We Are Not Saved

Two episodes ago I covered the disasters which can occur when we try to exercise too much control over natural systems. In the last episode I talked about how systems can be too controlling, and how it's better that a system be legible than that it attempt perfection. In this episode, much like peanut butter and chocolate, I combine these two great ideas into one fantastic idea, and explore how the way we combat wildfires in many ways resembles the way we fight political fires, and that both methods fail in similar ways.

In a recent newsletter, Matthew Yglesias suggested three steps for creating effective policies: It's easy for everyone, whether they agree with you or disagree with you, to understand what it is you say you are doing. It's easy for everyone to see whether or not you are, in fact, doing what you said you would do. It's easy for you and your team to meet the goal of doing the thing that you said you would do. These are great, but I think they could be applied far more broadly, which is exactly what I do in this episode.

This is the second half of my book reviews for books I finished in December. It contains reviews for: Countdown 1945: The Extraordinary Story of the 116 Days that Changed the World by: Chris Wallace Enemy At the Gates by: William Craig Necroscope by: Brian Lumley Draft No. 4: On the Writing Process by: John McPhee Bang For Your Buck by: Stefan Gasic The Darkest Winter by: Nick Johns C. S. Lewis Essay Collection & Other Short Pieces by: C. S. Lewis Book of Mormon Made Harder by: James E. Faulconer The Theological Foundations of the Mormon Religion by: Sterling M. McMurrin

This one was long enough, and book reviews sit poorly with podcasts in any event, that I decided to split it in two. This one has my monthly short personal update along with reviews for: Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed by: James C. Scott Status Anxiety by: Alain de Botton

Back at the beginning of 2017 I made some long term predictions, at the beginning of 2020 I made some short term predictions and the time has come to see how I'm doing on the long-term ones and how I did on the short term ones. Along with that is a reminder of my philosophy of predictions, lots of additional predictions for 2021, and then finally I announce some minor changes I'll be making going forward. Start listening to see what I got wrong, keep listening to see what I'm going to be wrong about this time next year, and then end the whole thing on a cliffhanger!

The number of teenage girls identifying as transgender has skyrocketed, by as much as 4,400% in the last decade by some accounts. What explains this staggeringly rapid and precipitous increase? Abigail Shrier thinks that these girls are falling pray to a peer contagion. A combination of the typical confusion and discomfort associated with puberty combined with a culture that celebrates transgender individuals. That in essence going through puberty is tough and being trans allows these girls to put that out of their mind while also gaining the approval of the peers and in many cases mimicking their peers who have already transitioned. In this podcast we examine the arguments and the evidence. Might she have a point?

Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years by: Vaclav Smil The Autobiography of Malcolm X: As Told to Alex Haley By: Malcolm X (Author), Alex Haley (Author), Laurence Fishburne (Narrator) Gang Leader for a Day: A Rogue Sociologist Takes to the Streets By: Sudhir Venkatesh Irreversible Damage: The Transgender Craze Seducing Our Daughters By: Abigail Shrier (Moved to the next episode) The Man Who Ate His Boots: The Tragic History of the Search for the Northwest Passage By: Anthony Brandt Bartlett's Familiar Quotations by: John Bartlett The Golden Age By: John C. Wright How to Start Your Homeschool: What I Learned My First 5 Years by: Taylia Clegg Bunker Destroying Their God: How I Fought My Evil Half-Brother to Save My Children By: Wallace Jeffs (Author), Shauna Packer (Author), Sherry Taylor (Author) The Neal A. Maxwell Quote Book by: Neal A. Maxwell

In politics there's always a choice between extremism and moderation. In this episode I discuss all the reasons for making moderation the default, and under what circumstances it might be appropriate abandon it and pursue extremism instead. My general conclusion is that there aren't many, but that it's a very difficult problem where clear lines are hard to draw.

Most people understand that voting is a way of making decisions via consensus, what people have forgotten is that voting is also a proxy for power. A much better proxy than those which have existed historically, and positively fantastic when compared to directly matching power via bloodshed and violence. If people have decided (as Trump supporters) evidently have, that the proxy of voting is no longer working then they can either decide that they have been outmatched in these different arenas, or they can seek other proxies of power to even things out. Up to and including a direct exercise of power, through resorting to bloodshed and violence.

Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies by: Geoffrey West From the Ruins of Empire: The Revolt Against the West and the Remaking of Asia by: Pankaj Mishra Just like You by: Nick Hornby Seven Types of Atheism by: John N. Gray Why Not Parliamentarism? by: Tiago Ribeiro dos Santos An Instinct for Dragons by: David E. Jones Aristophanes: The Complete Plays by: Aristophanes Translated by: Paul Roche Battle Ground by: Jim Butcher