The POWER Podcast

The power industry supply chain is facing unprecedented strain as utilities race to upgrade aging infrastructure against a backdrop of lengthening lead times and increasing project complexity. This supply chain gridlock arrives precisely when utilities face mounting pressure to modernize systems. As the industry confronts this growing crisis, innovations in procurement, manufacturing, and strategic planning are essential. “Utilities can optimize their supply chain for grid modernization projects by taking a collaborative approach between the services themselves and how they can support the projects, as well as having a partner to be able to leverage their sourcing capabilities and have the relationships with the right manufacturers,” Ian Rice, senior director of Programs and Services for Grid Services at Wesco, explained as a guest on The POWER Podcast. “At the end of the day, it’s how can the logistical needs be accounted for and taken care of by the partnered firm to minimize the overall delays that are going to naturally come and mitigate the risks,” he said. Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Wesco is a leading global supply chain solutions provider. Rice explained that through Wesco, utilities gain access to a one-stop solution for program services, project site services, and asset management. The company claims its tailored approach “ensures cost reduction, risk mitigation, and operational efficiencies, allowing utilities to deliver better outcomes for their customers.” “We take a really comprehensive approach to this,” said Rice. “In the utility market, we believe pricing should be very transparent.” To promote a high level of transparency, Wesco builds out special recovery models for its clients. “What this looks like is: we take a complete cradle-to-grave approach on the lifecycle of the said project or program, and typically, it could be up to nine figures—very, very large programs,” Rice explained. “It all starts with building that model and understanding the complexity. What are the inputs, what are the outputs, and what constraints are there in the short term as well as the long term? And, really, what’s the goal of that overall program?” The answers to those questions are accounted for in the construction of the model. “It all starts with demand management, which closely leads to a sourcing and procurement strategy,” Rice said. “From there, we can incorporate inventory control, and set up SOPs [standard operating procedures] of how we want to deal with the contractors and all the other stakeholders within that program or project. And that really ties into what’s going to be the project management approach, as well in setting up all the different processes, or even the returns and reclamation program. We’re really covering everything minute to minute, day to day, the entire duration of that project, and tying that into a singular model.” But that’s not all. Rice said another thing that sets Wesco apart from others in the market is when it takes this program or project approach, depending on the scale of it, the company remains agnostic when it comes to suppliers. “We’re doing procurement on behalf of our customers,” he said. “So, if they have direct relationships, we can facilitate that. If they’re working with other distributors, we can also manage that. The whole idea here is: what’s in the best interest of the customer to provide the most value.”

As the presidential inauguration loomed on the horizon in January this year, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Loan Programs Office (LPO) published a “year-in-review” article, highlighting accomplishments from 2024 and looking ahead to the future. It noted that the previous four years had been the most productive in the LPO’s history. “Under the Biden-Harris Administration, the Office has announced 53 deals totaling approximately $107.57 billion in committed project investment––approximately $46.95 billion for 28 active conditional commitments and approximately $60.62 billion for 25 closed loans and loan guarantees,” it said. Much of the funding for these investments came through the passing of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The LPO reported that U.S. clean energy investment more than doubled from $111 billion in 2020 to $236 billion in 2023, creating more than 400,000 clean energy jobs. The private sector notably led the way, enabled by U.S. government policy and partnerships. “There were 55 deals that we got across the finish line,” Jigar Shah, director of the LPO from March 2021 to January 2025, said as a guest on The POWER Podcast, while noting there were possibly 200 more projects that were nearly supported. “They needed to do more work on their end to improve their business,” he explained. That might have meant they needed to de-risk their feedstock agreement or their off-take agreement, for example, or get better quality contractors to do the construction of their project. “It was a lot of education work,” Shah said, “but I’m really proud of that work, because I think a lot of those companies, regardless of whether they used our office or not, were better for the interactions that they had with us.” A Framework for Success When asked about doling out funds, Shah viewed the term somewhat negatively. “As somebody who’s been an investor in my career, you don’t dole out money, because that’s how you lose money,” he explained. “What you do is you create a framework. And you tell people, ‘Hey, if you meet this framework, then we’ve got a loan for you, and if you don’t meet this framework, then we don’t have a loan for you.” Shah noted that the vast majority of the 400 to 500 companies that the LPO worked closely with during his tenure didn’t quite meet the framework. Still, most of those that did have progressed smoothly. “Everything that started construction is still under construction, and so, they’re all going to be completed,” said Shah. “I think all in all, the thesis worked. Certainly, there are many people who had a hard time raising equity or had a hard time getting to the finish line and final investment decision, but for those folks who got to final investment decision and started construction, I think they’re doing very well.” Notable Projects When asked which projects he was most excited about, Shah said, “All of them are equally exciting to me. I mean, that’s the beauty of the work I do.” He did, however, go on to mention several that stood out to him. Specifically, he pointed to the Wabash, Montana Renewables, EVgo, and Holtec Palisades projects, which were all supported under the LPO’s Title 17 Clean Energy Financing Program, as particularly noteworthy. Perhaps the most important of the projects Shah mentioned from a power industry perspective, was the Holtec Palisades endeavor. Valued at $1.52 billion, the loan guarantee will allow upgrading and repowering of the Palisades nuclear plant in Covert, Michigan, a first in U.S. history, which has spurred others to bring retired nuclear plants back online. “[It’s] super exciting to see our first nuclear plant being restarted, and as a result, the Constellation folks have decided to restart a nuclear reactor in Pennsylvania, and NextEra has decided to restart a nuclear reactor in Iowa. So, it’s great to have that catalytic impact,” said Shah.

The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) has for many years been evaluating emerging nuclear technologies, including small modular reactors, as part of technology innovation efforts aimed at developing the energy system of the future. TVA—the largest public power provider in the U.S., serving more than 10 million people in parts of seven states—currently operates seven reactors at three nuclear power plants: Browns Ferry, Sequoyah, and Watts Bar. Meanwhile, it’s also been investing in the exploration of new nuclear technology by pursuing small modular reactors (SMRs) at the Clinch River Nuclear (CRN) site in Tennessee. “TVA does have a very diverse energy portfolio, including the third-largest nuclear fleet [in the U.S.],” Greg Boerschig, TVA’s vice president for the Clinch River project, said as a guest on The POWER Podcast. “Our nuclear power plants provide about 40% of our electricity generated at TVA. So, this Clinch River project and our new nuclear program is building on a long history of excellence in nuclear at the Tennessee Valley.” TVA completed an extensive site selection process before choosing the CRN site as the preferred location for its first SMR. The CRN site was originally the site of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor project in the early 1980s. Extensive grading and excavation disturbed approximately 240 acres on the project site before the project was terminated. Upon termination of the project, the site was redressed and returned to an environmentally acceptable condition. The CRN property is approximately 1,200 acres of land located on the northern bank of the Clinch River arm of the Watts Bar Reservoir in Oak Ridge, Roane County, Tennessee. The CRN site has a number of significant advantages, which include two existing power lines that cross the site, easy access off of Tennessee State Route 58, and the fact that it is a brownfield site previously disturbed and characterized as a part of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor project. The Oak Ridge area is also noted to have a skilled local workforce, including many people familiar with the complexities of nuclear work. “The community acceptance here is really just phenomenal,” said Boerschig. “The community is very educated and very well informed.” TVA began exploring advanced nuclear technologies in 2010. In 2016, it submitted an application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for an Early Site Permit for one or more SMRs with a total combined generating capacity not to exceed 800 MW of electricity for the CRN site. In December 2019, TVA became the first utility in the nation to successfully obtain approval for an Early Site Permit from the NRC to potentially construct and operate SMRs at the site. While the decision to potentially build SMRs is an ongoing discussion as part of the asset strategy for TVA’s future generation portfolio, significant investments have been made in the Clinch River project with the goal of moving it forward. OPG has a BWRX-300 project well underway at its Darlington New Nuclear Project site in Clarington, Ontario, with construction expected to be complete by the end of 2028. While OPG is developing its project in parallel with the design process, TVA expects to wait for more design maturity before launching its CRN project. “As far as the standard design is concerned, we’re at the same pace, but overall, their project is about two years in front of ours,” said Boerschig. “And that’s by design—they are the lead plant for this effort.” In the meantime, there are two primary items on TVA’s to-do list. “Right now, the two biggest things that we have on our list are completing the standard design work, and then the construction permit application,” Boerschig said, noting the standard design is “somewhere north of 75% complete” and that TVA’s plan is to submit the construction permit application “sometime around mid-year of this year.”

A virtual power plant (VPP) is a network of decentralized, small- to medium-scale power generating units, flexible power consumers, and storage systems that are aggregated and operated as a single entity through sophisticated software and control systems. Unlike a traditional power plant that exists in a single physical location, a VPP is distributed across multiple locations but functions as a unified resource. VPPs are important to power grid operations because they provide grid flexibility. VPPs help balance supply and demand on the grid by coordinating many smaller assets to respond quickly to fluctuations. This becomes increasingly important as more intermittent renewable energy sources—wind and solar—are added to the grid. “A virtual power plant is essentially an aggregation of lots of different resources or assets from the grid,” Sally Jacquemin, vice president and general manager of Power & Utilities with AspenTech, said as a guest on The POWER Podcast. “As a whole, they have a bigger impact on the grid than any individual asset would have on its own. And so, you aggregate all these distributed energy resources and assets together to create a virtual power plant that can be dispatched to help balance the overall system supply to demand.” VPPs provide a way to effectively integrate and manage distributed energy resources such as rooftop solar, small wind turbines, battery storage systems, electric vehicles, and demand response programs. VPPs can reduce strain on the grid during peak demand periods by strategically reducing consumption or increasing generation from distributed sources, helping to avoid blackouts and reducing the need for expensive peaker plants. Other benefits provided by VPPs include enhancing grid resilience, enabling smaller energy resources to participate in electricity markets that would otherwise be inaccessible to them individually, and reducing infrastructure costs by making better use of existing assets and reducing peak demand. VPPs enable consumers to become “prosumers,” that is, both producers and consumers of energy, giving them more control over their energy use and potentially reducing their costs. “Virtual power plants are becoming important, not only for utilities, but also in the private sector,” Jacquemin explained. “Because of the commercial value of electricity rising and the market system rates, it’s now profitable for these virtual power plants in many markets due to the value of power that they can supply during these periods of low supply.” AspenTech is a leading industrial software partner, with more than 60 locations worldwide. The company’s solutions address complex environments where it is critical to optimize the asset design, operation, and maintenance lifecycle. AspenTech says its Digital Grid Management solutions “enable the resilient, sustainable, and intelligent utility of the future.” “At AspenTech Digital Grid Management, our software is in control rooms of utilities around the world,” said Jacquemin. “All utilities know they need to be investing in their digital solutions and modernizing their control room technology in order to meet the demands of the energy transition. So, utilities need to be focusing more time and more money to ensure that their software and their systems are capable of enabling that utility of the future.”

Net-demand energy forecasts are critical for competitive market participants, such as in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and similar markets, for several key reasons. For example, accurate forecasting helps predict when supply-demand imbalances will create price spikes or crashes, allowing traders and generators to optimize their bidding strategies. It’s also important for asset optimization. Power generators need to know when to commit resources to the market and at what price levels. Poor forecasting can lead to missed profit opportunities or operating assets when prices don’t cover costs. Fortunately, artificial intelligence (AI) is now capable of producing highly accurate forecasts from the growing amount of meter and weather data that is available. The complex and robust calculations performed by these machine-learning algorithms is well beyond what human analysts are capable of, making advance forecasting systems essential to utilities. Plus, they are increasingly valuable to independent power producers (IPPs) and other energy traders making decisions about their positions in the wholesale markets. Sean Kelly, co-founder and CEO of Amperon, a company that provides AI-powered forecasting solutions, said using an Excel spreadsheet as a forecasting tool was fine back in 2005 when he got started in the business as a power trader, but that type of system no longer works adequately today. “Now, we’re literally running at Amperon four to six models behind the scenes, with five different weather vendors that are running an ensemble each time,” Kelly said as a guest on The POWER Podcast. “So, as it gets more confusing, we’ve got to stay on top of that, and that’s where machine learning really kicks in.” The consequences of being ill-prepared can be dire. Having early and accurate forecasts can mean the difference between a business surviving or failing. Effects from Winter Storm Uri offer a case in point. Normally, ERCOT wholesale prices fluctuate from about $20/MWh to $50/MWh. During Winter Storm Uri (Feb. 13–17, 2021), ERCOT set the wholesale electricity price at its cap of $9,000/MWh due to extreme demand and widespread generation failures caused by the storm. This price remained in effect for approximately 4.5 days (108 hours). This 180-fold price increase had devastating financial impacts across the Texas electricity market. The financial fallout was severe. Several retail electricity providers went bankrupt, most notably Griddy Energy, which passed the wholesale prices directly to customers, resulting in some receiving bills of more than $10,000 for just a few days of power. “Our clients were very appreciative of the work we had at Amperon,” Kelly recalled. “We probably had a dozen or so clients at that time, and we told them on February 2 that this was coming,” he said. With that early warning, Kelly said Amperon’s clients were able to get out in front of the price swing and buy power at much lower rates. “Our forecasts go out 15 days, ERCOT’s forecasts only go out seven,” Kelly explained. “So, we told everyone, ‘Alert! Alert! This is coming!’ Dr. Mark Shipham, our in-house meteorologist, was screaming it from the rooftops. So, we had a lot of clients who bought $60 power per megawatt. So, think about buying 60s, and then your opportunity is 9,000. So, a lot of traders made money,” he said. “All LSEs—load serving entities—still got hit extremely bad, but they got hit a lot less bad,” Kelly continued. “I remember one client saying: ‘I bought power at 60, then I bought it at 90, then I bought it at 130, then I bought it at 250, because you kept telling me that load was going up and that this was getting bad.’ And they’re like, ‘That is the best expensive power I’ve ever bought. I was able to keep my company as a retail energy provider.’ And, so, those are just some of the ways that these forecasts are extremely helpful.”

When you think of innovative advancements in nuclear power technology, places like the Idaho National Laboratory and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology probably come to mind. But today, some very exciting nuclear power development work is being done in West Texas, specifically, at Abilene Christian University (ACU). That’s where Natura Resources is working to construct a molten salt–cooled, liquid-fueled reactor (MSR). “We are in the process of building, most likely, the country’s first advanced nuclear reactor,” Doug Robison, founder and CEO of Natura Resources, said as a guest on The POWER Podcast. Natura has taken an iterative, milestone-based approach to advanced reactor development and deployment, focused on efficiency and performance. This started in 2020 when the company brought together ACU’s NEXT Lab with Texas A&M University; the University of Texas, Austin; and the Georgia Institute of Technology to form the Natura Resources Research Alliance. In only four years, Natura and its partners developed a unique nuclear power system and successfully licensed the design. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued a construction permit for deployment of the system at ACU last September. Called the MSR-1, ACU’s unit will be a 1-MWth molten salt research reactor (MSRR). It is expected to provide valuable operational data to support Natura’s 100-MWe systems. It will also serve as a “world-class research tool” to train advanced reactor operators and educate students, the company said. Natura is not only focused on its ACU project, but it is also moving forward on commercial reactor projects. In February, the company announced the deployment of two advanced nuclear projects, which are also in Texas. These deployments, located in the Permian Basin and at Texas A&M University’s RELLIS Campus, represent significant strides in addressing energy and water needs in the state. “Our first was a deployment of a Natura commercial reactor in the Permian Basin, which is where I spent my career. We’re partnering with a Texas produced-water consortium that was created by the legislature in 2021,” said Robison. One of the things that can be done with the high process heat from an MSR is desalinization. “So, we’re going to be desalinating produced water and providing power—clean power—to the oil and gas industry for their operations in the Permian Basin,” said Robison. Meanwhile, at Texas A&M’s RELLIS Campus, which is located about eight miles northwest of the university’s main campus in College Station, Texas, a Natura MSR-100 reactor will be deployed. The initiative is part of a broader project known as “The Energy Proving Ground,” which involves multiple nuclear reactor companies. The project aims to bring commercial-ready small modular reactors (SMRs) to the site, providing a reliable source of clean energy for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Geothermal energy has been utilized by humans for millennia. While the first-ever use may be a mystery, we do know the Romans tapped into it in the first century for hot baths at Aquae Sulis (modern-day Bath, England). Since then, many other people and cultures have found ways to use the Earth’s underground heat to their benefit. Geothermal resources were used for district heating in France as far back as 1332. In 1904, Larderello, Italy, was home to the world’s first experiment in geothermal electricity generation, when five lightbulbs were lit. By 1913, the first commercial geothermal power plant was built there, which expanded to power the local railway system and nearby villages. However, one perhaps lesser-known geothermal concept revolves around energy storage. “It’s very much like pumped-storage hydropower, where you pump a lake up a mountain, but instead of going up a mountain, we’re putting that lake deep in the earth,” Cindy Taff, CEO of Sage Geosystems, explained as a guest on The POWER Podcast. Sage Geosystems’ technology utilizes knowledge gleaned from the oil and gas industry, where Taff spent more than 35 years as a Shell employee. “What we do is we drill a well. We’re targeting a very low-permeability formation, which is the opposite of what oil and gas is looking for, and quite frankly, it’s the opposite of what most geothermal technologies are looking for. That low permeability then allows you to place a fracture in that formation, and then operate that fracture like a balloon or like your lungs,” Taff explained. “When the demand is low, we use electricity to power an electric pump. We pump water into the fracture. We balloon that fracture open and store the water under pressure until a time of day that power demand peaks. Then, you open a valve at surface. That fracture is naturally going to close. It drives the water to surface. You put it through a Pelton turbine, which looks like a kid’s pinwheel. You spin the turbine, which spins the generator, and you generate electricity.” Unlike more traditional geothermal power generation systems that use hot water or steam extracted from underground geothermal reservoirs, Sage’s design uses what’s known as hot dry rock technology. To reach hot dry rock, drillers may have to go deeper to find desired formations, but these formations are much more common and less difficult to identify, which greatly reduces exploration risks. Taff said traditional geothermal energy developers face difficulties because they need to find three things underground: heat, water, and high-permeability formations. “The challenge is the exploration risk, or in other words, finding the resource where you’ve got the heat, the large body of water deep in the earth, as well as the permeability,” she said. “In hot dry rock geothermal, which is what we’re targeting, you’re looking only for that heat. We want a low-permeability formation, but again, that’s very prevalent.” Sage is now in the process of commissioning its first commercial energy storage project in Texas. “We’re testing the piping, and we’re function testing the generator and the Pelton turbine, so we’ll be operating that facility here in the next few weeks,” Taff said. Meanwhile, the company has also signed an agreement with the California Resources Corporation to establish a collaborative framework for pursuing commercial projects and joint funding opportunities related to subsurface energy storage and geothermal power generation in California. It also has ongoing district heating projects in Lithuania and Romania, and Taff said the U.S. Department of Defense has shown a lot of interest in the company’s geothermal technology. Additionally, Meta signed a contract for a 150-MW geothermal power generation system to supply one of its data centers.

Imagine a field of solar panels floating silently in the endless day of Earth’s orbit. Unlike their terrestrial cousins, this space-based solar array never faces nighttime, clouds, or atmospheric interference. Instead, they bathe in constant, intense sunlight, converting this endless stream of energy into electricity with remarkable efficiency. But the true innovation lies in how this power is transmitted to power grids on Earth. The electricity generated in space is converted into invisible beams of microwaves or laser light that pierce through the atmosphere with minimal losses. These beams are precisely aimed at receiving stations on Earth—collections of antennas or receivers known as “rectennas” that capture and reconvert the energy back into electricity that can be supplied to the power grid. This isn’t science fiction—it’s space-based solar power (SBSP), a technology that could revolutionize how clean energy is generated and distributed. While conventional solar panels on Earth can only produce power during daylight hours and are at the mercy of weather conditions, orbital solar arrays could beam massive amounts of clean energy to Earth 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, potentially transforming the global energy landscape.

Power grids operate like an intricate ballet of energy generation and consumption that must remain perfectly balanced at all times. The grid maintains a steady frequency (60 Hz in North America and 50 Hz in many other regions) by matching power generation to demand in real-time. Traditional power plants with large rotating turbines and generators play a crucial role in this balance through their mechanical inertia—the natural tendency of these massive spinning machines to resist changes in their rotational speed. This inertia acts as a natural stabilizer for the grid. When there’s a sudden change in power demand or generation, such as a large factory turning on or a generator failing, the rotational energy stored in these spinning masses automatically helps cushion the impact. The machines momentarily speed up or slow down slightly, giving grid operators precious seconds to respond and adjust other power sources. However, as we transition to renewable energy sources like solar and wind that don’t have this natural mechanical inertia, maintaining grid stability becomes more challenging. This is why grid operators are increasingly focusing on technologies like synthetic inertia from wind turbines, battery storage systems, and advanced control systems to replicate the stabilizing effects traditionally provided by conventional power plants. Alex Boyd, CEO of PSC, a global specialist consulting firm working in the areas of power systems and control systems engineering, believes the importance of inertia will lessen, and probably sooner than most people think. In fact, he suggested stability based on physical inertia will soon be the least-preferred approach. Boyd recognizes that his view, which was expressed while he was a guest on The POWER Podcast, is potentially controversial, but there is a sound basis behind his prediction. Power electronics-based systems utilize inverter-based resources, such as wind, solar, and batteries. These systems can detect and respond to frequency deviations almost instantaneously using fast frequency response mechanisms. This actually allows for much faster stabilization compared to mechanical inertia. Power electronics reduce the need for traditional inertia by enabling precise control of grid parameters like frequency and voltage. While they decrease the available physical inertia, they also decrease the amount of inertia required for stability through advanced control strategies. Virtual synchronous generators and advanced inverters can emulate inertia dynamically, offering tunable responses that adapt to grid conditions. For example, adaptive inertia schemes provide high initial inertia to absorb faults but reduce it over time to prevent oscillations. Power electronic systems address stability issues across a wide range of frequencies and timescales, including harmonic stability and voltage regulation. This is achieved through multi-timescale modeling and control techniques that are not possible with purely mechanical systems. Inverter-based resources allow for distributed coordination of grid services, such as frequency regulation and voltage support, enabling more decentralized grid operation compared to centralized inertia-centric systems. Power electronic systems are essential for grids with a high penetration of renewable energy sources, which lack inherent mechanical inertia. These systems ensure stability while facilitating the transition to low-carbon energy by emulating or replacing traditional generator functions. “I do foresee a time in the not-too-distant future where we’ll be thinking about how do we actually design a system so that we don’t need to be impacted so much by the physical inertia, because it’s preventing us from doing what we want to do,” said Boyd. “I think that time is coming. There will be a lot of challenges to overcome, and there’ll be a lot of learning that needs to be done, but I do think the time is coming.”

The rapid rise of data centers has put many power industry demand forecasters on edge. Some predict the power-hungry nature of the facilities will quickly create problems for utilities and the grid. ICIS, a data analytics provider, calculates that in 2024, demand from data centers in Europe accounted for 96 TWh, or 3.1% of total power demand. “Now, you could say it’s not a lot—3%—it’s just a marginal size, but I’m going to spice it up a bit with two additional layers,” Matteo Mazzoni, director of Energy Analytics at ICIS, said as a guest on The POWER Podcast. “One is: that power demand is very consolidated in just a small subset of countries. So, five countries account of over 60% of that European power demand. And within those five countries, which are the usual suspects in terms of Germany, France, the UK, Ireland, and Netherlands, half of that consumption is located in the FLAP-D market, which sounds like a fancy new coffee, but in reality is just five big cities: Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin.” Predicting where and how data center demand will grow in the future is challenging, however, especially when looking out more than a few years. “What we’ve tried to do with our research is to divide it into two main time frames,” Mazzoni explained. “The next three to five years, where we see our forecast being relatively accurate because we looked at the development of new data centers, where they are being built, and all the information that are currently available. And, then, what might happen past 2030, which is a little bit more uncertain given how fast technology is developing and all that is happening on the AI [artificial intelligence] front.” Based on its research, ICIS expects European data center power demand to grow 75% by 2030, to 168 TWh. “It’s going to be a lot of the same,” Mazzoni predicted. “So, those big centers—those big cities—are still set to attract most of the additional data center consumption, but we see the emergence of also new interesting markets, like the Nordics and to a certain extent also southern Europe with Iberia [especially Spain] being an interesting market.” Yet, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty around demand projections. Advances in liquid cooling methods will likely reduce data center power usage. That’s because liquid cooling offers more efficient heat dissipation, which translates directly into lower electricity consumption. Additionally, there are opportunities for further improvement in power usage effectiveness (PUE), which is a widely used data center energy efficiency metric. At the global level, the average PUE has decreased from 2.5 in 2007 to a current average of 1.56, according to the ICIS report. However, new facilities consistently achieve a PUE of 1.3 and sometimes much better. Google, which has many state-of-the-art and highly efficient data centers, reported a global average PUE of 1.09 for its facilities over the last year. Said Mazzoni, “An expert in the field told us when we were doing our research, when tech moves out of the equation and you have energy engineers stepping in, you start to see that a lot of efficiency improvements will come, and demand will inevitably fall.” Thus, data center load growth projections should be taken with a grain of salt. “The forecast that we have beyond 2030 will need to be revised,” Mazzoni predicted. “If we look at the history of the past 20 years—all analysts and all forecasts around load growth—they all overshoot what eventually happened. The first time it happened when the internet arrived—there was obviously great expectations—and then EVs, electric vehicles, and then heat pumps. But if we look at, for example, last year—2024—European power demand was up by 1.3%, U.S. power demand was up by 1.8%, and probably weather was the main driver behind that growth.”