In the Company of Mavericks

I am spending an increasing amount of time on Substack. It features some excellent content and a diverse range of perspectives. Something that is valuable for any investor seeking non-consensus views and opinions. A recent favourite of mine has been The Brawl Street Journal, a source that posts on “second-order thinking on Europe’s markets, energy, and the collision between regulation and reality.”The man behind this blog holds a PhD in international economic law, with a background in World Trade Organisation (remember them?) dispute settlements, and has worked with an international law firm. He also advised banking clients on sanctions law following Russia’s invasion of Crimea. He then worked in various economic and regulatory roles within Germany’s civil service, giving him a front-row seat on how subsidies, regulations, and political priorities work in practice. The Brawl Street Journal was launched last year to help investors question the consensus, which its creator believes has been infiltrated by propaganda, as defined by the French sociologist Jacques Ellul, who wrote a book of that name in the 1960s. We discuss how propaganda is often an emergent phenomenon of well-intentioned people, rather than the simplistic, malign, authoritarian means of control we usually envision. We discuss how net zero has become one of several propaganda myths of the established European consensus that have weakened the EU and wider European economies. We also discuss the potential for a net-zero-induced crisis, similar to the global financial crisis and what the prospects might be for Europe to avoid this outcome. As always, what you are about to hear is not any kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick behind The Brawl Street Journal. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Is China investable? If so, how do you go about it? What are the basic ground rules? Recently, I spoke to an American fund manager living in the UK whose life has been intertwined with China since he was a young boy. Rufus Frazier has a long career investing in emerging markets, and he believes China offers some of the best investment opportunities available anywhere in the world. In a fascinating discussion, we cover the macro backdrop to China and the perceived risks, such as the Taiwan issue, property rights and the historically poor returns from Chinese equities over the last couple of decades, when its economic growth has been so strong. What are we missing about this disconnect, and why might this be changing?   Rufus explains why the scale and structure of China’s market makes stock picking essential, he talks about the things to look for as well as the sectors and stocks to avoid.For example, China’s Uber, Didi, seems fine, but its huge battery manufacturer with a dominant global market position, CATL, is more problematic. Finally, Rufus puts the opportunity for Chinese equities into its broader EM context. Where are the other “hot” emerging markets? In his view, mainly in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Now comes the bit where I remind you that none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully enjoyment. Please take professional advice before investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets. And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Rufus Frazier.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity.    

Charlie Morris is an investor, entrepreneur, and advocate for hard assets. Charlie has 27 years of experience in fund management, with a reputation for actively managing multi-asset portfolios. Charlie was previously the Head of Absolute Return at HSBC Global Asset Management, where he managed $3bn of assets.He writes research for private clients, providing actionable model portfolios that cover equities, bonds, commodities, and other alternative assets. Having discovered gold in the early 2000s, Charlie was an early entrant into the Bitcoin rabbit hole. In 2013, Charlie founded ByteTree, which he initially intended to be the “Bloomberg for Bitcoin”. However, he was unable to find a workable revenue model. With start-ups, being early is just another way of being wrong. In 2022, he launched a Bitcoin and gold ETF (BOLD SW). A fund that remains unauthorised in the UK, albeit available to sophisticated investors on other European exchanges. As Charlie says, he developed BOLD as a new take on the traditional 60:40 portfolio.He identified a valuable low level of correlation between its constituents, Bitcoin and gold, which he has exploited to deliver impressive results.  Towards the end of this chat, we trade thoughts on the latest UK microcap craze for Bitcoin treasury companies, which Charlie believes is unsustainable and just the result of regulatory arbitrage.  And before we get going, here's the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but just for information and hopefully entertainment purposes only. You should take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Charlie Morris.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.https://bold.report/https://www.trustpilot.com/review/bytetree.com?utm_medium=trustbox&utm_source=Minihttps://www.bytetree.com/the-multi-asset-investor/

Charlie Morris is an investor, entrepreneur, and advocate for hard assets. Charlie has 27 years of experience in fund management, with a reputation for actively managing multi-asset portfolios. Charlie was previously the Head of Absolute Return at HSBC Global Asset Management, where he managed $3bn of assets.He writes research for private clients, providing actionable model portfolios that cover equities, bonds, commodities, and other alternative assets. Having discovered gold in the early 2000s, Charlie was an early entrant into the Bitcoin rabbit hole. In 2013, Charlie founded ByteTree, which he initially intended to be the “Bloomberg for Bitcoin”. However, he was unable to find a workable revenue model. With start-ups, being early is just another way of being wrong. In 2022, he launched a Bitcoin and gold ETF (BOLD SW). A fund that remains unauthorised in the UK, albeit available to sophisticated investors on other European exchanges. As Charlie says, he developed BOLD as a new take on the traditional 60:40 portfolio.He identified a valuable low level of correlation between its constituents, Bitcoin and gold, which he has exploited to deliver impressive results.  Towards the end of this chat, we trade thoughts on the latest UK microcap craze for Bitcoin treasury companies, which Charlie believes is unsustainable and just the result of regulatory arbitrage.  And before we get going, here's the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but just for information and hopefully entertainment purposes only. You should take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Charlie Morris.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.https://bold.report/https://www.trustpilot.com/review/bytetree.com?utm_medium=trustbox&utm_source=Minihttps://www.bytetree.com/the-multi-asset-investor/

Back in April, I had the chance to talk with three people who are at the business end of UK-based boutique fund managers. The funds they help run and develop have all been featured in previous episodes. Jamie Carter of Variis is a veteran of the boutique landscape, having helped form Oldfield Partners. He is now CEO of a London partnership developing an emerging markets strategy aimed largely at US endowments. The Variis CIO, Leila Cardouche, in an episode from October last year, illustrated the huge potential that an actively managed EM strategy offers.    Ed Hugo partners with Alyx Wood at Kernow Asset Management, where they are having success running a long/short UK equity strategy. Alyx last appeared on the pod in November 2023 to discuss why it might be a good idea to invest in the UK. Meanwhile, Jackson Wray joined Dowgate Wealth in a business development role for its two UK value strategies, Onward Opportunities, a pro-active microcap strategy managed by Laurence Hulse (also last on the podcast in November 2023) and Cape Wrath, a concentrated UK deep value fund managed by Adam Rackley (who appeared in Market Capitulations and Narrative Shifts in June last year). Jackson was previously a professional rugby player with Saracens before retiring in 2023, and he draws some interesting comparisons between the worlds of competitive sport and asset management. All the funds these guys work on have managers with successful track records, but what are the issues when it comes to setting up, complying with the regulations, growing AUM, and how do they deal with things when the going gets tough, not according to plan? These are the thoughts of three people who live and breathe these issues, and it is a fascinating discussion with some interesting pointers for anyone considering setting up themselves.  Ed says you need to be mad, Jamie says the regulators could do more to help, and Jackson stresses the importance of being honest with yourself and your teammates.  For full disclosure, I have investments in the Kernow Equity Fund, Onward Opportunities, and the Cape Wrath Fund. And before we get into it, here’s the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment advice, but purely for your information and hopefully entertainment. You should take personal, professional financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.   Please enjoy my conversation with Jamie, Ed and Jackson.       Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Back in April, I had the chance to talk with three people who are at the business end of UK-based boutique fund managers. The funds they help run and develop have all been featured in previous episodes. Jamie Carter of Variis is a veteran of the boutique landscape, having helped form Oldfield Partners. He is now CEO of a London partnership developing an emerging markets strategy aimed largely at US endowments. The Variis CIO, Leila Cardouche, in an episode from October last year, illustrated the huge potential that an actively managed EM strategy offers.    Ed Hugo partners with Alyx Wood at Kernow Asset Management, where they are having success running a long/short UK equity strategy. Alyx last appeared on the pod in November 2023 to discuss why it might be a good idea to invest in the UK. Meanwhile, Jackson Wray joined Dowgate Wealth in a business development role for its two UK value strategies, Onward Opportunities, a pro-active microcap strategy managed by Laurence Hulse (also last on the podcast in November 2023) and Cape Wrath, a concentrated UK deep value fund managed by Adam Rackley (who appeared in Market Capitulations and Narrative Shifts in June last year). Jackson was previously a professional rugby player with Saracens before retiring in 2023, and he draws some interesting comparisons between the worlds of competitive sport and asset management. All the funds these guys work on have managers with successful track records, but what are the issues when it comes to setting up, complying with the regulations, growing AUM, and how do they deal with things when the going gets tough, not according to plan? These are the thoughts of three people who live and breathe these issues, and it is a fascinating discussion with some interesting pointers for anyone considering setting up themselves.  Ed says you need to be mad, Jamie says the regulators could do more to help, and Jackson stresses the importance of being honest with yourself and your teammates.  For full disclosure, I have investments in the Kernow Equity Fund, Onward Opportunities, and the Cape Wrath Fund. And before we get into it here’s the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment advice but purely for your information and hopefully entertainment. You should take personal, professional financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.   Please enjoy my conversation with Jamie, Ed and Jackson.       Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

In this engaging conversation, Doomberg, Substack's top financial commentator and energy expert, provides penetrating insights from his chicken coop in flyover country. He discusses the rising tide of populism and the surprising impact of AI on oil prices, linking it to U.S. shale and natural gas demand. Doomberg offers a candid take on the post-Ukraine energy landscape in Europe, the failures of sanctions, and the evolving political dynamics in the U.S. and U.K., all while critiquing current energy policies and projecting future geopolitical shifts.

I recently had another chance to talk to Substack’s No. 1 financial commentator, Doomberg, as he dialled in from his chicken coup in flyover country.  It has been some 15 months since we last spoke, a time when Rishi Sunak was Prime Minister and Joe Biden was President.   Much has happened subsequently in areas of energy policy, energy markets, politics, and global trade and conflict. And I was keen to catch up.  Doomberg utilises his expertise in understanding our fundamental and complex energy requirements and how they impact the broader macro and geopolitical landscape. And, as usual, he does not pull any punches in his well-reasoned views.  We discuss the rise of populism and the long-term outlook for energy supply and demand. In particular, how the additive energy requirements of AI might counterintuitively lead to much lower oil prices. It’s all to do with the unique economics of US shale and AI’s enormous demand for US natural gas. Doomberg also offers a no-holds-barred view of the outlook for post-Ukraine war Europe, including the need for political realignment and an explanation of why sanctions fail.  Whatever you think of his views, it is hard to fault the reasoning of his logic, but of course, none of what you hear is advice of any kind and is only for your information and entertainment. As always, you should take personal financial advice prior to investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets.  And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the green chicken, Doomberg. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Joe Bryan is a former investment bank derivatives trader turned sports betting entrepreneur who, during lockdown, went down the proverbial Bitcoin rabbit hole.   After Joe exited the company that bought his sporting odds business last year, a friend invited him on a weekend away. Each guest had to prepare a short talk to lead a discussion on a topic of their choice. Joe chose Bitcoin; it was his passion and his specialist subject.However, it's a big subject and he didn’t know where to start. So, assuming no prior knowledge, he told a story explaining why Bitcoin exists and what it fixes. He called his presentation, “What’s the Problem?," and Bitcoin was deliberately not mentioned until the last slide.The success of his pitch encouraged him to make a video, and earlier this year, Joe launched What’s The Problem? on YouTube and X. The film tells the story of two identical countries with perfect economies and perfect money, save for the existence of a big red button only for use in case of emergency in the country run by Fiatello. For the avoidance of doubt, the big red button equates to a central bank and today’s monetary policy. In so doing, Joe explains the wide range of common societal problems that stem from fiat money. These include loss of trust, obesity, family breakdowns, addiction, wealth inequality, and, of course, inflation. Joe leads his audience to the door of the Bitcoin rabbit hole. He wants to spread the word because, as he sees it, Bitcoin is inevitable; everyone will find it in their own time, but eventually everyone will get drawn in, and they will own it at their own price. Joe is a Bitcoin Maximalist who points to the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as evidence that there is no stopping this train. Of course, he could be wrong, and as always, what you are about to hear is not investment or any other type of advice. It is for your critical evaluation and is only for your information and entertainment. Always do your own research and take professional advice tailored to your own requirements before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.    And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Joe Bryan. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Joe Bryan is a former investment bank derivatives trader turned sports betting entrepreneur who, during lockdown, went down the proverbial Bitcoin rabbit hole.   Having exited from the company that bought his sporting odds business last year, a friend invited Joe on a weekend away. Each guest had to prepare a short talk to lead a discussion on a topic of their choice. Joe chose Bitcoin, it was his passion and his specialist subject.However, it's a big subject and he didn’t know where to start. So, assuming no prior knowledge, he told a story explaining why Bitcoin exists and what it fixes. He called his presentation, “What’s the Problem?," and Bitcoin was deliberately not mentioned until the last slide.The success of his pitch encouraged him to make a video, and earlier this year, Joe launched What’s The Problem? on YouTube and X. The 40-minute film tells the story of two identical countries with perfect economies and perfect money, save for the existence of a big red button only for use in case of emergency in the country run by Fiatello. For the avoidance of doubt, the big red button equates to a central bank and today’s monetary policy. In so doing, Joe explains the wide range of common societal problems that stem from fiat money. These include loss of trust, obesity, family breakdowns, addiction, wealth inequality, and, of course, inflation. Joe leads his audience to the door of the Bitcoin rabbit hole. He wants to spread the word because, as he sees it, Bitcoin is inevitable; everyone will find it in their own time, but eventually everyone will get drawn in, and they will own it at their own price. Joe is a Bitcoin Maximalist who points to the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as evidence that there is no stopping this train. Of course, he could be wrong, and as always, what you are about to hear is not investment or any other type of advice. It is for your critical evaluation and is only for your information and entertainment. Always do your own research and take professional advice tailored to your own requirements before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.    And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Joe Bryan. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.