In the Company of Mavericks

Supply is Measurable, Demand is Storytelling - Capital Cycle Investing with Django Davidson of Hosking Partners.  In his legendary book Capital Account, Chancellor said that:  Over the long run, it is a company’s return on capital, not changes in quarterly earnings, which primarily determines the direction of its share price. The return on capital of any company is largely subject to the state of competition within its industry. Simple stuff, but this process happens in cycles; capital is attracted to higher returns and is withdrawn when returns fall. Critically, it is an approach to investing that focuses on supply conditions rather than expected but uncertain future demand.  So, as capital cycle investing came into prominence during the dotcom boom and bust, it is unsurprisingly making a comeback today. And it is Django’s view that we are in the early phases of a new long-term capital cycle, and the world, as he sees it, has some huge valuation discrepancies to unwind. We had a fascinating chat.  

The monetary metals, gold and silver and so-called digital gold, or Bitcoin, have had an unusual few months.   As recently as September last year, the gold price was $3,500/oz, silver was $40/oz, and a Bitcoin was priced at around $110,000. Since then Gold rose by over 50% to $5,400 / oz before correcting to $5,000 / oz or up 40%; silver rose nearly 200% to $115 / oz before correcting to $80/oz up 90% and while all this was going on the price of Bitcoin more than halved peak to trough before stabilising down 40% at c $70,000. So, why the volatility spike? What just happened to the debasement trade? Has the newly nominated Fed Chair changed everything? Is AI or quantum computing about to kill Bitcoin? Is the FT right? Is the Bitcoin price still $70, 000 too high?    To help dig into what we have just experienced, I was joined last week by two friends of the pod and long-term advocates of precious metals and Bitcoin, so-called outside money, to try to better understand the drivers behind these volatile asset prices and how to assess where things might go from here. Dominic Frisby, of the Flying Frisby Substack, has written books on Bitcoin and gold, and multi-asset manager Charlie Morris of ByteTree is the founder of the BOLD (Bitcoin & Gold) Fund, which recently launched on the London Stock Exchange. It was a timely discussion in which we tried to dissect the different drivers of these asset prices and what has changed as a result of these dramatic moves. But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment too. You should seek personal financial advice and do your own research before investing a penny in these crazy markets.         And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Dominic Frisby and Charlie Morris. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

Last week, I spoke with two longstanding advocates of outside money and the debasement trade: wealth manager Charlie Morris, the founder of the BOLD (Bitcoin and gold fund) and author, Substacker and all-round renaissance man, Dominic Frisby.My question to them was: WTF is happening to gold, silver, and Bitcoin, and following their extraordinary price actions over recent months, where to now? Please subscribe to ITCOM, where you listen to your podcasts, so you don't miss the full episode later this week, along with other great guests and topics lined up over the coming weeks. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.   

Davos Man, The Revelation & Capital RotationFor this episode, I chat with Roger Lee, Head of Equity Strategy at Cavendish and a City veteran with almost 30 years in the equity market. Roger started his broking career with Cazenove, then worked at HSBC James Capel, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and, most recently, as Head of UK Equity Strategy at Investec.   Roger is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants, a Physics graduate and a frustrated Politician.For this discussion, I wanted to talk to Roger about politics and how it has come to dominate markets over recent years. He puts today’s seemingly chaotic geopolitics and rather depressing UK domestic politics into a useful historical context. It was an absorbing and illuminating chat with some suggestions on how markets might play out over the coming months. But as ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; it is for your information and, hopefully, entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice and DYOR before investing a penny in these volatile markets.  And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Roger Lee.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

I spoke last week with Roger Lee, Market Strategist at London broker, Cavendish.We had a great conversation, sharing views on how politics have impacted markets over the span of our professional careers. Particularly we discuss how we are in revelationary era for Davos Man, the global elite and the interests of the ordinary man. And how the West can no longer afford the cost of the state. Roger talks about his ideas of how Trump's policy volatility and the impact of the AI card cycle has and will continue to impact financial markets.Dropping soon on all good podcast apps. If you want to listen to this and future episodes, be sure to subscribe to In The Company of Mavericks. 

Simple But Not Easy– The Investment Wisdom of Richard OldfieldRichard Oldfield, Founder of Oldfield Partners and author of Simple But Not Easy. We discuss the psychology of value investing, the structural flaws of modern asset management, and the challenges of navigating the bifurcated markets of the mid-2020s.Episode OverviewIn this episode, veteran investor Richard Oldfield debunks myths about the finance industry, arguing that successful investing is "simple but not easy." Drawing on decades of experience—from the 1970s inflation era to the AI boom of 2025—Oldfield explains why value investing is a character trait rather than a learned skill, why "doing nothing" is often the best strategy in a crisis, and why investors should treat the stock market like a casino where the odds vary wildly depending on which "table" you sit at.Key TakeawaysValue Investing is In the Blood. Oldfield argues that true value investors are born, not made. It requires a contrarian temperament that naturally gravitates toward unloved assets—a trait that is "simple" to understand but psychologically challenging ("not easy") to execute.Growth vs. Value. Oldfield believes value provides a "margin of safety" that prevents the ground from opening up beneath you, as it does with growth stocks. He discusses his view of an exciting future for value versus growth. Index Hugging. Oldfield is a fierce critic of large asset management firms, arguing they inevitably drift toward mediocrity and "index hugging" (mimicking the market to avoid being fired). He advocates small, independent firms that can maintain "distance" from the noise of Wall Street and the City, enabling independent thought.A Checklist for Selecting Managers: When choosing a fund manager, Oldfield warns against relying on past performance, calling it a "trap". Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

A preview of the upcoming episode of In the Company of Mavericks, Simple But Not Easy with Richard Oldfield. Hosted by Jeremy McKeown, this podcast series delivers conversations with people who dare to be different. Listen to this trailer and follow now to catch the full release and other exciting content on its way to your ears. 

In this episode, we move beyond the typical hype surrounding cryptocurrency and digital assets to dissect the plumbing of the global financial system. To do this, we have a panel of industry insiders:You will hear from Steve Whyman, who previously ran Fidelity International’s debt capital markets business, where he built their investment thesis for digital assets from scratch. Joining him is Ian Hunt, a 40-year veteran of the buy-side who designed the very first ledger for a tokenised fund launched in the UK market. Rounding out the panel is Marvin, an economist and returning "friend of the pod," who brings his critical geopolitical lens to the discussion.Our guests argue that the current financial ecosystem is not just inefficient, but fundamentally "absurd", filled with intermediaries that add cost without adding value. They contend that we are standing at a precipice: we can either "retool" old processes with new tech, or undergo a paradigm shift toward "composability"—a system in which smart contracts self-execute and assets are built from the ground up as tokens.This conversation goes far beyond technical theory.The panel explores:• How tokenisation will democratise wealth, allowing individuals to invest mere pence into equities, bonds, and private assets.• The massive geopolitical threat to London’s dominance, as self-executing contracts may remove the need for English Common Law in global debt markets.• How the rise of US-backed stablecoins could act as a foreign policy tool to counter China and destabilise economies in the Global South.Stay tuned until the end for an existential risk to the Euro and the European Union: a flight to digital dollars could trigger a major liquidity crisis.

A lively conversation about tokenisation and how blockchain could let people buy equities and bonds for mere pence. Discussion of smart contracts acting as global disintermediators and the geopolitical shifts that could follow. Examination of stablecoin adoption in dollarised emerging markets and stark predictions about major financial disruption ahead.

Is silver's price spike a bubble, or an early warning of government confiscation for AI data centres and military needs? Craig Tindale, Australian investor and essayist, argues the West has lost touch with the physical economy — and national capitalism is our only path back.In this episode:• Why Craig sees silver regulation or confiscation coming, or where we rip out solar panels for their silver content. • How Western policy has detached from real-world physics• Lessons from 40 years of upgrading Asian manufacturing, banks & central banks• Why “national capitalism” is the West’s last hope• The real economic operating system we’ve forgottenTimestamps:0:00 – Intro & Craig’s background4:44 – The West’s detachment from physical reality12:24 – Silver: not a bubble, but a strategic signal20:26 – National capitalism vs globalism29.04 – Lessons from Asia’s economic transformation38:03 – Final thoughts & provocative outlookFor information & entertainment only – not financial advice. Always do your own research or consult a professional before investing.Did you enjoy this? If so, please leave a 5-star review — it really helps the show reach more listeners! Subscribe for weekly deep dives into markets, economics and the investment world.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.