The Debate

Another deadline day, another ultimatum, another surprise turn from the US president. The same Donald Trump who may or may not send ground troops to try to secure the Strait of Hormuz is now claiming that his administration is talking with the Iranians, thus holding off on hitting critical infrastructure. Trump's messaging since the start of this war has been keeping friends and foes alike guessing. That's in stark contrast to his Israeli allies, who seem to be embracing a fight many of its leaders have been dreaming of for decades. 

The Middle East War is now in its 20th day, with a perceived split in US and Israeli strategy emerging. Donald Trump says Israel bombed Iran's gas field "without his knowledge". Then Trump, perhaps playing catch-up, threatened to "blow up" Iran's South Pars gas field if Iran strikes Qatar; a move that experts say would literally explode the region. 

On Day 19 of the war in the Middle East, there have been extensive air strikes, drone attacks and missiles launched. Fallout is spreading far beyond the so-called theatre of war. What's the plan in Iran? Donald Trump finds himself increasingly between a rock and a hard place. But at least he can count on his loyal MAGA followers. Or can he?

Ali Larijani was the head of Iran's Security Council and a key voice in the ear of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Gholamreza Soleimani was the head of the Basij militia. Both were pillars of Iran's security apparatus. If they have indeed been taken out, the question is who replaces them, and will they take Iran down an even more hardline path?

It's Day 17 of the war in the Middle East and as the missiles and drones keep falling, the US president has done a U-turn on needing help from his friends and allies. Donald Trump is calling now for a coalition to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. The US strikes on Iran's Kharg Island on Friday sent a message to Tehran, but did not take away the potential threat to shipping in and out of the Persian Gulf.

Warfare is always evolving, sometimes slowly: Napoleon’s armies travelled little differently from those of Julius Caesar. At other times, change comes faster than commanders can process, as the futile carnage of the First World War showed. The pace of change on the battlefield today? Fast – very fast.

One war can fuel another. After the United States and Israel launched an operation that began, on day one, with the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Donald Trump expressed surprise at Tehran’s decision to draw in Gulf oil producers and disrupt global supplies.

Why this war of Donald Trump’s choosing? As death and destruction widen in Iran and across the region, and as oil and gas markets take fright, the US president’s reasons for launching what his administration calls Operation Epic Fury continue to shift, as do the stated scale and duration.

Second week of a war seen more than ever as a massive gamble by the US and Israel: strikes on oil installations in Tehran prompting retaliation across the Gulf. Also blown away are claims that disruptions to global energy security would be only a passing blip.

Who's paying for this war? First and foremost, the people of the Middle East, who are directly in harm's way. But who pays the financial cost if Iran continues to target the lifeline for the region's oil and gas? Maritime employers out of London are officially designating the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and the Persian and Arabian Gulf a "warlike operations area". We ask what that means and how much pain is to come.