Australia in the World

Stephen Dziedzic, Senior ABC foreign affairs reporter with on‑the‑ground Asia‑Pacific experience, breaks down a frantic 48 hours in global diplomacy. He walks through US signals about Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. He examines implications for Australia’s alliance choices, regional reactions in Southeast Asia, and the role of LNG and energy statecraft in shaping strategic options.

Now in its fifth week, the Iran war may be about to enter its most dangerous phase. In a shorter update this episode, Darren assesses what he sees as four important dynamics as President Trump’s new extended 6 April deadline approaches: (1) the collapse of negotiations and the simultaneous buildup of U.S. ground forces in the region; (2) why seizing Kharg Island or Iran’s enriched uranium may be tactically feasible but strategically self-defeating; (3) the widening of the conflict as the Houthis enter the war and the economic damage compounds beyond recovery; and (4) why the regime change that is actually occurring in Tehran — toward a more radical, IRGC-dominated system — cuts directly against the logic of further escalation. If you've been following this series, this is the episode where the threads of the past month converge on a single question: does Washington recognise the strategic trap it is walking into, or does it fall in? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Dan Lamothe, "Pentagon Prepares for Weeks of Ground Operations in Iran," The Washington Post, 29 March 2026: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/28/trump-iran-ground-troops-marines/ Alexander Ward et al, "Trump Weighs Military Operation to Extract Iran's Uranium," The Wall Street Journal, 30 March 2026: https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-weighs-military-operation-to-extract-irans-uranium-37427c8b Edward Luce, "Donald Trump Says US Could 'Take the Oil in Iran,'" Financial Times, 30 March 2026: https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1 Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz, twitter / x profile: https://x.com/citrinowicz

Three weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, Darren looks to international relations theory — particularly the bargaining and war termination frameworks associated with James Fearon — to explain why this conflict is so resistant to ending. He organises his thinking around two conditions for war termination: the existence of a mutually acceptable deal, and a credible mechanism for enforcing it. Neither condition is met, and the war is actively making both harder to achieve. Both sides are pursuing cost imposition, but with incompatible visions of what peace looks like. The US is destroying Iran’s military capacity; Iran is weaponising the Strait of Hormuz and attacking Gulf energy infrastructure. Darren examines why Trump’s coercive credibility has been undermined by the South Pars episode, why Iran’s energy war may be hardening rather than softening its neighbours’ resolve, and what Oman’s foreign minister’s extraordinary public intervention reveals about Gulf anger at both Iran and the United States. The episode offers two speculative theories for how the war might end — one centring on Trump’s psychology and capacity for narrative reinvention, the other on whether China could help solve the credible commitment problem by offering Iran something the US cannot. It closes with a reflection on what it means for analysts, governments, and markets when the most consequential variable in the system is a single unpredictable leader. A postscript addresses Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, issued hours before recording, threatening to destroy Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links The Economist, “There is plenty of scope for the Iran war to intensify,” 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/03/19/there-is-plenty-of-scope-for-the-iran-war-to-intensify Malcolm Moore, Rachel Millard and Verity Ratcliffe, “‘Armageddon scenario’ for gas markets as Qatar hit by missiles,” Financial Times, 19 March 2026: https://www.ft.com/content/5b66d91f-f94a-4ea1-b90f-ce62ccb15d50 James Fearon, “Rationalist Explanations for War,” International Organization, 49(3), 1995: https://web.stanford.edu/group/fearon-research/cgi-bin/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Rationalist-Explanations-for-War.pdf RAND Corporation, Theories of Victory, Perspectives PEA1743-1, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA1743-1.html Brynn Tannehill, “Why the Iran War Could Last Far Longer Than Either Side Wants to Admit,” Byline Times, 20 March 2026: https://bylinetimes.com/2026/03/20/why-the-iran-war-could-last-far-longer-than-either-side-wants-to-admit/ Yaroslav Trofimov, “Iran Believes It’s Winning — and Wants a Steep Price to End the War,” Wall Street Journal, 20 March 2026: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-negotiations-demands-85555522 Adam Tooze and Cameron Abadi, Ones and Tooze podcast, “Economic Impact of Iran War,” 21 March 2026: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckRRxpoUoPc Thomas Wright, “The Disappearing Off-Ramp in Iran,” The Atlantic, 17 March 2026: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/03/iran-victory-trump/686411/ Badr Albusaidi, “America’s friends must help extricate it from an unlawful war,” The Economist, 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2026/03/18/americas-friends-must-help-extricate-it-from-an-unlawful-war The Economist, “Operation Blind Fury,” 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/19/war-in-iran-is-making-donald-trump-weaker-and-angrier Jake Sullivan and John Finer, The Long Game podcast, Week 3 episode (interview with Helima Croft), 21 March 2026: https://staytuned.substack.com/p/transcript-the-iran-war-energy-crisis David Sanger, “Trump Is Finally Eyeing an Exit From Iran. But Will He Take It?” New York Times, 21 March 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/us/politics/trump-iran-offramp.html  

Two weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, Darren uses Robert Pape's cost-benefit framework to assess where things stand. The tactical achievements are real — two-thirds of Iran's missile launchers destroyed, its navy sunk, its leadership decapitated — but the probability of converting those gains into durable strategic outcomes is low, and the costs are mounting fast. On the military side, interceptor stocks are being depleted at unsustainable rates, and missile defence assets may be being redeployed from South Korea in a move that achieves what Chinese coercion could not. Economically, Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered what may be the largest oil supply disruption in history, with cascading effects through gas, fertiliser, and food markets arriving at the worst possible moment in the agricultural calendar. Strategically, Russia is profiting, China is learning, Gulf allies are furious, and the non-proliferation incentive structure has been inverted. Darren assesses the range of plausible outcomes — from a painful but temporary shock to a nuclear-armed Iran within eighteen months — and examines the factors that will determine how the war ends, including US-Israel divergence, Trump's contradictory signals, and Iran's determination to ensure this is the last time it is attacked. He closes with an observation about weaponised interdependence: that a sanctioned middle power with cheap drones and a narrow strait has exposed the gap between America's capacity to destroy and its capacity to control. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Robert Pape, Bombing to win (1996): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/761594.Bombing_to_Win Caitlin Talmadge, “Closing Time: Assessing Possible Outcomes of U.S.-Iranian Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz,” International Security, 33(1), summer 2008: 82-11: http://www.caitlintalmadge.com/uploads/8/5/4/1/85419560/closing_time.pdf Caitlin Talmadge, "The Hormuz Minefield", Foreign Affairs, 13 March 2026: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-minefield Vali Nasr, "Iran is playing a long game", Financial Times, 13 March: https://www.ft.com/content/93b7b65d-074b-4e8b-807f-5c27c7362213 Matthew Continetti, "Iran Can't Hold the World Hostage", Wall Street Journal, 13 March: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-expression/iran-cant-hold-the-world-hostage-05f595a4 Greg Brew, "The global oil crisis is even worse than it looks" (interview), Vox, 11 March: https://www.vox.com/politics/482142/oil-gas-prices-iran-war-inflation B.A. Friedman, "Orphaned Tactics", Fire for Effect Substack, 9 March: https://bafriedman.substack.com/p/orphaned-tactics Danny Citrinowicz, thread on tactical success masking strategic failure, X/Twitter, 14 March: https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2032786358930972854 Ezra Klein, "I Asked a Former Trump Official to Justify This War" (interview with Nadia Schadlow), New York Times, 10 March: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-nadia-schadlow.html Foreign Policy Live debate: Matthew Kroenig vs Trita Parsi, Foreign Policy, 12 March: https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/12/kroenig-parsi-debate-war-in-iran/ Shelby Talcott, “Israel is running critically low on interceptors, US officials say”, Semafor, 15 March: https://www.semafor.com/article/03/14/2026/israel-is-running-critically-low-on-interceptors-us-officials-say Gideon Rachman, "Simon Gass on Iran" (interview), The Rachman Review podcast, 12 March: https://www.ft.com/content/cba7352f-aac0-4a6a-8919-c0597bc94c43 Rory Johnston and Nader Itayim, Oil Ground Up podcast, 13 March: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uPA9g5dWIYcvGH6vSSpEh Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal, "Oil markets" and "Fertiliser" episodes, Odd Lots podcast, 13–14 March: https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots China Talk podcast, "Second Breakfast: Iran", 14 March: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/iran-war-with-shashank Jake Sullivan and John Finer, interview with Danny Citrinowicz, The Long Game podcast, 12 March: https://staytuned.substack.com/p/america-doesnt-understand-iran-and Economist Intelligence podcast, " Lone goals: will US-Israel war aims diverge?", 13 March: https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2026/03/13/lone-goals-will-us-israel-war-aims-diverge

In (yet another) emergency episode, Darren offers eight initial thoughts on the US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei. Inside Iran, the question is whether airpower and decapitation can deliver regime change when the historical record says they never have — though this case may be an outlier given how weakened the regime already was. Regionally, Iran's “drizzle” retaliation strategy is targeting Gulf states and depleting expensive US interceptors, while the munitions being consumed come directly at the expense of what the US would need in a Taiwan contingency. Globally, no country or institution has any agency to shape what happens next — and China may be the quiet winner simply by being predictable while Washington lurches between crises. On international order, Darren explores how US deterrence is simultaneously stronger on willingness but weaker on material capacity, and why the Venezuela-Greenland-Iran sequence is normalising a new and dangerous operating model for the hegemon. On Australia, he thinks the government made the right call. He finishes by asking what we're learning about Trump's emerging “anti-Powell Doctrine”, what the erosion of rules means for world politics, and what constraints — if any — exist on this new kind of American power. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Charles Clover, Neri Zilber and Abigail Hauslohner, “Military briefing: Iran’s new retaliation strategy”, Financial Times, 1 March: https://archive.md/R24HQ#selection-1700.1-1889.0 Michael Gordon and Shelby Holliday, “U.S. Races to Accomplish Iran Mission Before Munitions Run Out”, Wall Street Journal, 1 March: https://archive.md/IHG7H#selection-547.0-547.62 Eliot Cohen, “Trump rolls the iron dice”, The Atlantic, 28 Feb: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/trump-rolls-iron-dice-iran/686199/ Kyle Chan, “China is winning by waiting: How Beijing turns predictability into power”, Foreign Affairs, 27 Feb: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-winning-waiting Tanner Greer, "On bombing Iran", Scholar's Stage, 1 Mar: https://scholars-stage.org/on-bombing-iran/

The US Supreme Court has struck down the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs. This is a big deal!  In this episode, Darren argues that the decision is not primarily a story about tariffs — important as they are — but about power. The Court has drawn a clear line around the President’s ability to declare an “emergency” and unilaterally impose across-the-board tariffs. While other tariff authorities remain in place, the removal of IEEPA as a rapid escalation tool represents a concrete institutional constraint on executive authority. What does that mean for Trump’s negotiating leverage? How does it change the international landscape — particularly ahead of a planned visit to Beijing? Why does this matter for Australia’s vision of regional order? Darren cannot avoid the bad news: heightened uncertainty, likely litigation, and the longer-term drift toward protectionism that this ruling will not reverse. But ultimately, this episode asks a bigger question: what actually constrains presidential power in the United States? And does this moment represent a small but meaningful crack in the aura of inevitability surrounding the current administration? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

A rapid debrief of Davos meetings and what they signal for global order and Arctic security. Analysis of the Greenland flap and whether it really paused a sovereignty crisis. A rundown of Mark Carney’s warning that the international order is rupturing and why that diagnosis matters for policy. Reflections on personalist, status-driven institutions, the limits of raw power, and what middle powers like Australia should consider as red lines.

Less than a year into Trump’s second term, his renewed push to acquire Greenland has escalated into a full-blown alliance crisis—complete with tariff threats against Denmark and other European backers, and a scramble for NATO unity. In (already) his second “emergency” episode of 2026 recorded solo on 18 January, Darren starts off by observing this episode doesn’t neatly fit neat orthodox models of international relations—it looks less like balancing or normal alliance bargaining and more like coercion and hierarchy politics, forcing Europe to weigh retaliation, endurance, and face-saving off-ramps. Given that, what kind of model(s) are useful? Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Stacie Goddard and Abraham Newman. 2025. “Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System.” International Organization 79(S1): S12–25. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818325101057 Joshua Keating, “Confused by the Trump administration? Think of it as a royal family.”, Vox, 6 Dec 2025: https://www.vox.com/politics/471070/trump-neoroyalism-monarchy

In an episode recorded just before Christmas, Darren interviews Janet Egan, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the Technology and National Security Program at CNAS, about AI policy and its implications for Australia. Janet (who started her career in the Australian government) frames the current AI landscape as a two-horse race between the US and China, given vastly asymmetric investment levels. She introduces “compute policy” as a tractable governance lever, explaining that the physical infrastructure required for AI—specialised chips, data centres, and energy—offers regulatable chokepoints unlike easily transferable data or algorithms. The US strategy focuses on scale and removing barriers to advancement, while China, constrained by export controls on advanced semiconductors, pursues a diffusion-oriented approach emphasising open-source models and practical applications. Turning to Australia's recently released National AI Plan, Janet offers a mixed assessment. She praises the establishment of an AI Safety Institute and the acknowledgment that data centres matter, while noting the plan avoided overly restrictive regulation that could stifle investment. However, she argues the plan misses a significant opportunity: positioning Australia as a compute hub for frontier AI training. Australia’s renewable energy potential, available land, and skilled trades workforce make it attractive for data centre buildout, but copyright restrictions on training data remain a key barrier. Janet argues that unlike critical minerals, AI does not lend itself to hedging between Washington and Beijing given its inherently dual-use nature and emerging evidence of bias in Chinese models. She highlights the UAE and UK as instructive cases—the former for ambitious state-led mobilisation, the latter for sophisticated thinking about AI sovereignty structured around supply resilience, value capture, and strategic influence. For Australia, she argues, meaningful participation in the AI supply chain would provide strategic leverage and a seat at the table where consequential decisions are being made. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Janet Egan (bio): https://www.cnas.org/people/janet-egan Janet Egan, Spencer Michaels and Caleb Withers, “Prepared, Not Paralyzed: Managing AI Risks to Drive American Leadership”, Center for New American Security, 20 Nov 2025: https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/prepared-not-paralyzed Janet Egan, “Global Compute and National Security: Strengthening American AI Leadership Through Proactive Partnerships”, Center for New American Security, 29 July 2025: https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/global-compute-and-national-security Lennart Heim, Markus Anderljung and Haydn Belfield, “To Govern AI, We Must Govern Compute”, Center for New American Security, 28 March 2024: https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/to-govern-ai-we-must-govern-compute Emanuele Rossi, “Undersecretary Helberg explains Pax Silica and the Indo-Pacific AI play” Decode 39, 17 December 2025: https://decode39.com/12841/undersecretary-helberg-explains-pax-silica-and-the-indo-pacific-ai-play/ Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, “Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025”, https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report Department of Industry, Science and Resources (Australia), National AI Plan, December 2025: https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/national-ai-plan Helen Toner, “Rising Tide” (substack): https://helentoner.substack.com/ Lady Gaga, How Bad Do U Want Me (Official Audio): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nd_M9A5xFlY

To begin 2026, the Trump administration has once again served up a news story of immense implications, with a military intervention and seizure of Venezuela's President Maduro. In this episode, Darren talks through his initial reactions to this developing story.  Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.