The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

The AI hype cycle shows no sign of slowing. But how much are the hundreds of billions in investment actually boosting economies, and when will that spending translate into meaningful productivity gains?In this episode, Senior Economic Adviser Vicky Redwood discusses her new report, 'How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy?', the latest addition to Capital Economics’ analysis of AI’s global impact. In conversation with David Wilder, she separates hype from reality, covering: Which economies are benefiting most from the global AI build-out  Why recent US productivity gains are evidence of AI’s impact  If the conflict in the Middle East could disrupt the AI rollout  Whether fears of an AI-driven jobs apocalypse are justified  What the Citrini note gets wrong about AI’s macro impactRead 'How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy?': https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-deeply-ai-taking-hold-economy

Our updated macro and market forecasts assess the impact on growth and inflation – and the likely central bank response – under both baseline and adverse scenarios for the Middle East conflict. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the more benign scenario would deliver a negative but manageable shock to the global economy, while a more adverse outcome could tip it into outright recession.Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory explains why gilts have been the hardest hit among G10 government bonds as tensions have escalated. She explores the sharp shift in expectations for Bank of England policy and the underlying fiscal vulnerabilities fuelling market anxiety – including the risk of a change in government leadership.Read our latest Global Economic Outlook: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/forecasting-through-fog-war-1

Pity the poor central banker. As energy prices surge, they are grappling with the trade-off between growth and inflation, while trying to communicate this all to markets without triggering an unwanted tightening in financial conditions.At the end of an unusually busy week for policy meetings, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown assess how central banks are managing this difficult task, and whether investors are right to position for rate hikes from some banks that only a few weeks ago were expected to ease policy this year.In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, they talk to David Wilder about issues including:How inflation risks in the global economy are crystallising as the conflict approaches its fourth weekWhat separates central banks, from the Bank of England and ECB to the BOJ, RBA and the Fed, in how they are likely to respondWhether interest rate cuts would come back onto the table if the fighting were to endJoin our 26th March online briefings about our new macro and market forecasts: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-global-economic-and-market-outlook-pricing-energy-shock

News of a record release of emergency oil reserves has quickly been overshadowed by images of tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Thirteen days into the conflict, tensions in the Middle East appear to be escalating rather than easing. What is the view from commodity and financial markets, and what could this mean for the global economy?Capital Economics has modelled three scenarios to assess how oil and gas supplies and prices could evolve as the conflict unfolds, and what this might mean for global growth, inflation, central bank policy and financial markets.In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing:Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley discusses how our scenarios map out potential paths for oil and gas supply and prices, depending on the duration of the conflict and the extent of damage to production and infrastructure.Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains how these scenarios could translate into different growth and inflation outcomes globally, and what they might mean for central bank policy — including what to expect from the upcoming meetings of the Fed, Bank of England, ECB and Bank of Japan.Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann explores how financial markets could respond, how far prices might rebound in the event of a ceasefire, and which trades may never fully recover.Explore all our coverage of the conflict, including our scenarios here: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflictInterested in trial access? Email us at podcast@capitaleconomics.com

Conflict in the Middle East, a surge in oil and gas prices, and a surprise drop in US payrolls – it’s been a turbulent week for the global economy.In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss what the spreading Middle East conflict and sharp spike in energy prices mean for global growth and inflation, and why the latest US jobs report may not signal a major slowdown.Later, Senior Climate and Commodities Economist Kieran Tompkins explains the scale of disruption in global oil and gas markets, whether alternative supply can offset the shock and what the longer-term implications could be for energy markets.Read all our key insight into the Middle East conflict here:https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflictGet in touch for a trial to our platform:podcast@capitaleconomics.com

Amid widening conflict in the Middle East, our economist team held an online briefing first thing Monday to tackle some of the key questions that clients have been asking. In this edited clip from that briefing, you’ll hear the team tackle issues, including:The extent of disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for oil and gas prices;The point at which rising oil prices would force central banks to slow or abandon policy easing;The dollar as a safe haven currency in this time of geopolitical upheaval;How this conflict could shape the economic outlook for the GCC economies;The likelihood that a change of leadership in Tehran could open the way for a deal with the US.With: Jennifer McKeown (Chief Global Economist), William Jackson (Chief EM Economist), David Oxley (Chief Climate & Commodities Economist), Jonas Goltermann (Deputy Chief Markets Economist). Note: This client briefing was held at 1000 GMT/1800 SGT on Monday, 2nd MarchSee our dedicated Iran conflict page below for more key analysis, and contact us at podcast@capitaleconomics.com to find out about access. https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflict

Is China’s latest Five-Year Plan about to reset its economic model and tackle the imbalances weighing on both the domestic and global economy?Speculation always builds ahead of a new Five-Year Plan. But this time, the stakes feel higher. With growth slowing, debt risks lingering and external tensions elevated, could this Plan mark a genuine turning point?That is what Julian Evans-Pritchard will be watching for as the National People’s Congress opens in Beijing on Thursday. On The Weekly Briefing, he joins Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing to talk to David Wilder about the outlook for China’s domestic and external imbalances and to address the key questions, not least how this adjustment will proceed, how willing its trading partners will remain to absorb China's goods surplus and whether this all risks tipping the world into crisis?Elsewhere in the episode, Megan Fisher from our Commodities team revisits the cocoa price boom she had long warned was unsustainable. Now that prices have collapsed, she sifts through the fallout to explain what comes next and whether chocoholics are likely to see any relief.Events and analysis referenced in this episodeChina NPC Drop-In https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-key-takeaways-npc-and-new-five-year-planUK Spring Statement Drop-Inhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/uk-drop-chancellors-spring-statement-fiscal-signals-political-risks-market-implicationsUS non-farm payrolls previewhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-employment-report-preview/health-care-likely-be-key-driver-payrolls-again

The Supreme Court has finally ruled on Donald Trump's tariffs with an opinion that the president has no right to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. So what happens now?Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss the implications of this legal ruling for the US economy, for Federal Reserve policy and for financial markets. In their conversation with David Wilder, Stephen and Jonas address key issues, including:How the White House could rebuild its tariff regime – and rebuild it quicklyWhat happens when billions of dollars in tariff refunds flow back into US company accounts Why signs of resurgent inflationary pressures are narrowing the room for Fed rate cutsHow the bond market is responding to the Supreme Court newsWhy the stock market rally has stalled, and whether this news could get it going again.Related readingIEEPA ruling unlikely to pull PCE inflation back to 2%https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-economics-weekly/ieepa-ruling-unlikely-pull-pce-inflation-back-2Stock market rotation is a warning of trouble aheadhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/stock-market-rotation-warning-trouble-aheadSC rules that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegalhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-rapid-response/sc-rules-trumps-ieepa-tariffs-are-illegal

From the lows of December retail sales to the highs of January payrolls, recent US data has sent mixed signals. But the economy remains in relatively good shape, argues Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown on the latest episode of the Capital Economics Weekly Briefing. He explores why the idea of a “K-shaped” economy may be overstated, what markets are missing about the productivity growth upturn, and the chances of much lower rates from a Kevin Warsh-led Fed. Also on the show, as Keir Starmer’s government reels from one of its toughest weeks yet, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory assesses what a change of leadership could mean for the UK economy and financial markets, but also why the long-term growth outlook may not be as bleak as recent headlines suggest.Related reading:AI already making a big contribution to US productivity growthWhy we still believe in the AI rally, and the S&P 500Would a stock market crash cause a global recession?Can China’s trade surplus rise further?Get in touch at podcast@capitaleconomics.com to learn more. 

In this week’s episode, Neil Shearing talks to Vicky Redwood and John Higgins about a tumultuous week in equity markets, how AI is creating winners and losers, and whether there’s any evidence that AI is starting to lift productivity growth in economies. AI already making a big contribution to productivity growthChina’s AI rollout could rival the US