Wealth Formula by Buck Joffrey

When in Rome, do as the Romans do. If we follow that advice, what do we do in an economic environment like today? Austrian economists would tell us to stop printing money and to keep the Fed out of the bond market. If we did that, we would go into a depression. No one denies that—not even the Austrians. The disagreement is on whether or not it’s the right thing to do for the long term. The bad news for the Austrians is that they are grossly outnumbered and we do not live in a gold-backed world. We live in a Keynesian wet dream with essentially limitless money printing and government spending. For now, it’s keeping the economy alive. We did the same type of stuff in 2008 and it saved us then as well. Oh…by the way, we didn’t get the inflation that was predicted by the Austrians either. Instead, we shipped it off to the rest of the world without trade deficit. We could very well do the same this time around. It’s a bizarre economy that’s for sure. But don’t fight it. Just try to understand it and do as the Romans do. There may be a day of reckoning from this game we are playing but we need to ride this wave as long as we can. It’s the only thing we can do. But again, the first step is trying to understand what is going on. Understanding macroeconomics gives you a chance in a crazy financial climate. That’s what we are going to try to do again on this week’s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast as I once again interview economist Richard Duncan. Richard Duncan is the author of three books on the global economic crisis. The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (John Wiley & Sons, 2003, updated 2005), predicted the global economic disaster that began in 2008 with extraordinary accuracy. It was an international bestseller. His second book was The Corruption of Capitalism: A strategy to rebalance the global economy and restore sustainable growth. It was published by CLSA Books in December 2009. His latest book is The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (John Wiley & Sons, 2012). Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis. Richard has appeared frequently on CNBC, CNN, BBC and Bloomberg Television, as well as on BBC World Service Radio. He has published articles in The Financial Times, The Far East Economic Review, FinanceAsia and CFO Asia. He is also a well-known speaker whose audiences have included The World Economic Forum’s East Asia Economic Summit in Singapore, The EuroFinance Conference in Copenhagen, The Chief Financial Officers’ Roundtable in Shanghai, and The World Knowledge Forum in Seoul. Richard studied literature and economics at Vanderbilt University (1983) and international finance at Babson College (1986); and, between the two, spent a year traveling around the world as a backpacker. Shownotes: How much money has the Federal Reserve printed since the Covid-19 Pandemic started? Why printing more money does not automatically cause inflation Does Globalization allow us to essentially export our inflation? Can we just keep printing more money forever? RichardDuncanEconomics.com

Robert Kiyosaki’s Real Estate Advisor, Ken McElroy, was kind enough to give his perspective on the current state of apartment investing on last week’s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast. Ken’s perspective on the state of the apartment market was pretty bleak. While there is no doubt I respect Ken’s views, I also think it is important to get the perspective of others to begin formulating your own opinions. Remember smart people can, and often are, wrong. The extreme example is someone like Peter Schiff. I think Peter Schiff is a very smart guy but he’s also wrong a lot. He’s doing an end zone dance right now about the economy going south, but he’s been predicting that for years. Even a broken clock is accurate twice every day. Ken is definitely not a zombie apocalypse guy, but he also stopped buying real estate 3-4 years ago and has been on the sidelines since. During those years, there was money to be made and others as smart as Ken did exactly that. Don’t get me wrong, I respect the hell out of the guy. I just think it’s important to not take any one person’s predictions as fact. That’s not fair to him either. Instead, let us do what any intelligent person should do. Let’s gather facts. Let’s talk and listen to people on the ground who are monitoring what’s going on in real time. It’s hard to do that when you are not in the business every day. The most successful operators are following everything in real time and, so far, what’s really happening may surprise you. One of those guys you should be listening to is one of my real estate partners, Dante Andrade. Dante is based in Dallas and is one of the most granular researchers of real estate that I have ever met. So, if you are one of the many apartment investors out there trying to get informed of what’s really going on, you will NOT want to miss this episode of Wealth Formula Podcast. Dante is a man of many multifamily real estate hats. He is a buyer’s broker in Dallas, meaning that he is dedicated to the buyer side of acquisition of large multifamily real estate. He’s been involved in just under a billion dollars worth of transactions, focusing again specifically in the Dallas/Fort Worth market. He’s also a real estate coach and mentor and finally, and probably most importantly, he is my partner in our group called Touro Asset Management Group as we acquire a cash flowing multifamily real estate in Dallas. Shownotes: What today has been the net result of this entire COVID-19 assault on multifamily? What’s going on with Texas? Dante talks about why there aren’t more discounted properties in the market right now Why are people still paying rent despite the pandemic? Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than smart

I have been on the record for a while now anticipating the “tsunami following the earthquake.” In other words, COVID-19 was a destructive economic force but the aftermath may be even worse. The theory is based on historical observations of how these things tend to play out. The problem and potential flaw in the rationale, however, is that there really isn’t a situation that is truly parallel to what we face now. When has the entire world shut down for business for months at a time before? Never. But when has a country with the economic might of the United States flooded the system with so much money and so many ways to keep businesses alive? When has a country paid some people more to be unemployed than to work? I can’t think of any time like this. Can you? The point is that beyond my predictions and those of the other armchair economists whom you may follow lies a harsh reality—none of us really know what’s going to happen. Sure that tsunami I keep talking about seems likely but it may not happen because fiscal and monetary policy do their job and an earlier-than-expected vaccine saves the day. Alternatively, the tsunami could hurt selective parts of the economy and leave others relatively unscathed. So far, in multifamily real estate, our investor club is seeing asset performance matching if not exceeding pre-COVID levels across our portfolio! Our portfolio is a very specific niche, however. We focus on working-class apartment buildings in rapidly growing red state cities such as Dallas and Phoenix with relatively low cost of living index. The details matter. Being in Texas instead of California means we don’t have to worry about “rent strikes” and courts saying how much we can charge for rent. Population growth gives a natural benefit of increased housing demand. Being in working-class housing right now means two things. First, we have a lot more people moving down from  A to B and high C class housing then we have C class tenants moving down to the depths of D class hell. Our working-class tenants do appear to be working and those who are not are receiving unemployment benefits that are exceeding their typical salaries. These unemployment benefits are more than enough in low cost of living areas to buy food and pay the rent.  Conversely, people living in the A class apartments are losing jobs and unemployment doesn’t provide them with the ability to maintain the same lifestyle. Anyway, that’s what we are seeing right now. I should add that the demand of this housing has been such that we are continuing to raise rents. Crazy, isn’t it? Anyway, the point I’m trying to make here is that when you listen to anyone right now about what’s going to happen with the economy and with real estate, you have to listen to them in a nuanced context. You also need to remember that we have no idea what further fiscal and monetary policies will be unleashed in the next few months to further mitigate the damage to businesses. Listen to everyone who is worth listening to but make sure you identify the context and do a little thinking for yourself. Now, one of the guys that we should all listen to in the area of apartment buildings is Ken McElroy. Ken is probably best known as Robert Kiyosaki’s Rich Dad advisor on real estate. However, I listen to Ken because he is a multifamily real estate syndicator who has had a lot of success for a long time. Ken’s niche is a little different than mine. He’s an A class and new construction guy but what he has to say in the context of what’s going on right now is important for all of us to digest. So make sure to listen to this week’s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast as Ken McElroy and I dive into the Post-Covid Real Estate Reality. Ken McElroy is the epitome of the word entrepreneur. For over two decades, Ken McElroy has experienced massive success in the real estate world-from investment analysis and property management to acquisitions and property development. With over $750 million investment dollars in real estate, Ken offers a unique perspective on how to get the biggest return on investments. Ken is the author of the best-selling books The ABC’s of Real Estate Investing, The Advanced Guide to Real Estate Investing, The ABC’s of Property Management, and most recently his book on entrepreneurship: The Sleeping Giant, where he shares his real-life examples and ideology of how to be successful in business and in life. As the Real Estate Advisor to Robert Kiyosaki of The Rich Dad Company, Ken is also a chapter contributor in the newly released Rich Dad book, More Important Than Money: an Entrepreneur’s Team. A champion and advocate for entrepreneurs and real estate investors, Ken has spoken worldwide at top industry events. With media appearances on television and radio, Ken also host Entrepreneur Magazine’s Real Estate Radio program, where he helps listeners navigate the financial and legal arenas of real estate. Never taking life for granted, Ken is active in the community. He has served on advisory boards for Child Help and AZ Food Banks where he conducted the largest food drive in the state of Arizona. Ken was the Walk Chair for Autism Speaks Arizona for both 2015 and 2016. He currently serves on the Board of Directors for the Southwest Autism Research and Resource Center (SARRC). Ken and his family reside in Scottsdale, Arizona. In the MC Family he is a strong advocate for The Sharing the Good Life Foundation allowing all MC employees the opportunity to join him in the pursuit of giving back to the community. Shownotes: How has the pandemic affected Ken’s business? Real estate fills a need for the people, not the other way around When will we know when it is time to buy? Ken’s latest book, “Return to Orchard Canyon” kenmcelroy.com mccompanies.com

In our latest Wealth Formula Network video conference, a question was asked that I think pretty much all of us have at this point. If the economy is in the tank, why does the stock market seem to be tone-deaf to what’s going on? It’s the elephant in the room, right? Well, I don’t claim to know the answer to that but let me give you my two cents. First, fiscal and monetary policies are in full force. The Federal Reserve has the printing press on full time and we have added a trillion dollars to the debt in just the last couple of months. The Federal Reserve has shown willingness to buy high yield corporate bond ETFs (aka junk bonds)—literally picking winners and losers. If they are willing to do that, what’s keeping them from buying S&P 500 ETFs? The law? Well, at this point that seems like a formality. If the ship starts sinking again, it seems not unlikely for this to occur. So, if you are managing client money, what are you going to do? If you missed out on the 40 percent recovery since March, you are probably going to get yourself fired. Instead, it might make more sense just to follow the money—the Federal Reserve in this case. To me, that’s why stocks are doing as well as they are. To say the least, the economy has significant challenges ahead. No one doubts that. However, remember that a crisis often brings about opportunities. These are the times when wealth is transferred significantly and you want to try to be on the receiving end of that. As part of its arsenal, the government has provided substantial support to small businesses and by changing the tax code. It is imperative that you know the changes that are going on. Even if you are not a business owner, understanding what’s happening on the ground will help you better understand the realities of the economy and prepare accordingly. For that reason, I have asked my friend and CPA, Tom Wheelwright to join us again on this week’s podcast to explain the most recent updates to the tax code and what he is seeing with his clients in real-time. Tom Wheelwright, CPA is the visionary and best-selling author behind multiple companies that specializing in wealth and tax strategy. Tom is also a leading expert and published author on partnerships and corporation tax strategies, a well-known platform speaker and a wealth education innovator. In Tom’s best selling book Tax-Free Wealth, Tom shows entrepreneurs and investors how to build massive amounts of wealth through practical and strategic ways to permanently reduce taxes. Shownotes: What is the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)? What is the EIDL Loan Be careful. Anytime you sign a loan, make sure you read the loan provisions. What is the Main Street Loan? wealthability.com

Robert Kiyosaki is the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, the best selling financial book of all time. He went on to publish several books including Cashflow Quadrant which fundamentally changed my life. To say that Robert Kiyosaki has made an impact in the world is an understatement. He has helped to create a generation of entrepreneurs inspired by his writings. Many, including myself, discovered the very concept of entrepreneurship for the first time through his teachings. Pretty impressive right? Imagine making such an impact on the world. It sure sounds like a life worth living to me. And you know what makes it all the more inspirational? He was 50 years old when he published Rich Dad Poor Dad! Of course Robert was successful before Rich Dad Poor Dad. But he would be the first one to agree that the trajectory of his life really peaked after 50. This pandemic has taken its toll on many of us. While thousands have died, the emotional casualties will never be truly appreciated and is reflected, in part, by the social unrest we are seeing across this country. In that context, I am looking for something to be hopeful about today. To me, Robert Kiyosaki’s books were paradigm changing when I first read them. But now, as a 46 year old guy feeling a little blue, it’s his success later in life that has me feeling inspired. The truth be told, I don’t agree with everything Robert says these days, but he is someone that has earned the right to be heard. As a guy who does not routinely engage in hero worship, he has also earned my eternal gratitude. As such, it is my pleasure to present you with this week’s Wealth Formula Podcast featuring an interview with Robert Kiyosaki regarding the post-pandemic economy. Robert T. Kiyosaki Best known as the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad—the #1 personal finance book of all time—Robert Kiyosaki has challenged and changed the way tens of millions of people around the world think about money. He is an entrepreneur, educator, and investor who believes the world needs more entrepreneurs who will create jobs. With perspectives on money and investing that often contradict conventional wisdom, Robert has earned an international reputation for straight talk, irreverence, and courage and has become a passionate and outspoken advocate for financial education. Robert and Kim Kiyosaki are founders of The Rich Dad Company, a financial education company, and creators of the CASHFLOW® games. In 2014, the company leveraged the global success of the Rich Dad games with the launch of new and breakthrough offerings in mobile and online gaming as well as Rich Dad’s CLUTCH, a digital learning platform. Robert has been heralded as a visionary who has a gift for simplifying complex concepts—ideas related to money, investing, finance, and economics—and has shared his personal journey to financial freedom in ways that resonate with audiences of all ages and backgrounds. His core principles and messages—like “Your house is not an asset“ and “Invest for cash flow” and “savers are losers”—have ignited a firestorm of criticism and ridicule… only to have played out on the world economic stage over the past decade in ways that were both unsettling and prophetic. Shownotes: The new normal Robert talks about the Shadow Banking System and the biggest stock market crash in history The dominoes are now only starting to fall and we have yet to see the full impact of Covid-19 on the global economy What does Robert think will happen in Post-Covid America? Robert talks about his book Who Stole My Pension

There were a few questions left in the “Ask Buck” file that have finally been answered! You can listen to the latest episode HERE. The good news is that this format seems to be quite popular. I really do enjoy these virtual interactions and encourage you to keep those questions coming! Enjoy. 

As I mentioned last week, we had a lot of questions piled up in the “Ask Buck” file that I need to get answered. As a result, we ended up with multiple shows. You can listen to the latest episode HERE. The good news is that this format seems to be quite popular. I really do enjoy these virtual interactions and encourage you to keep those questions coming! Now, in the interest in maximizing your weekly experience, in addition to the “Ask Buck” episode, you will find a bonus episode which features the webinar recently done for us by Tom Wheelwright on the latest tax legislation that you need to know about.  You will get more out of Tom’s talk with the video presentation which you can access at the following link: https://www.wealthformula.com/critical-changes-webinar/ Let me know what you think!

Ever since this COVID-19 thing started, it seems like there is no other news. Maybe what that tells us is that most of the news we ordinarily get on a daily basis is worthless.  But seriously, doesn’t it seem like the world has just frozen into a COVID-19 coma? My ER doc friends joke that everyone stopped having heart attacks and strokes since this pandemic started. As a podcaster, I realize that it is very difficult to not talk about the viral elephant in the room, but it gets old doesn’t it?  Anyway, the virus hit us just as we were doing our 200th episode. At that time, we were going to do a couple of special “Ask Buck” shows but we only got a few of the questions answered. These shows tend to be well received so, if you are one of those people who enjoys hearing my opinion, you are going to love the next few weeks as I get through all of these questions—some of them are pretty old! So, if you want to hear my opinion on investing, taxes and, of course, the pandemic, make sure you listen to the first in a series of “Ask Buck” episodes HERE!

“It’s hard to make predictions—especially about the future.” That’s one of my favorite Yogi Berra quotes. It’s funny but also incredibly true. Think about what is happening now with COVID-19. Social scientists make predictions based on assumptions. The epidemiologists are making projections on the spread of the virus even though they have no significant knowledge of what they don’t know. We are learning something new about this virus everyday. To further complicate things, the virus can mutate. There are already two strains and there could be more in the future makings its virulence and contagion even more unpredictable. In the meantime, economists are basing their predictions on the work of the public health professionals. Their models are predicated on the moving targets of the public health projections. They are also basing models on an assumption that there will be a vaccination or cure in some specified period of time. What a mess right? In fact, no one really knows what’s going to happen next month or tomorrow for that matter. We are in slow motion as the economic fall-out declares itself. Monetary and fiscal policy measures will be unparalleled in size and scope but no one really knows what the real impact of those measures will be. If I am sounding a bit nihilistic, it may be because our Wealth Formula Network mastermind is currently reading Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan as part of our book club. A lot of people refer to this book when they talk about unpredictable events—even if they didn’t read the book! I do highly recommend it myself although be forewarned, it is not a light read. Taleb actually doesn’t think that COVID-19 as a black swan event. Why? He, along with many others, had predicted this kind of pandemic in recent years based on recent viral outbreaks and the rise of globalization. There are documentaries about the likelihood of a Disease X epidemic and there was even a White House Pandemic Task Force that was dismantled by the current administration. But what Taleb does see as a potential black swan event is what happens as a result of this grayswan. The unpredictability of this economy is ripe for a true event that none of us can predict. So what’s the point of making predictions? Well, most of life does stay on the bell curve. In other words, economics can provide value in the bigger picture when known factors are modeled in. As long as you can stay away from highly unlikely events, they can serve people and businesses well. ITR Economics is a firm that I follow. They’ve been right on 97 percent of their economic forecasts over the last 70 years or so. That said, for the reasons discussed earlier, they didn’t see the severity of COVID-19 impact coming either—again because their assumptions were based on then-available public health assumptions. At any rate, the key to get the most out of economics is to be agile and redirect projections as assumptions change over time.  For that reason, this week’s episode of Wealth Formula Podcast revisits the question of the economy with Catherine  Putney of ITR economics. As you may recall, she was on the show shortly before all of our lives suddenly changed and businesses closed a couple months ago. Make sure to tune in as Catherine gives us an updated forecast for the coming year and beyond! Catherine Putney specializes in applied research for business cycle trend analysis, growth-cycle trend analysis, and implementing cyclical analysis at the practical, company level. She holds a master’s degree in economics from the University of New Hampshire. Catherine regularly contributes articles to ITR Economics’ flagship publication, the ITR Trends Report™, focusing on the manufacturing sector of the US economy. Catherine and the ITR team have put this expertise to work for companies across a wide range of industries, including manufacturing, chemicals, fibers, healthcare, distribution, real estate, construction, and technology.