The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With a much quieter data week Nick and Kelvin find conversation in a range of topics, including the third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property report, Kelvin's anecdotes from a week on the road with the Trade Me Property team and the National Party's Build to Rent announcement.Hot off the press is the CoreLogic Mapping the Market report though, the interactive suburb map detailing the median value and change for almost 1,000 suburbs across the country.And keep a look out for the monthly video to be published later this week on the CoreLogic Youtube channel.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In a special edition podcast Nick and Kelvin are joined by Eliza Owen, Head of Research for CoreLogic Australia. Eliza is the author of the just-released third edition of the CoreLogic Women & Property Report.Eliza takes Nick through the report - why does it exist, how is it done, and what does it tell us? Kelvin helps along the way with some NZ specific insight but the findings are relatively consistent across both countries and Eliza delves into some of the details and also some thinking as to why they may occur.Download your free version here from Tuesday 7 March 2023 and keep an eye out for plenty of coverage across all media channels.You can follow Eliza on LinkedIn.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for February out last week, a question came up about why it differs to some other measures out there. This leads to a broader discussion some of the different stats out there and why the interpretation of them is important. This relates to other releases from the last week too, including the filled jobs data, business and consumer confidence results and even the affordability report released the week prior.Even the dwelling consents figures offer up a few words of warning, following some fresh listener insights. This week keep an eye out for the Women & Property report, and associated podcast, out Tuesday. Plus, Kelvin's on the road with Trade Me for their State of the Nation roadshow and be sure to dial into the International Women's Day webinar and the Government Market Update if you're a Government employee.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!This week it is all about the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), and included OCR decision from last week. Perhaps the most important viewpoint was their take on what their role will or should be in response to supporting the recovery from the devastating impact of Cyclone Gabrielle as well as the severe flooding in Auckland a few weeks prior.But as Nick and Kelvin discuss, the RBNZ quickly outlaid that both the timing and broader role of monetary policy dictated they 'look through' the impacts of the event for now, leaving that to fiscal and private support in the first instance. Outside of the MPS, the latest CoreLogic Housing Affordability Report provides an excellent marker for future house price growth (or lack-of), while Kelvin remains very attentive to the latest NZ Activity Index (NZAC) for economic performance and the latest lending stats provide yet more evidence (not that it's needed) of how slow the market really is.Plenty to come this week too, including the CoreLogic House Price Index results for February, going public on Wednesday.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Firstly, our thoughts are with all those affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and the damage it has caused. It is heart-breaking to see and hear about all the people affected by this event, the extent of which is still to be known.There is so much to ponder this week, as the destruction caused by Cyclone Gabrielle poses yet another consideration for Te Pūtea Matua (The Reserve Bank of NZ) as they weigh up all the factors in deciding on the next move for the OCR. This week they'll release their full Monetary Policy Statement, which has Nick and Kelvin debating all the options, including holding the OCR at 4.25%.It was also a very heavy data release week with historically low sales volumes recorded by REINZ, falls in values continuing into 2023, rents experiencing a (potentially deceiving) bounce, net migration growing further and borrowers still constrained at a debt-to-income (DTI) level.The Pain & Gain report is now live, and keep a look out for the Housing Affordability Report, due for release by Wednesday.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!**Please note the original upload of this week's podcast was an older file. This has been updated but you may need to delete the original download and re-download this episode to get the proper version** With a little less data released last week, the focus for the podcast this week centres around the investor market. There's January's Buyer Classification data to first run through, showing first home buyers holding relatively strong, with Kelvin then delving a bit deeper to reveal we may be waiting a while for any investor comeback.With a lot of focus on the arrival of Cyclone Gabrielle, there's further discussion on the broader impacts to the property market as well as reference to some of CoreLogic's Climate Risk Solutions, available to support clients and property owners. Be sure to get in touch if you'd like to know more.Lastly, a look ahead paves the way for a busy week, with rental data, REINZ' HPI, RBNZ lending figures and migration stats all being released this week. Plus, check back for the official release of the 2022 Q4 Pain & Gain report.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Coming from a data-heavy week, including the all-important labour market statistics, most of the conversation this week leads to the likelihood of the RBNZ plumping for a 50 basis point lift to the OCR in two weeks' time (rather than the previously expected 75 basis point lift).As well as the increase in the unemployment rate, the CoreLogic HPI illustrated there's further to go in the property downturn, while consumer confidence remains very low (despite a jump in the past month).There's also the impacts of the Auckland floods to weigh up, though as is discussed it's not exactly straight forward as there will likely be added inflationary pressure, but it's also important to make funds available to those who need it (without too high an interest rate).Dwelling consent data was also released and for the first time in a long time the annual figure dropped below 50,000, though it's no reason to panic with the pipeline full. Once again, considerations will need to be made for the remedial work required in Auckland, which may see new consents nationwide drop at a faster pace than otherwise expected.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With Nick away on holiday in and around Queenstown this week, Kelvin takes the reins and is joined by a special guest, Tom Coad, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Platforms for NZ and Australia.We kick off the episode with a brief intro for Tom, and then Kelvin kicks into the data, which is in abundance this week – inflation may have peaked (but is still high), which will trigger another OCR increase on 22nd February. Whether it’s 0.75% or ‘only’ 0.5% will depend a lot on what happens with the official labour market figures this Wednesday.There have been some other concerning indicators lately too – a subdued NZAC for December, weak business confidence, and signs in the latest Centrix data that more households are beginning to struggle with the cost of living and higher mortgage rates.Looking ahead, it’s CoreLogic House Price Index data this week, alongside mortgage lending, foreign buyers, unemployment, dwelling consents, and consumer confidence.After all that, the discussion turns to bigger picture banking themes, where Tom highlights a couple of key issues – digitisation/lending speed and the role of brokers, both in NZ and across the ditch. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!What else could start off this week’s discussion than the change of Prime Minister? Ultimately though, from a property perspective, the guys reckon that it’s ‘business as usual’ for now – what really matters is what will happen to property policy after the Election.In fact, the biggest item this week is actually Wednesday’s CPI for Q4. If inflation rose above 7.5% (the Reserve Bank’s expectation), we could see some reaction in higher mortgage rates. But a sub-7% result could tip the tone of discussion towards an OCR increase on 22nd February of less than 0.75%, taking some heat out of mortgage rates. A big day beckons.Meanwhile, the REINZ data released last week remained very sluggish, with sales low and the house price index falling again. Queenstown’s 5.2% fall in values in December probably isn’t a genuine indication of broader trends in that market, but it also reinforces that nowhere is totally immune to the current housing pressures.Rents held steady in December, confirming that tenants are currently in the ascendency, but the sharp and surprisingly strong turnaround lately in net migration may be starting to give some landlords hope for better property demand and cashflow in 2023.Nick and Kelvin also cover off this week’s NZAC (weak again?), ANZ business confidence (also subdued?), as well as the so-called Healthy Homes alliance, and some recent negative equity stats for Wellington.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Apologies for the short audio cut-out at about 16 minutes. Please plough through it.After a busy start to 2023 last week in terms of writing and media appearances, we’re back for the second podcast of the year, and there’s plenty to cover – most notably the guys cover off Kelvin’s ‘opinion piece’ setting out why the loan to value ratio rules won’t be loosened this year. This wasn’t triggered by any ‘whispers’ that we’ve heard; just a good opportunity to put all our random musings into one place.The latest Cordell Construction Cost Index is also discussed, showing that the costs to build a new house rose at a record pace in 2022, but also that some respite could be on the way this year.Good news for first home buyers too – their % share of property purchases is hovering at record highs, with reduced competition from other buyers, and of course lower house prices, all working in their favour. To be fair, the number of deals has fallen. But a high market share is still a good result.The labour market also remains healthy, with filled jobs rising again in November. And this week we’re watching out for December’s REINZ figures (Wednesday), December’s Stats NZ rent data (Thursday), and November’s migration result (Friday).Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.