The Dismal Science

Stephen and Ivan talk inequality.

Stephen and Ivan discuss the recent spike in the Australian dollar, what it means for the RBA's growth forecasts and whether you should be buying foreign currency for that overseas holiday now.

Stephen and Ivan do a close reading of RBA governor Philip Lowe's latest speech on the labour market.

Stephen and Ivan take look at why the minutes from the RBA board's July meeting moved markets, as well as the June jobs numbers.

For this comeback episode, we catch up on the latest economic data, Ivan asks for a pay rise and we dive into the census.

In this bonus episode of The Dismal Science, Ivan interviews Jeff Gramm, hedge fund manager and author of Dear Chairman: Boardroom Battles and the Rise of Shareholder Activism. The book, which was on the AICD's summer reading list, traces the history of shareholder activism through eight famous shareholder letters and touches on many themes relevant to directors, including the relationship between board and management, director independence, the role of proxy advisers and the perils of groupthink.

It's our bumper Budget episode: axes are out, taxes are in. RIP 2014.

It's Stephen's birthday and it's the budget! What a time to be the AICD Chief Economist. Discussed in this episode: [1:01] May RBA decision [1:14] Copy-and-paste March decision [1:40] April RBA decision [1:45] April RBA minutes [2:53] AICD Director Sentiment Index [3:35] 2H16 Director Sentiment Index [5:31] NAB March Business Survey [6:03] Consumer confidence still subdued [6:32] Treasurer's good/bad debt speech [6:37] Badgerys Creek airport [6:41] Inland rail [6:52] Company tax cut [6:59] Stephen on tax reform [7:52] South Australia renewables debate [8:35] Budget countdown [8:58] Treasurer's flags housing package [9:29] Negative gearing changes ruled out [9:52] Retiree incentives to downsize [10:06] Salary sacrificing a deposit [10:21] Barbecue stoppers [10:53] AICD's negative gearing position [11:43] Health and education good debt? [12:17] $50bn infra package [12:20] 2014 $50bn promise [12:48] Stephen on infrastructure debt [13:18] Snowy hydro plan [13:38] Sydney second airport history [14:15] 2014 proposed university cuts [14:26] Abbott's Gonski unity ticket [14:33] Gonski double backflip [14:36] Turnbull questions Gonski [14:45] Gonski Company Director profile [14:57] Gonski 2.0 [15:47] Higher education cuts [16:07] Gonski 1.0 [16:23] Gonski and the forward estimates [16:28] More or less funding for schools? [16:51] 2.0 changes to status quo [17:10] Greens support [17:17] Private school cuts [17:38] Gonski 2.0 Labor strategy [18:29] 'Overfunded' cuts consensus [19:10] i give a gonski campaign [19:34] Gonski and Turnbull schoolmates [21:14] Labor's Mediscare campaign [21:31] PBS generics push [22:21] Medicare rebate freeze to be lifted? [22:48] Fairfax strike [23:33] Government bonds on issue [24:02] OECD government debt-to-gdb [24:45] Net operating vs net cash balance [25:07] Register for Stephen's budget webinar Tweet at us @aicdirectors or message us on Facebook with feedback on the show or suggestions for upcoming topics.

This week Stephen and Ivan take credit for the Treasurer getting religion on debt and discuss inflation coming back within the Reserve Bank's target range. Discussed in this episode: [0:42] Treasurer's good/bad debt speech [1:00] Stephen on infrastructure debt [2:16] Morrison's 2016 position [3:43] Net operating vs net cash balance [3:55] Jim Chalmers' Better Budgeting [5:23] Operational vs capital budgets [6:13] Stephen on 1Q17 CPI data [6:24] RBA's inflation target [9:12] RBA early adopter of inflation targeting [9:20] NZ pioneers inflation targeting [9:37] Gold standard [9:39] Monetary policy regimes [9:44] Milton Friedman's k-percent rule [10:58] Nod to the monetarists [15:40] Expansions don't die of old age [15:55] Wage-price spiral [16:20] Japanese deflation [16:47] Deflation and the Depression [17:13] Disinflation [17:34] Quantitative easing [17:55] Calculating CPI [18:42] Include housing in CPI? [21:29] Unexpected brief 2016 deflation [21:35] RBA cut following deflation [22:28] Underlying inflation still subdued [23:15] Inflation target review Tweet at us @aicdirectors or message us on Facebook with feedback on the show or suggestions for upcoming topics.

This week Stephen and Ivan talk about making infrastructure sexy again, as well as the latest labour market data and the ongoing jobs/housing dilemma of the RBA. Discussed in this episode: [0:59] February jobs disaster [1:11] Stephen on the March jobs numbers [1:48] Jobs report sceptics [2:35] 2014 ABS error [3:42] April RBA minutes [5:42] ANZ's job ads data [5:54] NAB business survey [7:03] Polling is getting harder [9:08] Blueprint for Growth [11:30] Snowy Mountains Scheme [12:14] PM's Snowy reboot [13:12] Keynesian stimulus [13:17] Governor Lowe on infrastructure [14:34] Grattan Institute on infrastructure [14:59] Cost-benefit analysis [15:02] NBN's lack of cost-benefit analysis [15:13] NBN cost estimates [15:33] Infrastructure Australia [15:38] Infrastructure Australia priority list [16:22] AICD's Director Sentiment Index [18:02] South Australian energy crisis [18:20] Elon Musk to the rescue [20:12] Stephen on infrastructure borrowing [21:27] 457 visas abolished [22:57] University concerns [23:09] Tech sector concerns [23:43] Benefits of skilled migration [24:02] Value to businesses [24:23] Worrying protectionism [24:46] Trump's H-1B visa executive order [24:56] Budget countdown [25:07] Register for Stephen's Budget webinar Tweet at us @aicdirectors or message us on Facebook with feedback on the show or suggestions for upcoming topics.