The Dismal Science

Mark Thirlwell, Chief Economist at the AICD who analyzes Australian and global policy. He discusses the RBA's new quantitative easing program and why balance-sheet size matters. He explores how QE aims to lower yields and the exchange rate. He also examines polling, probabilistic forecasts and the deeper uncertainty around US election predictions.

We look ahead to next week's US presidential election. Is it the most significant since the depression as some commentators claim? What does it mean for the world and will Trump or Biden win? Plus, a look at the Q3 inflation data and next week's Cup day RBA meeting.

The COVID recession will leave Australia permanently poorer and its population smaller than it otherwise would have been. But are there choices we can make that will help us catch up? Plus a catch-up on the recent economic numbers after our break and the AICD's latest Director Sentiment Index.

The budget heralds a new fiscal era, according to Mark. We look at the record debt and deficit numbers, the 'heroic' forecasts and the policies the government is betting on to restore growth.

What is a K-shaped recovery and are we in one? Plus we preview the budget that Prime Minister Morrison is calling the most important since World War II.

On our 50th episode, we ask whether October's budget or even lower interest rates can supercharge the recovery, which the RBA is describing as a 'slow grind'. Plus disappointing payroll jobs numbers, falling retail sales and Paul Keating gives the RBA a spray.

Surprise good news on the jobs front with unemployment falling below 7 per cent for the first time since the pandemic started. So where are the jobs coming from? Plus house prices, the US fed commits to not lifting interest rates for the long haul, New Zealand goes into recession and the effect unemployment on sleep.

With new data out on the Australian corporate footprint overseas, we ask what's the future of the foreign outpost in a post-pandemic world. Plus a speed round on this week's economic data.

The US Federal Reserve has changed the way it makes monetary policy decisions for the world's largest economy. Its former chair Janet Yellen said that the changes would appear subtle to most "normal human beings". So why is it such a big deal for economists? Plus the latest quarterly GDP numbers put Australia officially in its first recession in three decades. This episode was recorded on 3 September.

The Federal government looks to curb China's influence in the states, plus the Victorian situation continues to take its toll on jobs and investment.