Street Signals

Experience in markets helps practitioners cope with the inevitable cyclicality of economic fundamentals and risk appetite. Combining the muscle memory of past cycles with new ideas and ways of thinking is crucial to lasting success. That's the lesson this week, as we talk to Chris Pizzotti, Global Head of FX Voice Trading at State Street Global Markets, about his formative experiences in trading and how they help him to think about the most pressing questions in markets today. Is volatility back for good or will it subside as quickly as it rose? How aggressive will the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and others be in signalling policy intentions this year? What does it all mean for the dollar, yen, rate markets and EM FX? All crucial questions for macro markets addressed on this week's episode. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets dealt well with volatility in early August and got a boost from the Federal Reserve’s dovish message in Jackson Hole at the end of the month. But September is known for seasonal weakness and is kicking off with worries over global growth and a question of whether anticipated monetary easing is enough to sustain gains in bonds and equities. With these challenges in mind, Marija Veitmane, our head of equity strategy, is back on the podcast to discuss optimal asset allocation strategies for the rest of 2024.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starts tomorrow. It takes on added significance this year, with an easing cycle seen starting next month, in the wake of softer economic data and a bout of market volatility. This year’s forum focuses on the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Rising fears that the Fed is falling behind the curve and not easing quickly enough to ensure continuation of a soft economic landing would suggest that policy transmission has gone mostly as expected. Or has it? This week, Marvin Loh checks in with his thoughts on that question, as well as what message to expect, what actions the Fed and other central banks will ultimately take and when they might take them.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets are settling after a period of volatility, but questions remain about future stability. Key topics include four vital indicators that reveal investor behavior and inflation trends. Listeners get insights into the rotation between large and small cap stocks and ongoing tech stock fluctuations. The discussion also emphasizes the importance of analyzing institutional positioning to forecast market movements. As summer approaches, the implications for equity, rate, and FX markets are explored.

The volatility of the last two weeks can be ascribed to many events and raises more questions than answers. Was it a clear-out of crowded positions in illiquid summer markets or the early stage of a systemic financial event? Is the US economy’s soft landing still on track? Will recent moves in equities, rates and FX now reverse or form new trends? Peter Vincent, our head trading in London, joins the podcast to try and answer those questions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Quiet summer markets were disrupted recently by sharp moves in equities, as the long-standing strength of IT and communication stocks gave way to a surge in valuations for smaller companies. Such price action can be healthy. But where past episodes of market rotation came in a rising market, as volatility fell, the recent rotation in stocks came with wider ranges, higher volatility and a retreat in overall market performance. With stocks still close to all-time highs, we ask Cayla Seder from our Equity Strategy team in the Americas whether this is merely a healthy correction or the start of a worrying trend.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Summer lulls in market activity are common, but this year's calm is unique. Interest rate, FX and volatility markets are rangebound despite jarring headlines and upheavals in politics, and the potential for binary market outcomes in response. The search for high conviction views seems more difficult than normal. That makes it a good time to get the perspective from someone with a day job of managing risk. This week, we speak with Dan Mazza, head of our US FX forwards desk, on where he sees interest rate and currency markets potentially underpriced for the uncertainties ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of 2023, attractive yields and valuations on emerging market assets and currencies made for many consensus long calls from sell-side strategists. Many of those views played out for much of the first half of 2024. And even some of the political and electoral obstacles to performance proved to be short lived, such is the institutional credibility that has strengthened in many developing economies over the last ten years. Dwyfor Evans, our head of emerging markets strategy, joins the podcast this week to offer thoughts on how EM has built a degree of resilience and whether the stability seen so far this year can continue.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trends in US inflation have been, are and will be one of the critical drivers of markets. After a bumpy first quarter, fears of an inflationary spiral are cooling once more and, with the US labor market also showing signs of softness, the Federal Reserve sounds increasingly ready to ease policy as a consequence. But election year politics and stubbornly volatile consumer inflation expectations complicate matters. This week - on US CPI day of all days - Michael Metcalfe, our global head of macro strategy, returns to the podcast to talk through the inflation picture, leveraging insights from our research partner, PriceStats, offering an outlook for how to think about inflation in the short, medium and long terms.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Toby Nangle, an independent analyst, discusses how higher yields are changing asset allocation strategies, specifically in UK pensions. He explores the impact of political events and market movements on UK assets and the pound, offering insights on optimizing investments and navigating the evolving investment landscape.