Street Signals

Underperformance of US Treasuries and the dollar during recent market turmoil begs the question of whether the safe haven status of the US, long taken for granted, will be as easily conferred in future times of trouble. Following the imposition of larger than expected tariffs on US trade partners, It served as a warning that US assets and the currency might require higher risk premia than previously appreciated. Mark Rosenberg, in his capacity as co-founder and CEO of GeoQuant, has considered and articulated exactly these risks as part of his work over recent years. He joins the podcast to discuss the trends in US political risk and the strength of its institutions, translating how they compare to other developed and emerging economies and whether further accounting for these risks in market pricing is warranted.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As financial markets continue to adjust for the ramifications of a global reordering of trade relationships, the first evidence of the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is starting to emerge. Drawing on work that offers an almost real-time monitor of online goods prices, Professor Alberto Cavallo from Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats is back on the podcast to discuss his work in measuring inflation trends past and present. Alberto and his colleagues have already written new, ground-breaking research into the effects that the Liberation Day tariffs are having on retail prices and he offers helpful context in how to understand better the timing and scale of the inflation trends that look most likely to emerge in their wake.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Market volatility is subsiding but risk managers are still determining whether the recent, sharp moves and unusual correlation dynamics in stocks, bonds and currencies have run their course, or if they were preludes to upsets to come. The trade discussion is sure to roll on for the next several months and fiscal policy dynamics are likely to evolve in ways markets must consider. The key question is whether the repricing thus far across assets is sufficient. This week, Street Signals changes its format to discuss these questions, as a roundtable of three senior members of the Macro Strategy Team talk about their current thinking and how outlooks have changed. Dan Gerard and Marvin Loh join from the team in Boston and your host, Tim Graf, sheds his usual agnostic stance in adding to the debate.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Having underestimated the breadth and size of trade barriers imposed by the United States on all its trading partners, markets continue to come to grips with the short and long term implications across assets, while economists and observers try to wrap their heads around what the global trading system, with the US dollar sitting at its center, will look like in the coming months and years. Elliot Hentov, Head of Macro Policy Research at State Street Global Advisors joins the podcast this week, offering a robust framework for assessing the negotiability and sustainability of tariffs, as well as the long-term implications for asset and FX markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

By the end of today, economists and financial market participants are hoping to be in a better position to understand and assess the impact of proposed tariffs on the United States’ largest trading partners. Of course, if the last three months are any guide, all such news on trade is subject to negotiation and compromise. Having had to deal with a barrage of ever-evolving headlines since the start of 2025, Dan Mazza, head of FX Forwards trading in the Americas, joins the podcast, to discuss how the market-making function has evolved in response, whether and where it makes sense to position for further trade-related disruption in FX and interest rate markets and how long-lasting he expects the effects of protectionism to last as a meaningful market driver.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

While US trade and fiscal policy dominate the popular discourse, recent developments across Asia have the potential to be every bit as consequential for FX and equity market returns. Newly announced economic measures from China’s National People’s Congress, the emergence of DeepSeek’s large language model and Japan’s policy choices carry both intra- and inter-regional implications for the macro outlook. This week’s guest, Ben Luk, a senior multi-asset strategist for State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong, walks through the range of considerations investors are making across the region.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Michael Metcalfe, Global Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Global Markets, shares his insights on recent shifts in the U.S. economy. He discusses the declining strength of the dollar amid growing concerns over consumer behavior and governmental fiscal changes. Metcalfe also explores the European economic landscape, highlighting how it is becoming more favorable for investments. He addresses the potential impacts of rising tariffs on inflation and the complexities of policy shifts in both the U.S. and Europe that could influence global markets.

The breakdown in communication between the US and Ukraine two weeks ago, for all the world to see, raises myriad questions, from the near-term state of the peace process in the Ukraine War, to the further-reaching framework of great power dynamics. As our guest this week details, the roles played in an emergent world order by the US, Europe, Russia and China are in flux, and we face potentially the most momentous geopolitical reorientation since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Tsveta Petrova is a lecturer in political science at Columbia University and an analyst and consultant for GeoQuant, a political risk consultancy and one of our research partners.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cayla Seder, a senior strategist at State Street Global Markets, shares her insights on the tumultuous current state of the equity market, particularly within the tech sector. She discusses the fading optimism around US tech stocks, the impact of high interest rates, and potential overvaluation concerns. Cayla explores whether this is a moment for cautious investors to seize buying opportunities or a signal of a bubble about to pop. The conversation also touches on AI's growing energy requirements and its future implications for profitability in tech.

Ning Sun, a Senior Emerging Market Strategist at State Street Global Markets, delves into the often-ignored impacts of trade wars on developing economies. He discusses how U.S. tariffs could reshape Mexico's economy and the fears of foreign direct investment decline. The conversation includes the potential dangers for U.S. companies in Mexico and the semiconductor sector's vulnerability. Sun also highlights the geopolitical repercussions for Asian economies and the shifting dynamics in global partnerships, emphasizing the need for strategic foresight.