Moving Markets

On Monday, US equities bounced back in the last hour of trading to erase early losses and finish in the green. The 2-year US Treasury yield rose to nearly 4%, its highest level since 2007. However, markets remain on something of a knife edge as investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve and other central banks to deliver outsized rate hikes given stubbornly high inflation levels. In fact, Japan just reported that inflation rose 3.0% year-on-year, slightly higher than expected. David Kohl, Chief Economist, provides a preview of the upcoming central bank meetings. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, talks about the Italian elections this weekend and the likely impact on local bonds as well as equities.00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)04:10 Central bank meetings preview by David Kohl (Chief Economist)08:40 Italian elections by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)12:00 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Global equity markets ended their worst week since June this year and are now focused on the various central bank decisions due this week. The weakness in markets reflects expectations of further interest rate hikes around the world and concerns that the aggressive tightening to curb inflation could trigger a recession. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a closer look at US equity and fixed income markets.00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)04:04 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)07:05 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

Concerns over the prospects of higher interest rates and the US company FedEx withdrawing its earnings forecast due to worsening business conditions are weighing on investor sentiment this Friday. Chinese data releases – while better than expected – did not help to calm investors’ nerves. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, notes that the drop in the gold price is the most important development in precious metals markets this week. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, speaks about the Ethereum Merge and highlights that its immediate benefits will not go beyond a reduction in energy consumption. Currently, it is macroeconomic factors that are driving price changes in crypto coins.00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)04:23 FX & metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)07:36 Digital assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)10:27 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

US equities recovered some of their losses yesterday, with Asia following suit, but concerns remain about the pace of US Federal Reserve tightening, as evidenced by the even steeper inversion of the US Treasury yield curve. Norbert Ruecker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on the energy situation and explains why he believes that despite the current higher prices, the market fears over Europe’s energy risks are excessive. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analyst, talks us through the discussions and decisions in this week’s Investment Committee meeting.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:16 EU energy by Norbert Ruecker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)06:33 IC update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)10:06 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

US inflation fell less than expected in August sparking a broad-based sell-off across markets. David Kohl, Chief Economist, provides further insights on the print and what it means for the Federal Reserve. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equities Research, gives an update on equities. 00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)03:20 US inflation numbers by David Kohl (Chief Economist)06:47 Bottom-up sector considerations by Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equities Research)10:46 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

Ahead of key consumer price data due today, stocks rallied around the world yesterday, with risk sentiment lifted on speculation that inflation is near its peak. In Europe, natural gas prices finally dropped after the European Union began outlining the details of its intervention in the energy crisis. David Alexander Meier, Senior Economist, talks about UK politics and the British pound.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)03:59 UK politics and the British pound by David Meier (Senior Economist)08:41 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

US equities rebounded from a three-week losing streak last week, even as bullish sentiment in investor surveys continued to deteriorate.The main economic event this week will be the release of the August US Consumer Price Index on Tuesday. It is the key economic data release before the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on 21 September. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, takes a look at what market action is telling us and what it may mean for US equities, crude oil, and US Treasuries.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)03:56 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)06:30 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve remain committed to bringing down inflation by rising rates further. Meanwhile, UK politics takes a back seat as the world mourns the death of Queen Elizabeth II. David Kohl, our Chief Economist, comments on the interest rate decision by the ECB and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides further insights on the Ethereum merge.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)03:29 ECB interest rate decision by David Kohl (Chief Economist)06:18 Digital assets by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)09:16 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

The European Central Bank (ECB) takes centre stage today and is set to hike rates by either 50 or 75 basis points. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on gold and silver. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, shares his latest insights on currencies. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Office, gives an update on this week’s investment committee decisions.00:08 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)02:42 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)05:36 FX & metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)08:51 IC Meeting Update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)12:16 Closing remarks by Olivier Maris (Investment Writing)

Global stock markets extend their declines as the US dollar continues to strengthen, assisted by higher Treasury yields. Crude oil has fallen to its lowest level since January on concerns that a global slowdown will cut demand in Europe and the US – all this as China’s Covid strategy hurts consumption by the world’s largest crude importer. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research shares his thoughts on the tasks ahead for the UK’s new PM as well as the impact of growth and inflation on the bond markets generally.00:09 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)03:20 Market update with a fixed-income focus by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)05:48 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)