Moving Markets

The annual National People’s Congress in China got underway yesterday and China has set a cautious growth target of “around 5%” for this year. With expectations now that demand may be softer than had been expected, iron ore, copper and oil prices all fell on this news. Eyes will stay on Beijing this week but investors will also be watching out for several economic data releases, including US non-farm payrolls figures due on Friday, and interest rate decisions including the last from the Bank of Japan under the current governor Kuroda. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)03:43 Markets from a technical view by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)06:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Interest rates could continue to rise in both the US and the eurozone. In the US, recent stronger-than-expected economic data has the potential to prompt Federal Reserve officials to raise interest rates more aggressively than previously anticipated. Meanwhile in Europe, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council said that market bets on interest rates reaching 4% may be correct if underlying price pressures remain high. In Asia, China is on the verge of its most significant political reshuffle in decades, favouring politicians with close ties to the president. Timothy Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, explains where he sees opportunities in the currency market, and Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research provides the latest news on digital assets.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)02:55 FX update by Timothy Gagie (Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva)05:04 Digital asset update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)07:47 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

Stock and bond markets fell yesterday as investors adjusted their outlook on peak rates after data highlighted persistent inflationary pressures. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, talks to us about the impact of China’s re-opening on the iron ore market. And Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives us an update from Julius Baer’s Investment Committee.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)04:00 Iron Ore view downgraded to cautious by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)07:09 Investment Committee update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)10:07 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

Strong economic data out of China sent positive waves through the markets - certainly a nice change after February’s losses. In today's episode, Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research gives his view on what our new growth and interest rate forecasts mean for fixed income investors. This episode ends with Richard Tang, our Head of Research in Hong Kong, who shares his thoughts on the upcoming National People's Congress in China.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)03:20 Fixed income strategy update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)07:12 Upcoming National People’s Congress in China by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)12:05 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

After three weeks of losses, US equities staged a minor advance on Monday as better-than-expected US economic data releases fueled the higher-for-longer interest rate narrative. This is also helping to push the US dollar higher for the first time in four months, even as ECB officials are also stressing the need for higher interest rates. David Kohl, Chief Economist, adds more colour to the growth and inflation dynamics in the eurozone and the US, and explains why we now expect further rate hikes not only from the ECB but also from the US Federal Reserve.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)04:37 US and Eurozone growth outlook by David Kohl (Chief Economist)09:38 Closing remarks by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)

In preparation for an expected announcement on a post-Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meet today for final negotiations. In other UK news, the International Energy Week returns to London for the first time since the pandemic. In Asia, government investigations into environmental violations could lead to the complete closure of China’s lithium production hub. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides an update and talks about the fight between the bulls and the bears in the equity market.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)02:46 Technical update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)04:57 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)

On the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US is planning to make an announcement today about “sweeping sanctions”, while China has made a proposal calling for a cease-fire. The major US markets ended the day in the green yesterday, with technology the biggest outperforming sector, and today investors will be watching for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for January. Bence Boldvai, FX and PM Solutions Zurich, provides an update on currencies, and Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research analyst, shares his thoughts on emerging market equities.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 03:23 FX update by Bence Boldvai (FX&PM Solutions Zurich)05:42 Emerging Market Equity strategy update by Nenad Dinic (Equity Strategy)09:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s February meeting show that ongoing interest rate increases are necessary to help stamp out inflation. The Fed’s resolve to keep rates higher for longer is weighing on investor sentiment. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, shares his insights on the European Commission’s proposed reforms of European fiscal rules.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)03:52 EU fiscal rule reform by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)07:38 Closing remarks by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

Concerns about higher interest rates and the state of the consumer continue to weigh on market sentiment. Meanwhile, on the political front, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his first state of the nation address in almost two years, which made for some headlines. Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Research Analyst, gives his view on whether investors should chase this year's stock market rally.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)03:15 Recent rally vs. fundamentals by Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy) 06:04 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)

As Turkey faces yet another series of devastating earthquakes, geopolitics remain at the forefront of investors’ minds this week. US President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to Kiev yesterday, while UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is trying to win support for a post-Brexit deal. Meanwhile in China, the world’s biggest miner reported its lowest half-year profit since 2021, as the country’s economic slowdown hit demand for iron, copper and coal. Luca Menozzi from Next Generation Research provides insight into ChatGPT and the search engine market.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)02:48 Digital Disruption: ChatGPT by Luca Menozzi (Next Generation Research)06:08 Closing remarks by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)