Moving Markets

Defence stocks soared across the globe yesterday after US President Trump called for a bigger military budget. Meanwhile, technology shares stumbled, oil rebounded sharply, and precious metals gained ground. In Asian trading, Fast Retailing impressed with strong earnings, while Rio Tinto slipped on merger talks with Glencore. We also discuss the narrowing US trade deficit, the Fed’s dovish signals, and Switzerland’s muted inflation backdrop. Joining our show today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva, with an update on metals and currencies.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:45) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (08:40) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (12:54) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Investors should prepare themselves for 2026 to be a year that rewards those who adapt early to the resets and rebalancing which are shaping the new investment landscape. So, what are the key themes?In this edition of Moving Markets - The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko sits down with Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, to discuss Julius Baer's Market Outlook 2026 and why it’s important not to let a single country or theme dominate portfolios. Asian equities, artificial intelligence, defensives, and European cyclical stocks all have a role to play. The conversation also covers fixed income positioning, the appeal of Australian dollar bonds, prospects for further US dollar weakness, and whether gold's remarkable run can continue.(00:00) - Introduction to speakers and topic (00:52) - Defining resetting and rebalancing (01:53) - Economic expectations for 2026 (02:46) - The opportunity set is going global (05:51) - Asian AI and tech have room to run (08:03) - Careful portfolio construction required for AI (09:07) - A balanced equity allocation advised for 2026 (09:54) - Fixed income: balancing credit exposure and duration (10:41) - Time to consider Australian dollar bonds (11:52) - Expectations for the US dollar and its alternatives (13:58) - Can the precious metals rally continue? (15:34) - Key messages to take away (16:30) - Closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global equity markets closed marginally lower yesterday as they weighed the US administration’s moves on Venezuela and the potential for escalation regarding Greenland. Nevertheless, there were some bright spots: the Nasdaq was boosted by Alphabet, and the Kospi saw gains this morning as Samsung announced impressive Q4 earnings guidance. Defence stocks rose in Europe, but fell in the US, for different reasons. Amidst the surge in precious metals prices, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, explains why he believes that silver prices have moved too far, too fast of late, and why investors need to distinguish between flow-driven and fundamentals-driven price moves. Tune in to find out where he sees prices going from here.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:22) - Precious metals update: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:30) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global equities surged with US, European, and Asian markets reaching new highs, brushing aside geopolitical concerns. Copper and precious metals spiked on supply concerns and strong demand, while bond markets priced in more rate cuts following softer European inflation data. Still, geopolitical risks and upcoming economic data remain in focus, creating the first challenges of the year in Asian trading this morning. On today’s show, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, shares what these developments mean for the bond market, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, outlines his sector outlook for 2026.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:37) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:24) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (09:58) - Equity market sector update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (12:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity markets have kicked off the first full trading week of the year on a strong note, with major indices in the US and Europe reaching record highs despite persistent concerns over Venezuela and its potential geopolitical ripple effects. Gold and silver continued their breathtaking rally while government bond yields fell a little. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, shares his insights on the situation in Venezuela and the outlook for oil prices.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:40) - Oil price update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (11:03) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global markets surged in 2025, fuelled by economic growth, AI optimism, and central bank rate cuts, though there were sharp swings in volatility at times. Commodities diverged: oil ended lower while precious metals soared, led by gold’s biggest annual gain in 46 years. 2026 started on a strong footing, driven by semiconductor stocks. Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions spiked with the arrest of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, lifting gold as Brent held near USD 60 amid oil supply concerns. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, expects the USD and related assets to remain in a bear market, while precious metals are likely to continue to shine.Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 25.09.2025.This episode is part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts. Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 5th January.When one thinks of safe-haven currencies, the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and US dollar typically come to mind. But with capital flows diversifying away from the US dollar, interest in alternative safe havens is increasing. The Singapore dollar, one of Asia’s most stable and best-performing currencies, stands out as one such potential candidate. In this episode, we explore the unique characteristics of the Singapore dollar, its central role in Singapore’s monetary policy, and how investors can position themselves to benefit from the Singapore dollar’s strength.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Singapore dollar: Yaw Shin Wong, Equity Specialist and Jen-Ai Chuna, Equity Research Analyst (07:35) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 08.04.2025.This episode is part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts. Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 5th January.In this episode of Beyond Markets we take a closer look at water. With water scarcity and extreme weather events on the increase, what do listeners need to know about water-related challenges and opportunities from both a societal and investment perspective? We are joined by Carsten Menke and Maeve Timoney from Julius Baer’s Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Water sustainability: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, Maeve Timoney, Next Generation Analyst and Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership (09:25) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 13.08.2025.This episode is part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts. Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 5th January.In this episode of Beyond Markets, Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, speaks with General David H. Petraeus, Partner at KKR and former US Army General, about leadership lessons from his distinguished military career and how they translate to the corporate world. Their conversation explores recent conflicts, including the India–Pakistan skirmish, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the Russia–Ukraine war, highlighting the critical role of deterrence. They also examine the future of US energy policy amid shifting dynamics in the Middle East and global oil markets, consider China’s growing influence in the Western Hemisphere and its implications, and explore regions with strong potential for development.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - From Battlefield to Boardroom: Leadership in a changing world: Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia and General David H. Petraeus, Partner at KKR and former US Army General (10:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Excerpt from Beyond Markets Podcast, originally published on 24.08.2025.This episode is part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts. Our regular show that starts with daily market news returns on Monday 5th January.Investing in private markets has the potential to create long-term value in portfolios. But how can qualified and professional investors navigate the current marketplace? What does the private equity market look like today? Which factors are driving potential opportunities? And where might the risks lie? In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Fiona Kenyon, Head of Private Markets Specialists at Julius Baer talks to Jack Weingart, Chief Financial Officer at the global alternatives firm TPG, to discuss these questions as they evaluate the current landscape and reflect on the potential risks and rewards.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:40) - Private equity: Jack Weingart, Chief Financial Officer at TPG and Fiona Kenyon, Head of Private Markets Specialists (08:43) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.