Moving Markets

With calm returning to financial markets, investors’ attention turned to corporate earnings. L’Oréal and Morgan Stanley came in ahead of expectations, while Tesla missed expectations, as it plans to further drop the price of its vehicles. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, provides an update on industrial metals, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives us an update on the latest thoughts from our CIO.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:47 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:46 Industrial metals update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)08:58 Our CIO’s latest thoughts by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)11:51 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

The S&P 500 was flat on the day yesterday as there was a mixed bag of earnings. Although the VIX index, a fear gauge for US equities, dropped to its lowest level since the start of the year, a Bank of America survey nevertheless showed that global fund managers have their equity allocations at their lowest versus bonds since the Great Financial Crisis. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, talks about the key take-aways form the earnings releases of large US banks as well as what to focus on as the earnings season continues.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:28 US earnings seasons expectations and review of bank earnings10:33 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Stock markets keep on climbing the wall of worry, with investors seemingly less concerned than equity strategists, as highlighted by major volatility indices printing new lows. Higher yields are probably one of the reasons for the rebound of the US dollar over the last two business days. Find out in today’s show where the currency is heading next, according to our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:35 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:09 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)08:22 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Economic data showing some easing on the inflation front has lifted equity markets around the world, but investors are now turning their attention to the earnings season, with some of the big US banks reporting today. In the bond markets, US interest rates have begun a consolidation process that could extend through to next week and into the pre-FOMC period of silence. David Kohl, Chief Economist, and Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research Analyst, join today’s show to share their views on the latest US inflation data and digital assets.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:39 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:03 Comments on US CPI and PPI data by David Kohl (Chief Economist)09:47 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research Analyst)14:51 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Softening US inflation suggests the US Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates by a further 25 basis points at its next meeting in May, although its rate hike cycle may be nearing the end. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, explains why we are now upgrading the global communications sector to Overweight, and Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, gives us an update on the latest thoughts from our Chief Investment Office.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)01:15 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:04 Global communications sector upgrade by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy Research)09:06 Our CIO’s latest thoughts by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)11:15 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

While Tech shares remained under pressure, closing down for the 5th time in 6 days yesterday, the rest of the market traded rangebound ahead of today’s main data point, the US inflation report for March. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research shares his thoughts on expected US inflation data and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM solutions talks about his thoughts on the latest ups and downs in the currency and metals markets.00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:37 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)05:24 Bond markets and likely impact of forthcoming inflation releases by Dario Messi (Fixed Income research)09:38 FX markets this week by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)14:17 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

Non-farm payroll data out of the US on Friday saw hiring growth moderating and wage rises easing. In China, data published today revealed muted inflation as the consumer price index rose just 0.7% year on year in March, weaker than the 1% forecast. Investors are now watching out for US CPI figures (Wednesday) and PPI data (Thursday) for signs of whether or not the Fed is about to pause or even end its hiking cycle. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest thoughts from a technical perspective.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:47 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:24 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)07:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

Stock markets are torn between the rising recession risks and expectations that yields will fall - defensive sectors have outperformed over the last few hours and US Treasury bonds have continued their impressive rally. Carsten Menke, our Head of Next Generation Research, shares his views on the surprise OPEC+ oil output cut, and Nicolas Jordan from our CIO Office talks about how to tackle the current investment environment.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:43 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:15 What OPEC+ cuts mean for the oil market by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)08:48 CIO update by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy and Investment Analysis)11:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

US stocks snapped a four-day winning streak yesterday as concerns about the banking sector and the broader economic outlook persist. In addition, comments from Federal Reserve officials about higher interest rates for longer are further dampening sentiment at a time when Treasuries are coming off one of their most volatile quarters ever. Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins today’s episode to outline his views on fixed income 00:14 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:35 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)04:14 Bonds and the risk of a credit crunch by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)9:36 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)

US equities finished mixed in trading yesterday, as investors weighed the weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing data against inflation concerns following OPEC+’s plan to cut oil output. Australian equities extend gains for a seventh straight day, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.6%. Our Chief Economist David Kohl provides us with the latest on Eurozone inflation and credit growth and we have an update on digital assets from Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:43 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)04:56 Eurozone inflation and credit growth by David Kohl (Chief Economist)09:22 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)12:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)