Moving Markets

The US National Security Council has announced a security aid package for Israel, and that more support will be announced in the near future. Treasuries jumped the most since March this morning after dovish Federal Reserve comments and the Middle East conflict fuelled a safe-haven rally. Chinese developer Country Garden has stepped up warnings that it's on course for its first ever default and has hired advisers, the strongest indication yet that the company is heading for a restructuring. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research, gives his views on the oil market and the impact of the current conflict in the Middle East on financial markets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:25 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)04:20 Israel – Gaza conflict and market implications by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)10:14 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US stocks staged an impressive turnaround on Friday, but market sentiment is subdued this morning following the escalation in the Middle East. In response to the developments, oil and safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold surged. Meanwhile in Asia, China returns from its ‘Golden Week’ holiday, which saw tourism revenues rise while other consumption figures remained mixed. Markus Wachter from our Technical Analysis Research team joins today’s show to discuss US equities.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:14 Technical Analysis update by Markus Wachter (Technical Analysis Research)09:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The market is focused on today's US employment report. Expectations are for an increase of 170,000 in non-farm payrolls last month, and any sharp deviations from expectations could potentially lead to big moves in financial markets today. There are reports that Exxon is buying Pioneer Natural Resources, which would be the largest acquisition of another company this year. The Reserve Bank of India left interest rates unchanged at 6.5% but warned of inflationary risks. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, gives his views on the state of the Chinese economy and stock market.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:34 China update by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)14:56 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Not such good news from the jobs market was good news for financial markets yesterday with US Treasury yields declining and US equities bouncing off multi-week lows. Longer-dated US Treasuries are experiencing losses similar to US equities during the dot.com crash in the early 2000s. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about gold and notes early signs of investors starting to capitulate after the recent drop.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)05:40 Gold by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)08:48 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

A single report of a stronger-than-expected US labour market was enough to trigger another sell-off in equities yesterday. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, puts rising global yields into perspective, and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions, Geneva, says the rally in the US dollar looks a bit overdone.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:21 Bond Market Update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)10:24 Latest from the FX markets by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)14:54 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Investor sentiment was dealt a further blow yesterday after manufacturing PMI data showed that manufacturing activity in the eurozone continued to weaken. The US managed to outstrip estimates, but remained in contraction territory all the same. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, provides us with the latest news from the digital assets world and the impact on crypto markets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:02 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)09:26 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

US futures raced higher this morning following a last-minute deal on Saturday evening to keep the US government open until at least 17th November. Bond yields are, however, further elevated over concerns of inflation, higher oil prices and how long interest rates will remain high. Chinese markets will be closed this week for the Golden Week holiday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he is bullish on the US dollar and believes that we will see US stocks rally into year end. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:11 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)08:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US equities have struggled in September, but staged a bit of a month-end rally yesterday after US Treasury yields fell back from 15-year highs. Meanwhile in Asia, hopes that China’s Golden Week holiday will boost consumer spending are helping sentiment, as is the news that US and Chinese leaders are in talks to meet. In commodities, oil continues to grab headlines, with Brent on track for its best quarter since Q1 2022. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, joins today’s show and outlines why gold has had a tough week and how the stronger oil price is affecting the FX markets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:05 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)10:39 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Benchmark US oil prices rose to USD 95 a barrel for the first time in more than a year after inventories in the nation's main stockpile fell to critical levels. Meanwhile, the prospect of a US government shutdown is weighing on markets already jittery about higher rates. Norbert Rücker, Head of Macro & Next Generation Research delves into the oil story and further expands on energy transition, whilst Nicolas Jordan shares the views from our investment committee on interest rates, inflation and whether we’ll see a bounce into year end. 00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Alexander Petersen (Investment Writing)03:52 Energy update & Net Zero scenarios by Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)09:39 Update from the CIO office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)12:32 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

September continues to live up to its bad reputation in financial markets, with equities down between 3% and 7% and bond yields continuing to rise. The Federal Reserve's insistence on keeping policy tighter than expected continues to weigh on markets. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, explains how this could also be an opportunity for investors.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Investment Writing)05:57 Bond Market Update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Research)10:54 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.