Moving Markets

Central bank officials continue to push back on aggressive rate cut expectations. While US equity markets are still powering ahead, Europe is looking for direction. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, talks about the latest central bank decisions and what it means for markets in 2024. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, has a special Christmas gift for us.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)07:19 Latest central bank meetings and interest rate outlook by David Kohl (Chief Economist)13:46 Review of FX markets in 2023 by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)16:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

European and US equities closed last week higher and a few new record highs were reached following a series of central bank decisions to leave rates unchanged. A few Fed speakers then stepped in to curb traders’ enthusiasm over likely rate cuts, causing Asian equites (Korea aside) to stall this morning. US futures however point to a steady day ahead. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes that the rally still has legs, and he adds the technical reasons to invest in Indian equities to our fundamental call.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:13 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)08:35 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

After starting the trading day on a strong footing, European markets petered out during the day but still ended in positive territory. European central banks refrain from declaring victory over inflation and stick to their tight monetary policy. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on what this means for currencies and metals.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)07:00 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)12:26 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

After the US Federal Reserve yesterday left interest rates unchanged as expected and signalled interest-rate cuts next year, global stocks gained for a sixth straight session and US Treasury yields plummeted. Today it’s the turn of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank to announce their latest rate decisions, with expectations for a hold in rates across the board. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, shares with us his key takeaways from COP 28 and his current views on the energy transition.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:46 COP 28 by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)10:36 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Although US consumer price inflation figures came in slightly higher than expected, equities continued their Santa Claus rally, with the S&P500 Index now trading at highs not seen since January 2022. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, talks about this week's key central bank meetings and his expectations for their interest rate decisions.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:21 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:26 Bond market update/Central bank preview by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)11:30 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Trading has started this week on a subdued note as investors await the US Consumer Price Index figures later today, which will test the market’s optimism for interest rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, in Asia, China’s Central Economic Work Conference is expected to conclude today and could shed light on how the country plans to support economic growth. In commodities, copper is making headlines as the metal’s supply could tighten due to political and social opposition, and the difficulty of developing new operations. Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research is also on the show today to discuss the key developments in digital assets in 2023.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:25 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)10:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

The world's major central banks meet this week. Apart from Brazil, no rate changes are expected. The focus will therefore be on their forward-looking communication. Germany's DAX index hit a new all-time high on Friday, while better-than-expected US non-farm payroll figures boosted the S&P 500 index. In Asia, China's consumer prices fell by the most in three years in November and the JPY remains in focus after a dramatic spike on Friday. Bitcoin is giving back some of its gains this Monday morning after this year's spike. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that it is a good sign for equities that this year's laggards (European and small caps) are catching up quickly.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)07:28 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)10:02 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

On a day when we await non-farm payrolls data, ahead of a central bank heavy week, one might have expected muted markets. Instead, the three main US indices broke their three-day losing streak as artificial intelligence (AI) announcements drove equities higher. And India’s election results, combined with their central bank’s decision to keep rates unchanged, boosted their stock markets to record highs. The yen surged more than 1% and Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks us through all of the associated market reactions, and highlights his calls ahead of those central bank meetings next week.00:00 Introduction by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:07 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)11:46 Closing remarks by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

A string of labour-focused data releases in the US has the potential to move markets at the end of this week. Meanwhile in Europe, traders are increasing their bets on monetary policy easing from the European Central Bank and are now pricing in six quarter-point rate cuts in 2024. In Asia, Chinese imports and the auction of a 30-year Japanese government bond both disappointed. In commodities, oil stabilised after several days of declines and US gasoline prices hit their lowest level since 3 January 2023. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins today’s show to explain what’s going on in the gold market.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:40 Gold update by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)09:25 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Germany's Dax index, arguably the most cyclical market in Europe, closed at a record high after Isabel Schnabel, a prominent official at the European Central Bank, said the slowdown in inflation was ‘remarkable’. Dario Messi, Fixed Income Research, says that the bond rally may have gone a little too far for now, but there is still plenty of value to be found.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:21 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:14 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)10:21 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.