Moving Markets

The world’s largest technology companies are leading stocks higher around the globe, with the Nasdaq 100 reaching an all-time high yesterday. Treasuries spiked inthe immediate aftermath of yesterday’s jobs report, but the move quickly lost steam. Meanwhile, Italy looks set to proceed with its privatisation push, which could see the country sell EUR 20 billion worth of its stakes in state-owned companies by 2026. InAsia, Japan’s inflation numbers for December came in at the lowest level since June 2022. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, shares his thoughts on what’s happening in the FX markets and Adrienne Jaersvall, Head of Funds Advisory, talks about alternative investments.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:38 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:01 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)11:29 Market Outlook 2024 – Alternative investments by Adrienne Jaersvall (Head of Funds Advisory)16:16 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Stocks around the globe fell for a third day and bond yields rose, as traders trimmed their bets on rate cuts by the Fed after stronger-than-expected US retail sales data. Fed swaps are now showing the probability of a rate cut in March at just 58%, versus 90% for May. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on industrial metals and the Chinese economy. And Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy and Investment Analysis, talks to us about external shocks in markets and the outlook for the global economy.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:15 China/Iron ore by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)10:32 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)13:05 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The market’s positioning for aggressive cuts in the US and Europe is being tested this week by several central bank officials. All of this is pushing US and European bond yields higher and continuing to weigh on equity markets. In Asia, a stock selloff deepened after fresh data redoubled concerns about China’s economy. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research joins today’s show to shed some light on what to expect from bonds this year, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, gives us more insight into the ongoing earnings season.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)01:05 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)07:28 Market Outlook 2024 - fixed income calls by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)11:22 Earnings Season update by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)14:59 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US markets were shut for Martin Luther King Day yesterday, but polling booths in frozen Iowa were open for Republicans who voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump as their next presidential nominee. Also yesterday, the World Economic Forum in Davos kicked off, with the ECB’s Robert Holzmann stealing most of the headlines as he sent European stock prices down and bond prices up with his comments that there might be no scope for rate cuts in the Eurozone in 2024. Hannah Wise, Head of Investment Communication, provides a sneak peek into the forthcoming Market Outlook 2024 Webcast taking place at 10:00 CET on the 18th January, whilst Manuel Villegas rejoins the show from Next Generation Research with the latest news on digital assets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:38 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:47 Market Outlook 2024 Webcast 18th January by Hannah Wise (Head of Investment Communication)10:15 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)15:28 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

US equities rallied last week on growing expectations of lower interest rates and Microsoft became the largest company by market capitalisation. The earnings season kicked off in earnest on Friday with the major banks including JPMorgan reporting, and this will be followed by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs announcing results on Tuesday. The Republican nomination process for the US presidency begins tonight with the Iowa caucuses, where the former President Trump is seen as the clear frontrunner. Chinese equities are only marginally lower as China's central bank did not cut a key interest rate, while Baidu is sharply down as the risk of sanctions on the company has increased. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, points out that the uptrend in (US) equities remains intact, as does the downtrend in bond yields.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)07:01 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)09:50 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US CPI data, revealing that headline prices increased more than expected in December while core inflation fell, disappointed equity markets on Thursday.  A US/UK airstrike on Houthi rebels in Yemen added to inflationary concerns although it did provide a boost to oil prices. Markets are now turning their attention to the US earnings season. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, provide timely updates on what’s hot and what’s not in the FX and equity markets as we start the year.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:30 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)12:24 Market Outlook 2024 – Equities by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)16:06 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Today’s main focus will be the first trading day of the newly approved US spot Bitcoin ETFs and the market’s reaction to the release of US inflation figures. Asian shares are seeing their best day since the start of the year on USD weakness, and the EUR is higher as ECB officials caution against interest rate cuts. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that the muted price reaction to the SEC’s approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs is probably a positive sign. Nicolas Jordan, from the CIO Office, highlights that a more optimistic investor consensus compared with the start of last year means that market fragility has increased in the short term.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:33 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:41 Bitcoin ETF approval by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)11:24 Latest news from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)14:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

As global equities continue to struggle, Japanese equities are hitting highs last seen in 1990. US Treasury yields are higher ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation data while investors continue to look for clues as to the state of the US economy and the direction of interest rates. Bitcoin had a volatile evening yesterday following a false report that the US Securities and Exchange Commission had approved a spot Bitcoin ETF. Dario Messi from Fixed Income Research joins today’s show to shed some light on the US fiscal budget and bond issuance, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, tells us what to expect from the earnings season that’s just around the corner.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:38 Bond marker update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)10:20 Earnings Season Preview by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)13:25 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

While a string of economic data prints out of Germany disappoint, big tech made a comeback yesterday, with the Nasdaq Composite posting its best daily return since November. After Swiss inflation remained stable in December, the Swiss franc shows renewed strength and the SMI is one of the few European indices in positive territory year to date. And Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talks to us about the health of the Japanese equity market and why he sees India as a rose among the thorns. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:36 Asia update: India, China and Japan by Mark Matthews (Head of Research Asia)16:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

A string of hawkish comments, a rise in inflation rates in Europe and a strong US employment report last week had market participants worried that interest rates were set to stay higher for longer than they had hoped, putting stocks and bonds on course for one of the worst starts to the year in a decade. In China, investors are faced with the shadow banking giant Zhongzhi filing for bankruptcy, marking one of China’s biggest-ever corporate collapses. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins the show today to discuss the technical setup of the market and why you shouldn’t pay too much attention to the first week of equity market performance when it comes to its implications for the rest of the year.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)07:20 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)11:32 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.