Moving Markets

European markets managed to close Monday’s session higher but the same could not be said for the US, where tech stocks fared the worst. Strong US retail sales data pushed back expectations of rate cuts there until September. Concerns about an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East did little to calm jittery Asian markets and they fell further on mixed economic data from China. Norbert Rücker explains why it’s important not to underestimate the resilience of the energy market regardless of geopolitical storms, and Manuel Villegas reveals the reasons for the recent price reversal in digital assets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)w00:30 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:04 Geopolitical update: Norbert Rücker (Head of Macro & Next Generation Research)09:38 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)13:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Tim Gagie from Geneva discusses high bond yields, equities rebound, and gold hitting record highs. Topics include the US inflation impact, yen positions, and insights on gold and metals market trends.

US inflation concerns impact markets, with Wall Street down while European and Asian equities hold steady. ECB rate decision and JPY intervention fears discussed. Copper rally and benefits of Swiss and value stocks highlighted. US inflation data and economic outlook analyzed, along with ECB rate cut possibilities and portfolio allocations.

Market action appears subdued as investors around the world await key US inflation data later today. Meanwhile, on a more company-specific level, ‘everything AI’ still seems to be the trend. In the Asia-Pacific region overnight, data showed that Japan’s corporate inflation rate rose for the third month in a row, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.5%. Fixed Income strategist Dario Messi joins the show today to discuss longer-maturity bonds, and Mathieu Racheter, our Head of Equity Strategy, previews the upcoming earnings season.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:12 Bond Market Update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)10:08 Q1 Earnings Season Preview by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)14:04 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

The major US equity indices closed around flat yesterday while small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 index gaining 0.5%. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.43%, prompting investors to raise their bets on the Fed cutting rates just twice this year following last week’s jobs data upside surprise. And David Kohl, Chief Economist, provides his outlook for the future interest rate policy paths for the Fed and the ECB.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)05:54 Outlook for the Fed and ECB by David Kohl (Chief Economist)11:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Markets had a difficult start to the second quarter last week, with the S&P 500 posting its worst weekly performance for 3 months as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices led to growing concerns about inflation. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report on Friday has led investors to continue to price in fewer Fed rate cuts, pushing yields on government bonds to key levels. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why 4.5% is an important level for 10-year US Treasury yields.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)07:10 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)10:21 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Markets took a sharp risk-off turn in late US trading yesterday. The main catalyst was rising tensions in the Middle East, with oil prices rallying above USD 90/bbl for the first time since October, which in turn added to existing fears about inflation. In Switzerland, inflation figures for March once again surprised to the downside, which put pressure on the Swiss franc. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about what he expects for the safe-haven currency going forward and why he expects some currency crosses to continue to trade rangebound.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)07:02 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)11:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

After a cautious start to Q2, equity markets regained their stride in Wednesday’s session climbing higher across regions. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed is still in wait-and-see mode when it comes to rate cuts, but markets took more comfort from the fact that he reaffirmed that the Fed is likely to cut rates this year. Our Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Norbert Rücker, explains the different narratives at play in the oil market and what they might mean for the future trajectory of the oil price, and Head of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, makes the case for his upgrade of global industrial stocks to Overweight.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:09 Oil by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)10:05 Industrials upgrade by Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)14:37 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Dario Messi, a Fixed Income strategist, discusses the impact of sticky inflation data on global equities, bond market movements, and the rise in commodity prices. The podcast covers insights on interest rate trends, European inflation, Asia-Pacific markets, Bitcoin fluctuations, and strategies for navigating the bond market amid evolving monetary policies.

Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses how US manufacturing data affects Treasury yields and stocks. He advises investors to focus on productive assets due to strong market momentum. The podcast also covers S&P 500 performance, Japanese equities outlook, and the technical breakout in gold prices.