Moving Markets

A batch of underwhelming data out of the US keeps rate cut expectations for the Fed alive. While that helped US yields to trade lower in yesterday’s session, European yields remained steady for the most part ahead of this Sunday’s first round of parliamentary elections in France. The political uncertainty continued to weigh on equities in Europe, while their US counterparts ended the day higher, with the Magnificent 7 cohort closing at a new record. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about what is going on in FX markets and explains why it might be a good idea to protect your gains in gold.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:21 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)05:51 Currencies and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)10:42 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Major US stock indices eked out only minor gains yesterday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (PCE), due tomorrow. Shares in chipmaker Micron Technology slumped in afterhours trading yesterday, with reverberations being felt across Asia-Pacific markets today. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, shares his thoughts on the drivers behind the recent rebound in oil prices.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:09 Oil update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)11:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

While it was only a few consumer services and information technology stocks that drove the gains in the US equity markets yesterday, the good news came from a successful auction of 2-year Treasury notes by the US Treasury Department. Dario Messi of Fixed Income Research explains why the results of these US Treasury auctions have become so important for investors.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:21 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:01 Bond market update by Dario Messi (Fixed Income Strategy)10:15 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European equity markets rose on reports that China and the European Union will sit down to discuss the EU's plan to impose additional tariffs on electric vehicle imports, despite uncertainty over the French election. 70% of the S&P 500 constituents were higher, but the index was lower on weakness in Nvidia. Shein is in the news for a possible IPO. Asian stocks are higher, but mainland China is lower. Hannah Wise, Head of Investment Communications, previews this week's Market Outlook Mid-Year 2024 webcast on Thursday, details of which are available on the Julius Baer LinkedIn page. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, highlights the importance of being able to tolerate short-term drawdowns amid weakness in digital assets.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)07:19 Market Outlook Mid Year 2024 Webcast, on 27th June: Hannah Wise (Head of Investment Communication)10:39 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)14:26 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

After markets were rattled by weaker-than-expected economic data last Friday, investors are facing rising political risks this week, with the first US presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump scheduled for Thursday and the French election on Sunday. Recent leading indicators point to a slowdown in economic momentum in Europe, weighing on equities, while US technology companies are having a tough time with European regulators. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why the technical setup for equities remains positive, why interest rates could trend lower in the summer months and why US equities remain his favourite region.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)07:08 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)11:10 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts

European equities were higher as investor confidence returned following a successful auction of French government debt. In the US, however, mega-cap tech stocks dragged the broader market lower, pausing the impressive rally seen in recent weeks. David Kohl, Chief Economist, discusses why he believes Swiss interest rates will continue to fall and that the Bank of England is unlikely to cut until September this year.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:35 Comments on SNB and BoE meetings by David Kohl (Chief Economist)13:34 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Stock markets in Europe took a breather yesterday as traders looked for fresh catalysts to extend the latest tech-driven gains. After government bond yields across the eurozone edged higher, we take a look at the line-up of today’s central bank meetings and expectations for their policy decisions. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, gives an update on supply and demand in the copper market, and the outlook for the metal.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:51 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)07:16 Copper: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)11:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Recent macroeconomic data from the US may encourage the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates, although officials have stressed that inflation needs to fall further before any action is taken. Meanwhile, in company-specific news, Nvidia’s share price soared, making it the most valuable listed company in the world. In Asia, Japan released a mixed batch of economic data, while minutes from the Bank of Japan’s latest meeting revealed that officials discussed the possibility of accelerating the pace of policy normalisation. With several central bank meetings scheduled this week, Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Research, joins us today to share his insights on what to expect.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:46 Central banks and bond markets by Markus Allenspach (Head of Fixed Income Research)12:33 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

French assets stabilised after last week's rout and the S&P 500 hit its 30th all-time high this year, while Indian equities also hit new highs after their election blues. Nvidia's rally this year is making life difficult for technology sector ETFs. The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today, but a rate hike was discussed. Bitcoin is at its lowest level in a month, but remains well within its trading range since March. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about the Swiss franc, which is caught between a likely rate cut and safe-haven demand amid French election uncertainty.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)07:22 FX and metals update by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)12:14 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

European markets were weighed down last week by heightened political uncertainty emanating from France, while US markets enjoyed a solid week on the back of encouraging inflation data. The divergence was clearly visible in relative equity performance, with the weekly gap between the S&P 500 (+1.6%) and the French CAC 40 (-6.2%) the widest since early March 2022, just after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Investors looking for safe-haven assets pushed gold higher and yields lower. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he would still wait before turning bearish on European equities, why yields could very well fall further and why he still likes large-cap US growth stocks.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)07:07 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)10:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.