Moving Markets

Global equity markets struggled to find interest in the last 24 hours as traders and investors alike digested more US and European data whilst waiting with baited breath for today’s US non-farm payrolls data. The only area that saw appetite was the tech sector, in particular the Magnificent Seven. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, provides an update on the latest developments in China, as well as reiterating why we see good opportunities in Japanese equities.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:21 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:35 Asia update by Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)15:32 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Investors are grappling with a flood of data this week. Yesterday’s releases from the US revealed a two-year high in the trade deficit, a slowdown in the labour market and a cautious outlook from the Fed’s Beige Book. However, there was some respite as US factory orders rebounded after two lacklustre months. As equities continue to struggle for traction in September, a key segment of the US Treasury yield curve brieflyinverted yesterday. In this episode, we’re joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who provides an update on the oil market. In addition, Ronny Kaufmann from our CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis team provides insights into our investment strategy and discusses the recent investment boom in the technology sector.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)07:30 Oil update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)11:15 Update from the CIO Office by Ronny Kaufmann (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)14:40 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

September gets off to a rocky start for stocks, with semiconductors plummeting. The S&P 500 index has suffered its worst September opening in years, tumbling over 2% amid renewed worries about overstretched valuations in AI-related stocks and a disappointing manufacturing report. Meanwhile, oil prices have wiped out their entire year-to-date gain, while the Japanese yen surges. In this episode, we're joined by Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Research expert, who shares her bullish case for Brazilian stocks and bonds.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:38 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:41 Brazilian bond market update by Eirini Tsekeridou (Fixed Income Research)09:58 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

European markets were flat after reaching a record high last week, held back by weak economic demand from China. Rolls Royce fell sharply on concerns over a faulty engine part in the Airbus 350. Swiss PMIs surprise to the upside, while manufacturing activity in France and Germany remains sluggish. Volkswagen plans its first plant closure in Germany since it was founded 87 years ago. In Asia, Japan's Topix index rises for a sixth consecutive session, led by financials on higher bond yields. Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, notes that the next few weeks will shape the outlook for crypto assets for the rest of the year.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)07:46 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)10:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

After US Treasuries and the S&P 500 index advanced for a fourth consecutive month in August, investors brace for September, a typically challenging month for markets, ahead of crucial US jobs data due on Friday. A significant shift to the far right in German state elections yesterday sent shockwaves through the European political landscape. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, offers an update on the markets from a technical perspective and shares his outlook for the US dollar.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)07:21 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)09:49 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Nvidia did not meet lofty earnings expectations and its stock fell 6%, while revised Q2 US GDP figures beat expectations at 3%, meaning more stocks rose than fell on the S&P 500. US Treasury yields rose on the better economic data, although Treasuries are on track for a fourth month of gains. In Europe, inflation fell and Germany's DAX rose to near all-time highs. Asian equities are higher, led by China on reports ofincreased support for the ailing housing market, while Tokyo inflation data supports the case for further interest rate increases there. Today's key data will be the core PCE inflation figures - the US Federal Reserve's key inflation indicator. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, discusses whether we have seen the end of the dollar's weakness.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:21 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)08:48 Currencies and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)12:58 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Markets braced themselves for Nvidia’s Q2 results yesterday with the top three indices all closing lower on the day. Nvidia then delivered results that beat expectations, but apparently not by enough and the stock fell more than 8% in after-hours trading. The impact was felt globally by the rest of the tech universe. In today’s special episode we also hear from our Group CIO, Yves Bonzon, who talks about his views on markets after elevated volatility this month, the Fed, where the question is no longer if they will cut interest rates, but by how much, and gold, which continues to rise to new all-time highs. Norbert Rucker also provides a timely update on the state of the energy markets.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)05:09 Market update, the Fed and gold (pre-recorded): Yves Bonzon (Group CIO)13:58 Energy markets – update on oil and gas: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)18:36 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Artificial intelligence leader Nvidia reports earnings today and the market is bracing for impact. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence has taken a step up, but still lags behind pre-pandemic levels. In China, another set of disappointing earnings results has sparked concerns over the country’s slowing economy. In today’s episode, we're joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, for an update on monetary policy and bonds, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who provides an update on the healthcare sector and obesity drugs.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:41 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:16 Fixed income update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)10:45 Healthcare Stocks: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)14:26 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equity benchmarks struggled in trading yesterday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices posting losses amid a rotation out of big tech and into small caps. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Equal Weight indices both hit record highs after US Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments on Friday. David Kohl, Chief Economist, shares his key takeaways from last week’s Jackson Hole summit and outlines his thoughts on the future paths of Fed and ECB policy.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)07:03 Jackson Hole/Fed outlook: David Kohl (Chief Economist)13:19 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Risk assets ended the week on a strong note after Jerome Powell made it almost certain that interest rates will be cut next month. This led to a further fall in the USD and gold closing above USD 2500 an ounce for the second week in a row. Oil prices rose on rising tensions in the Middle East, but only a little as investors seem to have become immune to short-term military exchanges in the region. Nvidia is due to report quarterly results after the US close on Wednesday - it could well shape investor sentiment given its bellwether status. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research, notes that the technical picture looks good, with the MSCI World, S&P 500 Equal Weight index and US high-yield bonds all at all-time 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)07:01 Technical Analysis by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis Research)10:15 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.