Moving Markets

US small business owners are experiencing their highest level of optimism in over 40 years, fuelled by expectations of tax cuts and deregulation under Donald Trump. US producer prices rose less than expected in December, providing some relief, although today's consumer price data release will be key. The UK reported lower-than-expected inflation in December, weighing on the pound, while Japan's yen strengthened on hints of impending rate hikes. The US earnings season kicks off today, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and what makes them outperform. Leonardo Pellandini, Equity Strategy Research, discusses the US earnings season and what to look out for.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:33 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)12:25 Earnings Season Preview: Leonardo Pellandini (Equity Strategy)17:04 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

It was a mixed bag for global equities at the start of the new trading week. European equities stumbled in response to last week's robust US jobs data, while US markets saw a significant shift away from technology stocks and towards energy, healthcare and materials. Market sentiment is being driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will be cautious with regard to cutting interest rates this year, higher global government bond yields and a strengthening US dollar. Meanwhile, Japanese equities faced headwinds overnight amid growing expectations of an imminent rate hike. Joining us to break down the current state of the crypto world is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:50 Digital assets update by Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)10:12 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Friday’s US jobs report saw global stocks wipe out their 2025 gains while the US dollar jumped to its highest level in over two years. Meanwhile, swap traders are slashing their bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year amid the global bond rout. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his latest views on markets from a technical perspective.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:58 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Technical Analysis update)09:27 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global economic data showed mixed signals, with German exports and industrial production beating expectations, while UK bond yields rose to a 15-year high. In China, the government suspended purchases of government bonds, sending yields soaring, as the currency is suffering from an interest rate disadvantage versus the USD. Meanwhile, gold prices are showing resilience, rising to a four-week high. Next up is the critical US employment report. Tim Gagie, Head of FX&PM Solutions Geneva, discusses the massive USD surge and GBP weakness so far this year.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)07:08 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)10:57 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

December’s Fed Minutes released yesterday revealed that FOMC members believe that upside risks to their inflation outlook have increased and that incoming President Trump’s policies likely will not help matters. Neither US nor European data releases helped stocks yesterday. European markets had a mixed Wednesday with indices up or down in the order of half a percent. US stocks also struggled for direction ahead of today’s market closure for President Jimmy Carter’s funeral. China’s overnight inflation data seemed to confirm that Beijing’s stimulus efforts aren’t reviving demand yet. Bond market prices continued to fall with new record highs being set in longer-dated yields from the US to the UK. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to provide an update on digital assets, whilst Nicolas Jordan delivers his regular update from the CIO office.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)07:07 Digital assets update: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)10:58 Update from the CIO Office: Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)14:43 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

While European equity markets rose in yesterday's trading, their US counterparts had a rough day as the latest economic data added to speculation that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged this month amid inflationary pressures. This pushed Treasury yields higher across the curve, with traders no longer fully pricing in a Fed rate cut before July. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, tells us why he would tactically take the opportunity to close any duration gap, but would still avoid excessive duration at this stage.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)05:40 Starting the year with higher bond yields: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)11:00 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

A rally in the world’s largest US technology companies lifted stocks globally yesterday amid renewed investor optimism for all things AI, prompting Nvidia to close at an all-time high. Meanwhile, Japan’s finance minister Katsunobu Kato issued a fresh warning today against speculative yen selling after the currency fell to its weakest level since July 2024. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides an update on supply and demand drivers in the natural gas market.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:02 Natural gas: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)10:41 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equities began 2025 with a brief sell-off followed by a rebound, while Chinese shares are having their worst start to a year since 2016. Microsoft said that it will spend USD 80 billion on data centres this year. This week, investors will be watching economic data releases, including PMI and employment figures, to gauge the global economic outlook. Upcoming events later this month include earnings reports from majorUS banks, the People's Bank of China's interest rate decision, Donald Trump's inauguration, and US Federal Reserve and ECB interest rate decisions at the end of the month. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that the S&P 500 needs to regain the psychologically important 6000 level after last month's decline.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)06:52 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)09:54 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts, today's show features a clip from a conversation where Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, talks to host Emily Rookwood about the surprising fact that buildings surpass sectors like aviation and transportation in terms of global carbon emissions. Carsten highlights investment opportunities in insulation materials, heating and cooling systems, and smart building technologies, while addressing the challenges of retrofitting existing buildings and the cyclical nature of the real estate market.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:45 How can we make buildings better? Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research) and Emily Rookwood (Head of Publications)10:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

As part of a special two-week series featuring highlights from Julius Baer’s recent Beyond Markets podcasts, today's show features a clip from a conversation where Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the current and expected market environment as the new economic cycle unfolds, and what opportunities this should present going into 2025. 00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Market Outlook 2025: Christian Gattiker (Head of Research), Mark Matthews (Head of Research Asia), Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)11:15 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.