Moving Markets

This morning, Iran named Mojtaba Khamanei, the man President Trump said would be unacceptable in the post, as its new leader. The immediate market reaction was a spike in the price of Brent crude oil to nearly USD120 per barrel, and a pronounced selloff in Asian stock markets. These moves have since reversed somewhat after the Financial Times wrote that G7 leaders will have talks with the International Energy Agency today regarding a possible release of energy reserves. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong explains why positioning is driving Asian equity markets more than fundamentals right now, and looks beyond the fog of war to identify attractive Asian equity sectors. And Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis focuses on what the charts reveal when it comes to the price of oil and the trajectory of US equity markets.(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (01:18) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:17) - Asia update: Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong (11:27) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (15:13) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The recent US and Israel strike on Iran has introduced a new layer of uncertainty to global markets, with investors closely monitoring the implications for oil & gas, and portfolios overall. How should investors interpret these developments and position themselves amid heightened geopolitical risk?In this episode of Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, and Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory, to discuss the market impact of the Middle East escalation. The conversation covers the immediate effects on oil and gas prices, the scenarios investors should consider, and how clients are responding to volatility across asset classes. The discussion also explores the role of gold, the importance of strategic asset allocation, and why infrastructure and alternatives are gaining traction as diversifiers in uncertain times.(00:00) - Introduction (00:48) - Assessing the current situation in the Middle East (01:31) - Client reactions and portfolio positioning (02:31) - Market responses: commodities and oil price dynamics (03:31) - Key scenarios for oil and gas markets (05:17) - The impact of shipping and insurance costs (05:56) - Oil price outlook and investor implications (07:01) - Broader market effects: equities and fixed income (08:16) - Gold’s performance as a diversifier (11:24) - Scenario analysis: prolonged conflict and market consequences (12:39) - Harnessing volatility and portfolio strategies (13:27) - Investment topics for the long-term (15:25) - The enduring importance of strategic asset allocation (16:32) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global markets saw another volatile session as escalating Middle East tensions drove oil prices sharply higher and dampened risk appetite. Equities fell across the US and Europe, and US bond yields moved higher as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts. In tech, potential new US restrictions on AI chip exports weighed on sentiment, though software stocks bucked the trend with a notable rebound. Asian markets were mixed overnight. Joining our show today is Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, for the latest on currencies and metals.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:02) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (11:10) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US and European equities rebounded yesterday as the absence of another energy spike supported sentiment. Strong US job gains and a firm ISM services reading eased growth concerns, reduced expectations for a July rate cut, and lifted major indices, with technology leading. The US dollar held firm, investors are positioned for a weaker euro, and Swiss franc strength triggered a second round of SNB verbal intervention. Bitcoin surged, China set a cautious growth target, and Asian markets – especially South Korea – rebounded sharply after steep losses. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, provides a timely update on the oil and gas markets following the near‑halt in activity through the Strait of Hormuz.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:12) - Oil and gas update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (12:14) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US and European stock markets fell further yesterday although some relief was provided by Trump’s promise to accompany vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.  Both oil and the US dollar strengthened, but gold and silver fell, and overnight Asia’s stock markets suffered a bruising session with the Kospi falling more in one day than it has since 2001. Joining the show today are our research team heads of Equity Strategy, Mathieu Racheter, and Fixed Income, Dario Messi, to provide some context on the recent moves in global equity markets and US Treasuries, as well as some suggestions on how to position portfolios in the current situation.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:08) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (09:31) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (13:11) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

While European markets tumbled amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, US equities held up surprisingly well. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 managed to post modest gains, supported largely by strength in the technology sector. This morning, however, oil prices have climbed further as tensions continue to rise, and Asian markets are deep in negative territory. Today, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who puts the latest moves in precious metals into perspective.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:33) - The impact of geopolitics on precious metals: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:10) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated over the weekend, with coordinated strikes by the US and Israel targeting Iranian facilities and leadership. In response, Iran has launched retaliatory strikes across the Gulf region. The surge in hostilities has placed global markets under heightened scrutiny. Equity indices are trading lower, while safe-haven assets - including the Swiss franc and gold - are seeing increased demand. Oil prices have spiked overnight, driven by fears of potential supply disruptions in one of the world’s most critical energy regions. In this episode, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, provides timely analysis on the evolving geopolitical landscape and its implications for global investors. He is joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who outlines key technical support levels for equity markets and shares his outlook for oil and precious metals.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:26) - Middle East situation: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research (10:18) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (12:13) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The recent US Supreme Court decision on tariffs has shifted the landscape for investors, replacing a patchwork of country-specific measures with a temporary universal tariff. What does this mean for markets overall, different countries and sectors, the US dollar and fixed income?In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets – The View Beyond podcast, Helen Freer is joined by Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, to discuss the implications of the Supreme Court’s ruling against the tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act last year. The conversation covers the short-term reduction in uncertainty, the winners and losers among countries and sectors, the impact on corporate earnings, and the unresolved question of tariff refunds. Christian Gattiker also shares insights on the muted reaction of the US dollar, the outlook for fixed income, and the key takeaways for investors as US trade policy enters a new phase.(00:00) - Introduction (00:42) - What the decision means for investors in the short term (01:28) - The temporary universal tariff (02:06) - Winners and losers by country and sector (03:32) - Ongoing uncertainty and the medium-term outlook (04:12) - Will there be an impact on corporate earnings? (04:47) - The unresolved issue of tariff refunds (05:31) - The US dollar reaction and outlook (06:22) - Fixed income perspective: uncertainty, fiscal effects, and inflation (07:32) - Key takeaways (07:59) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Major stock indices ended mostly lower after a two‑day rally. In the US, the Information Technology sector fell nearly 2%, weighed down by a 5.5% drop in Nvidia shares. In contrast, the equally weighted S&P 500 gained 0.6%. Treasury prices and gold edged higher as investors sought safe‑haven assets following the conclusion of US - Iran talks, which ended without any tangible progress. Today, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his views on precious metals and alternatives for those looking to diversify beyond the US dollar.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (05:40) - FX & Metals markets update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland (08:36) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Nvidia delivered results yesterday that beat analysts’ expectations but failed to cause more than a brief rally in extended trading. Nevertheless, US indices ended the day higher, with the Nasdaq Composite closing up 1.26%, and Asia’s tech-biased indices following suit. The Nikkei 225 breached 59,000 for the first time as the Takaichi trade continued.  Elsewhere investors await further tariff announcements from the US in the coming days. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins today’s show to explain why, despite rising geopolitical tensions, he believes that the trajectory for both oil and European natural gas prices will be down as we head towards the summer.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:42) - Energy update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (11:49) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.