Moving Markets

US markets plummeted yesterday due to growing fears of a looming recession, with the major US stock indices all falling sharply, amid ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariff policies. The sell-off was particularly brutal in the tech sector, while the VIX volatility index surged 19% and bond yields plunged, reflecting heightened investor anxiety. On today’s podcast, we are also joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, with an update on the German Bund market.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:18 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)11:01 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Last week, the S&P 500 fell 3.10% suffering its worst week since September last year. The Dow Jones fell 2.37%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 3.45%. Meanwhile, in Europe the Stoxx 600 closed 0.46% lower on Friday, marking its first losing week in 2025. Nevertheless, Europe’s new plans to increase spending on defence did have a positive effect on the aerospace and defence sectors. Canada has a new Prime Minister in the form of ex Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney. Although he has not actually assumed the role yet, he is already promising to stand up to President Trump. He might have to stand up to China first: they announced new tariffs (some up to 100%) on some of Canada’s goods over the weekend. Our Head of Technical Analysis, Mensur Pocinci, joins the show today to explain why we should pay attention to the 200-day moving average when examining US equities charts.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)06:19 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)09:09 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equity markets continued to sell-off yesterday, driven by disappointing tech-earnings, Chinese AI innovations, and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policy – even after he decided to exempt some goods from Mexico and Canada. In contrast, European equities largely defied the trend, with German equities continuing to rally. Joining us today to discuss the energy landscape is Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who discusses the potential implications of a ceasefire deal in Ukraine on energy prices.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)0025 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)06:33 Geopolitics and energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)11:39 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

European markets surged following German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz's commitment to do 'whatever it takes' to ramp up defence and infrastructure, but this vow comes with a price tag:  increased fiscal spending. Consequently, government bond yields soared across the continent. Meanwhile, in the US, markets rebounded after President Donald Trump temporarily lifted his 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican auto imports. Joining us to break down the implications for currencies and metals is Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Sales in Geneva.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)0025 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)06:08 FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)11:11 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player.

Investors have a lot to digest. With US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China now in force – along with some retaliatory measures from affected countries – US Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted that the US may reconsider some tariffs. Meanwhile, in Europe, the European Commission and Germany have unveiled plans to significantly increase defence spending. In Asia, all eyes are on China's National People's Congress, where the government has set an economic growth target of around 5% for 2025. No wonder global equity markets are experiencing volatility this week, and bond markets are no less turbulent. Joining us to shed light on the latest developments in fixed income is Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research. We're also joined by Richard Tang, our Head of Research in Hong Kong, for expert analysis on the National People’s Congress.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:37 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:20 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)10:48 China’s NPC news: Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)16:48 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US equities did not like the news of weak manufacturing data and President Trump's announcement of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, as well as increased tariffs on Chinese imports. The move prompted swift retaliation from Canada and China, who imposed their own tariffs on US goods. The S&P 500 fell 1.8% and Nvidia dropped nearly 9% but defensive sectors, like healthcare and consumer staples, rose on the day. European equities moved higher yesterday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 gaining 1.6% on easing inflation, anticipated monetary easing and the prospect of a large German stimulus package. Chinese stocks are reacting calmly to the tariff news, while export-heavy Japanese stocks are falling. Next up: Donald Trump's speech to Congress (later on Tuesday) and China's National People's Congress meeting (Wednesday). Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, notes that Bitcoin is a risk-on asset and a high-beta play on US equities in the short term.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)07:14 Digital assets update: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)11:14 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

US President Trump's surprise announcement that Bitcoin will be included in a new US strategic reserve saw its value soar over 20% from last week's lows. Meanwhile, investors are now in wait-and-see mode as to whether Trump will push through his planned 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and the extra 10% on China this week. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:47 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)10:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Tariffs are back on the table after President Trump confirmed yesterday that the delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada will take effect on 4 March, while China will face an additional 10% tariff on top of existing levies. While investors are still wondering if this is just a negotiating tactic or not, stock markets were broadly lower yesterday and overnight. Meanwhile, Nvidia had to say goodbye to the exclusive USD 3 trillion market capitalisation club, as its shares plummeted despite a robust earnings report. Today, all eyes are on the upcoming release of the US PCE price index release – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Joining us today is Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX & PM Solutions, with a deep dive on currencies.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)07:39 FX and metals: Thomas Caflisch (Head of FX & PM Solutions)10:40 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The much-anticipated earnings report of chipmaker Nvidia, the posterchild of the AI revolution, failed to spark enthusiasm although it did suggest that the AI investment boom remains alive and well. For now, European stocks may be a good place for investors too with benchmark indices scaling fresh highs almost daily. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, shares his insights on how a potential peace agreement in Ukraine could impact the construction and rebuilding industries.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)05:37 Ukraine reconstruction by Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)09:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

US growth concerns and geopolitics keep investors busy ahead of Nvidia’s much-anticipated earnings report later today. Germany's incoming chancellor seeks to boost defence spending, while US yields decline amid uncertainty over Trump's policies and weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence data. Global markets react, with bonds rallying, the dollar down, and equities slipping, especially tech stocks. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, explains why he expects European yields to continue to trend lower. And we have Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, on the show to share his expectations for Nvidia’s earnings report after today’s market close.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)06:13 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)11:04 European equity markets: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)14:56 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.