Advisory Opinions

Echelon Insights predicts that we will see record turnout this election cycle. How might a surge in, say, 2o million new voters this year affect the presidential race in battleground states? “If we’re talking the day after the election about why the polls were wrong,” Sarah warns on today’s episode, “it will be because of the extraordinary turnout, and [pollsters] were unable to figure out where those turnout increases were coming from.” Tune in to today’s episode to hear David and Sarah’s take on early voting in swing states, the importance of political rallies, and the DoJ’s antitrust lawsuit against Google. Show Notes: -Join The Dispatch for a post-election gathering featuring congressional leadership, top policy and political experts November 9-10: Sign up here! -Most popular websites since 1993 ranked, Google’s statement against the DoJ lawsuit, and “For Trump Superfans, Huge Rallies Can't Resume Soon Enough,” by Andrew Egger in The Dispatch. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Still shocked by the grand polling meltdown of 2016, many Americans on both sides of the aisle are convinced that Biden’s double digit national polling lead is inaccurate and that Trump will somehow win the election in a landslide. This theory has three main hypotheses: 1) Trump is such a uniquely divisive candidate that his supporters lie to pollsters and say they plan to vote for Biden, 2) the likely electorate problem, and 3) Republicans are less likely to talk to pollsters in the first place. Sarah and David break down these theories and explain why they’re overblown given the data we have at this point in the race. Stay tuned for a legal breakdown of the Supreme Court’s latest cert grants related to deer jacking, the hot pursuit doctrine, asylum seekers, and the southern border wall. Show Notes: -Join The Dispatch for a post-election gathering featuring Congressional leadership, top policy and political experts Nov. 9-10: sign up here! -Nate Cohn for the New York Times and “Are Silent Trump Voters Real, or Just a Myth?” by Jonah Goldberg in The Dispatch. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s October 15, 2020, and 12.4 percent of the votes that were cast in the 2016 election have already been cast this election cycle. Sarah and David try to discern through the tea leaves what this means for voter turnout this year. “There’s two different schools of thought here,” Sarah says. “One is that we’re on pace to have record turnout and one is that we’re simply banking Election Day votes early this time.” On today’s episode, our podcast hosts also discuss the journalistic, political, legal implications of the New York Post’s Hunter Biden story before breaking down the key ingredients to a successful marriage. Show Notes: -Divided We Fall by David French, “Emails reveal how Hunter Biden tried to cash in big on behalf of family with Chinese firm” by Emma Jo-Morris Gabriel Fonrouge in the New York Post, Malwarebytes Inc. v. Enigma Software Group USA, LLC, “Why Only Amy Coney Barrett Gets to Have It All” by Katelyn Beaty in the New York Times. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Senate Judiciary Committee kicked off its confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett today with a predictably partisan spin. There were dog whistles from Republicans about religious tests and procedural complaints from Democrats in defense of the Affordable Care Act and against advancing Barrett’s nomination before November 3. But all things considered, the first day of the hearings was relatively uneventful, which may have come as a shock to those who watched the rather lively Brett Kavanaugh hearings in 2018. Our podcast hosts argue that boredom is a win for the Biden campaign’s Do No Harm strategy, as any sound bite attacking Barrett’s religion or character could depress the Democratic candidate’s current 10-point lead over Trump. David argues that if Democrats want to preserve Biden’s steady lead, they will do everything to avoid even “a single viral moment that puts them in the villain role” during these hearings. Check out our latest episode to hear David and Sarah discuss the Affordable Care Act’s lifespan, partisan judicial elections on the state level, and the Capitol Hill Baptist Church lawsuit. Show Notes: -FiveThirtyEight’s presidential polling average, and The Sweep: The Witching Hour. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sen. Kamala Harris and Vice President Mike Pence faced off Wednesday evening for their first and only vice presidential debate. But analysis of the candidates’ performance was disrupted by Trump’s announcement Thursday morning that he will not participate in the October 15 virtual debate against Joe Biden. Is the president bluffing? Or is he simply trying to hide his COVID-19 symptoms from the American public? The president has released a series of videos via Twitter this week in which he assures the American public of his recovery. But these videos are produced by the White House, meaning they can do multiple takes and edit out any evidence of the president’s lingering symptoms. “You can’t do that when in a debate,” Sarah points out, reminding us that any of the president’s coughs or bouts of heavy breathing would instantly go viral if caught on-screen. After some punditry about what this means for the Trump campaign’s reelection strategy, tune in for Sarah and David’s thoughts on the forthcoming Amy Coney Barrett Senate confirmation hearings, the strategic ambiguity of Biden’s court packing comments, and the criminal allegations against Texas attorney general Ken Paxton. Show Notes: -30 day free trial at The Dispatch and Divided We Fall by David French. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Supreme Court oral arguments have resumed via telephone and our podcast hosts are nerding out. The court kicked off today with an interesting denial of cert from the Supreme Court on a case out of Kentucky involving Kim Davis, the county clerk who refused to certify marriage licenses to same-sex couples in 2015 for religious reasons. “This petition provides a stark reminder of the consequences of Obergefell,” Justice Thomas wrote in a statement on Monday joined by Justice Alito. “By choosing to privilege a novel constitutional right over the religious liberty interests explicitly protected in the First Amendment, and by doing so undemocratically, the court has created a problem that only it can fix.” On today’s episode, our podcast hosts discuss the evolution of religious liberty and discrimination law, ongoing election disputes in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and the latest updates on the presidential campaign ad wars. Sarah and David wrap things up with a fun constitutional exercise by poking holes in the 25th Amendment and unpacking what happens when presidents die at different points in the cycle. Show Notes: -30 day free trial at The Dispatch, Divided We Fall by David French, Obergefell v. Hodges, Kim Davis v. David Ermold, “Applications and Implications of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment” by Akhil Reed Amar, “Is the Presidential Succession Law Constitutional?” by Akhil Reed Amar and Vikram David Amar. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How will Amy Coney Barrett shake things up on the bench if she is confirmed by the Senate before November 3? “Amy Coney Barrett will not be as revolutionary as the left fears or the right wishes,” Sarah argues, “Because no justice really is, because it’s one vote.” On today’s episode, David and Sarah address the hysteria surrounding her upcoming Senate confirmation battle while breaking down what a 6-3 conservative majority would mean for the future of Supreme Court jurisprudence. Sarah and David are also joined by Ilya Shapiro—director of the Robert A. Levy Center for Constitutional Studies at the Cato Institute and publisher of the Cato Supreme Court Review—for a conversation about the politics and history of Supreme Court nominations. To a certain degree, politics has always played a role in Supreme Court nominations. What makes this era unique? “What’s different is that you have divergent interpretive theories mapping onto partisan preference at a time when the parties are more ideologically sorted than they’ve been since at least the Civil War,” Shapiro argues. When it comes to divergent legal theories, “every decade provides a new escalation.” Tune in for a conversation about the future of First and Second Amendment jurisprudence, the left’s misconceptions surrounding Roe v. Wade, and the problems associated with public hearings for judicial nominations. Show Notes: -30 day free trial at The Dispatch, CBS post-debate poll, “Why Amy Coney Barrett Should Not Be On The Supreme Court” by Nathan Robinson in Current Affairs, Chevron doctrine, “Qualified and Absolute Immunity at Common Law” by Scott Keller and Jay Schweikert’s response in Cato. -Ilya Shapiro’s new book: Supreme Disorder: Judicial Nominations and the Politics of America’s Highest Court and Ted Kennedy tirade against Judge Robert Bork Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Several new polls were released over the weekend and Donald Trump is still trailing Joe Biden by roughly 7 to 10 points, depending where you look. Despite Biden’s steady lead, bad takes abound in the journalism world. “Here’s what happens when a race is not particularly close on the numbers,” Sarah explains. “People in the media try to make it more interesting by finding tea leaves and little nuggets that no one else has found and then blowing those up into their own narrative.” Sarah says it’s not always that the methodology of a particular poll is bad per se, “it’s that the causal relationship between the question and the result is assumed and not actually there.” For example, a series of polls from this weekend show that a majority of Americans oppose Trump’s decision to fill the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seat before November 3. But as Sarah points out, this is a dumb survey question for two reasons: 1) the answers break down along party lines when you look a little closer at the survey responses, and 2) it doesn’t ask survey respondents whether it will change their vote, which is the only thing that matters at this point. That leads us to the New York Times’ bombshell report on Trump’s tax returns and whether it will be of any consequence during this election. David and Sarah argue that loyal Trump supporters are simply too attached to the president at this point to care about any new scandals that emerge between now and November 3. Tune in to this episode for an update on presidential polling in battleground states, electoral litigation in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and a fun conversation about our podcast hosts’ favorite new documentaries. Show Notes: -New York Times/Siena College poll, Washington Post-ABC News poll, FiveThirtyEight polling averages in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. -The New York Times’ report on Trump’s tax returns, Purcell v. Gonzalez. -Republican party of Pennsylvania filed court documents over the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s Sept. 17 rulings. -David’s French Press: “It’s Time for ‘Pandemic Law’ to End”, “The Social Dilemma” Netflix documentary and “The Real Story of Paris Hilton.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A Louisville grand jury on Wednesday indicted one officer in connection with the March 13 police raid that took Breonna Taylor’s life. The grand jury declined to charge the two officers who fired directly at Breonna Taylor and her boyfriend that evening, instead only charging the third officer, who was outside and fired indiscriminately, with wanton endangerment. David explains the basic facts leading up to Taylor’s shooting, as well as the legality surrounding police raids and the right of self-defense under Kentucky law. “You begin to see where we’ve backslidden in our commitment to key constitutional liberties,” David explains, where “decades of bad Fourth Amendment jurisprudence has empowered violent tactics even when the stakes are low.” On today’s episode, David and Sarah also address how much the chief justice matters to the trajectory of the Supreme Court and the democratic prudence of voluntary judicial restraint. After a requisite foray into all things SCOTUS, our podcast hosts are joined by Federal Elections Commission Chairman Trey Trainor, who explains the ins and outs of election law, foreign election interference, and why the FEC is paralyzed right now. Trainor also explains how campaign finance laws like the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act have significantly weakened the national political parties while funneling money into the state parties in the process. “What’s happened is the smoke filled room has moved from Washington, D.C. to each of the 50 states.” Stick around for an inside scoop on the rise and fall of Kanye West’s presidential campaign. Show Notes: -30 day free trial at The Dispatch, FEC Chairman Trainor’s statement on the dangers of procedural dysfunction, “A Resignation in Time, that Saved Nine” by Josh Blackman in Reason, David’s French Press: “Supreme Court Precedent Killed Breonna Taylor.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on Friday, rocking the nation and setting the stage for a blistering Senate confirmation fight  should the Senate Judiciary Committee go through with the hearing process before the election. Today, our podcast hosts walk us through the history of SCOTUS vacancies, reflect on the legendary friendship between Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Justice Antonin Scalia, and offer some rank punditry about what this SCOTUS vacancy means for the future of our republic. The question on everyone’s mind is: What happens next? Will Senate Republicans go through with the Supreme Court nomination process? Should they? Sarah and David have some thoughts. What’s clear is that Trump will fight tooth and nail to get a nominee through as a last ditch effort to energize his base. “The more the Democrats threaten him, his brand is that he cannot give in to threats,” explains Sarah. “It’s the ultimate ‘owns the libs’ move to fill the Ginsburg seat and enrage the left.” But who will president Trump nominate? Judge Barbara Lagoa of the 11th Circuit  is in the running, but 7th Circuit judge Amy Coney Barrett’s cult of personality on the right—especially within the pro-life community—will likely give her the winning ticket. “If RBG is Michael Jordan,” Sarah explains, “ACB is Lebron James.” Stick around for a deep dive into the filibuster’s life expectancy, the possibility of a Democratic court packing scheme, and the likelihood of an Electoral College split this November. Show Notes: -David’s new book, Divided We Fall: America's Secession Threat and How to Restore Our Nation, Judge Jeffrey Sutton’s conversation with Justice Scalia about his friendship with RBG, and Sarah’s Sweep newsletter, “Yep, This Changes Everything,” and “Replacing Justice Ginsburg: Politics, Not Precedent” by Andrew McCarthy in National Review, the upcoming Dispatch Live with Sarah and David this Wednesday. -David’s piece on the battle over Ginsburg's seat and don’t forget to take advantage of our 30 day free trial of The Dispatch. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices