FICC Focus

Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright discuss the worst start on record for municipal bonds and explore the key differences of active vs passive management for tax-exempts. They are joined by David Hammer Head of Municipal Bond Portfolio Management at PIMCO.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Bloomberg News reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss recent developments. Topics include why we expect a new distressed debt surge may be upon us, views from the recent Milken conference, GWG Holdings' difficult bankruptcy, Revlon's turnaround and Talen's liquidity struggles.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist.Wong and Jersey discuss the Federal Reserve's May 4th meeting which Chairman Jerome Powell squashed the possibility of a 75 basis point interest rate increase in June, which left the markets thinking the meeting was hawkish. Jersey notes he did not hear it that way, while Wong notes she expects two more 50 basis point increases, followed by a string of 25 basis point hikes. Wong goes over the hawkish and dovish scenarios for the the policy rate, and discuss the risk of recession in 2024 after the Fed is finished raising rates. The BI US Rates meeting reaction can be found here; while the BE reaction is available here.

FICC Focus offers the latest market views on interest rates, corporate bonds, emerging market debt, commodities and currencies by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts.In our first FX Moment edition, host and BI Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and BI Chief Asia FX and Rates Strategist Stephen Chiu reflect on recent developments in the euro and the yuan.Our FX Strategists discuss the recent euro price action, with a focus on the lack of revival after the re-election of pro-European French President Emmanuel Macron, as the focus remains on overwhelmingly bearish international drivers. Stephen touches on the recent yuan underperformance and implications for our longer-term views on the Chinese currency.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI Associate Interest Rate Strategist Angelo Manolatos.Jersey previews his views for the May 4th FOMC meeting and discusses his view for future 50bps interest rate increases and the possible affect on the Treasury yield curve. The team's written preview can be found Fed Terminal-Rate Calibration Makes Pace of 2H Moves Uncertain. He also mentions the Treasury Department's refunding announcement expected a few hours prior to the Federal Reserve statement release. He expects coupon security auction sizes to stabilize after having been cut the past several quarters. Manolatos then discusses his view for the Bank of Canada and inflation expectations. Jersey also mentions the risk that inflation may remain above the Fed's target and what might occur if the central bank remains quite hawkish. Manolatos then discuss how quickly the Fed's Treasury Bill portfolio will runoff given current asset runoff plans.

In this Credit Chat edition, BI Senior Credit Analyst Robert Schiffman is joined by Bloomberg News' Olivia Raimonde, David Brooke and Rachel Butt to discuss what's driving this year's sharp drop in high yield debt issuance, the transition of investor demand toward leverage loans and private credit, and the rise in distressed credits.

In this month's EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, host and BI Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower is joined by the Founder and CIO of Emso Asset Management, Mark Franklin, and the co-deputy CIO, Jens Nystedt. The guests share their outlook for emerging markets in the wake of Fed tapering, Chinese deleveraging and the war in Ukraine.

Hosts, Eric Kazatsky and Amanda Albright, discuss algorithmic trading and increase in electronic tool usage in the municipal industry, with guests Marty Mannion and Matt Schrager from TD Securities.

In this inaugural Global Fixed Income Return Forecast edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by BI EM Strategist Damian Sassower.The two discuss the BI FICC Strategy team’s return forecasts for the next year, which appear in their note Global Creditors Tempted to Lean In After $5 Trillion in Losses. The research includes various potential portfolio allocations based on maximizing returns, sharpe ratios and other factors. Jersey and Sassower also discuss one of the risk higher yields will post to returns, but Jersey notes that the path matters, suggesting higher yields may be a near-term risk, while longer term an economic slowdown is more likely. Sassower reviews the effect currencies have on portfolio returns.

In this State of Distressed Debt edition, Bloomberg News reporter Eliza Ronalds-Hannon joins BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert to discuss recent developments in the distressed debt markets. Topics include where we are in the distressed debt credit cycle, Incora's new financing and debt exchange, Toys R Us litigation, AMC's foray into gold mining and Exela Technologies' array of capital structure maneuvers.