FICC Focus

Yelena Shulyatyeva, a Senior US economist at the Conference Board with over 20 years of experience, shares insightful predictions about the US economy. She expects a significant slowdown in consumer spending due to tariffs impacting inflation. Discussing the labor market, Yelena highlights hiring freezes and risks to jobs. She also examines the long-term productivity boost from AI, despite initial increases in inequality. The conversation covers potential future rate cuts and the Federal Reserve's independence amid evolving economic conditions.

Phoenix Kalen, the global head of emerging market research at Société Générale, shares her insights into the future of EM local rates and FX. She discusses the drivers behind 2025’s expected outperformance, highlighting inflows and favorable fundamentals. Kalen explores the dynamics of dollar strength and suggests that frontier markets, especially in LATAM and Turkey, present high-carry opportunities. Additionally, she analyzes specific country risks in the context of upcoming elections and evaluates the fiscal landscape for emerging markets.

David Eichhorn, CEO of NISA Investment Advisors, shares insights from his extensive career in fixed income and liability management. He emphasizes that not all excess returns equate to alpha, discussing the importance of proper benchmarking. Eichhorn dives into derivative overlays for liability hedging, the evolution of pension management, and the demand-driven challenges in long credit issuance. He also critiques market interventions and stresses the significance of providing liquidity while navigating structural market risks.

Winnie Cisar, Global Head of Strategy at CreditSights, John McClain, Global Co-Head of High Yield at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and Meghan Robson, Head of U.S. Credit Strategy at BNP Paribas delve into the high-yield market outlook. They discuss spread widening and consumer health, with Meghan highlighting K-shaped risks. John shares his sector preferences, favoring non-bank financials, while Winnie emphasizes media over leisure. The panel also explores the impact of private credit on public markets and shares can't-miss trades for 2026.

Meghan Graper, Global Head of Debt Capital Markets at Barclays, explains how yields and market technicals influence investment grade spreads. Amanda Lynam, from BlackRock, discusses the credit spread outlook amidst tight conditions and potential volatility. Krishna Memani, CIO at Lafayette College, shares contrarian views on macro risks and sector-specific opportunities. The panel debates AI capital expenditures and the challenges of financing ambitious plans while guarding against inflation and labor market risks.

In this discussion, John Sobolewski, Partner and Global Chair of Latham & Watkins' Liability Management Practice, shares his insights on the evolution of liability management since 2020. He critiques co-ops as potentially unnecessary and praises the benefits of competition among creditors. Sobolewski emphasizes the importance of early engagement in restructurings and the strategic use of multiple refinancing channels. He also explores jurisdictional dynamics and the impact of recent appellate rulings on deal design, pointing towards a more competitive future in distressed debt management.

In this engaging discussion, Daniel Pietrzak, a Partner and Global Head of Private Credit at KKR, sheds light on private credit markets and their resilience. He clarifies misconceptions around asset fire sales and emphasizes the significant growth potential in asset-based finance. The conversation delves into the impact of AI on lending decisions, as well as diversification strategies to mitigate risks. Pietrzak also explores international market dynamics and the evolving landscape of private investments, offering valuable insights into future opportunities.

Elina Theodorakopoulou, a Managing Director and EM portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management, discusses emerging markets' fixed income landscape. She highlights the impact of upcoming elections in various countries and the factors driving year-to-date performance including carry and resilient fundamentals. Theodorakopoulou also examines the state of central bank policies, the appeal of frontier markets, and the resurgence of local currency demand. Finally, she addresses medium-term concerns like inflation, geopolitical tensions, and upcoming U.S. midterms.

Richard Litton, President of Harbor Group International, dives into the current state of US commercial real estate. He discusses the anticipated stabilization in 2026 and the challenges of loan restructuring amid an affordability crunch. Litton emphasizes the significance of location in the office market recovery and identifies strong demand in the multifamily sector, especially in the Sunbelt. He also highlights the risks of economic softness and inflation while outlining opportunities in niche markets like student and senior housing.

In this insightful discussion, guests dive deep into global credit dynamics. Jason Lee highlights the decline in China's dollar bond market and India's potential for strong performance in 2026. Tim Tan unpacks the intricacies of Panda and Dim Sum bonds amid currency risks in Asia. Basel Al-Waqayan forecasts significant growth in the GCC's dollar issuance, emphasizing its rising prominence in emerging markets. Reto Bachmann explores the European structured credit landscape, detailing trends in CLOs and covered bonds. A comprehensive look at the evolving credit market awaits!