FICC Focus

Corporate fixed income looks attractive compared with equities, Abrdn’s Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income says. Mondillo joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss how private debt markets can offer opportunities and less volatility than some public credit areas. He also reviews Abrdn’s preferred sectors given its outlook for a recession beginning in early 2024, and the effects political policy and the Federal Reserve may have on fixed-income investing.

The banking crisis on both sides of the Atlantic led to significant repricing and revaluation in credit markets globally. But the rally following government and regulatory actions has recovered much of the lost ground.In the 10th episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist, and Noel Hebert, Chief US Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, discuss the aftermath of banking crisis and the rally, performance of banking bonds including AT1s and CDS indexes and the outlook for credit markets on both sides of the Atlantic including fundamentals, defaults, central bank actions, yield-curve impacts and return forecasts.

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stephen Chiu, Chief Asia FX and rates strategist, reflect on China's recovery story and on how some recent underwhelming monthly indicators reports may affect prospects into 2H as well as the currency market.Our analysts see the recent China economic news flow as a readjustment to more realistic growth expectations as opposed to evidence of a bleak outlook, with the recovery story intact for now. This implies that while the yuan is exposed near-term -- and that's not ideal for euro bulls either -- a more supportive narrative should return in 2H.

Questions have arisen around the growth of zero-days to expiry options, which now make up more than 40% of the overall volume of SPX options traded, and how this boom may be impacting the stock market. This edition of the All Options Considered podcast focuses on zero days to expiry options, or 0DTEs, and addresses the diversity of the investor base and what type of strategies are being traded. BI’s Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Arianne Adams, Senior Vice President, Head of Derivatives and Global Client Services at Cboe Global Markets.

Geopolitical risk is accelerating across Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, yet the region continues to outperform as end-of-cycle dynamics take hold. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence’s EMEA FX & Interest Rate Strategist Sergei Voloboev joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his outlook on local currency and debt markets in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Voloboev also shares his views on Turkey’s general elections, Israel’s proposed judicial overhaul and South Africa’s energy crisis.

Lisa Hornby, Schroder Investment Management’s Head of Multi-Sector Fixed Income, says mortgages and shorter-term Treasury securities are more attractive than corporates given the firm’s outlook for the economy. Hornby joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey on this episode of the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Hornby discusses why she thinks corporate credit may be challenged in some cases, yet says that broadly the risks are name-specific, rather than being confined to certain sectors. In the Interest Rate Intro segment, US Rates Strategy Associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey how a debt-ceiling deal could affect the Treasury General Account, along with bank reserves and other Federal Reserve liabilities.

Despite positive year-to-date performance, navigating the heightened volatility in the rates market and declining new issue sales have been just some of the challenges investors have had to contend with this year. Though some have chosen to hide out in high-yield cash equivalents such as money-market products, opportunities exist if cloudy valuations can be navigated. Belle Haven Investments’ CEO and CIO Matt Dalton and Director of Research Dora Lee join Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano on this Masters of the Muniverse podcast episode to share their muni-market perspective.

The market interpreting comments following the Bank of England’s 25-bp rate increase at the May policy meeting doesn’t square with the view of Bloomberg Intelligence European Interest Rate Strategist Huw Worthington. On this Macro Matter’s edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Worthington suggests that the UK’s rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, while the European Central Bank could raise somewhat further. He notes that quantitative tightening via asset runoff by the ECB is just beginning at full force. Recent credit-rating actions on France might have implications for reviews of Italy and could affect markets.BI US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey also speaks with Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics Anna Wong about recent inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy actions last week. She discusses her view of the economy and inflation — highlighting the risk that inflation doesn’t fall aggressively — and the Fed remaining on hold for longer than the market is pricing.

Market downswings and rallies and concern about the next crisis have been major preoccupations over the past two years. A significant credit-market innovation helping to address this was introduced in this period and it's coming to the forefront now -- credit index futures.In the ninth episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist and Davide Masi, Fixed Income ETD Product Design at Eurex, discuss the need for credit index futures, the features of the Investment Grade (LXY) and High Yield (AHW) futures contracts along with their underlying benchmarks, their merits for hedging and risk-taking and their potential in terms of trading costs and volume.

“I worry less about liquidity risk because we’re generally assuming there isn’t liquidity there. I worry more about recovery risk. If something goes wrong in a small-cap stack…a lot of the advisory, workout and bankruptcy costs are much more onerous in a smaller-cap stack,” Corbin Capital’s Chief Investment Officer Craig Bergstrom says on this month’s State of Distressed edition of the FICC Focus Podcast.In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence global credit strategy head Noel Hebert and distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel discuss how the credit markets are locked in to their seasonal trends, and if continued, may tumble this summer. Then, they have an in-depth feature interview with Bergstrom on the current credit opportunity set, private credit and evaluating credit funds (7:39). Bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku joins the podcast for a roundtable discussion of distressed topics, including Bed Bath & Beyond, National CineMedia, Johnson & Johnson’s second foray in Chapter 11 and Exela Technologies (1:06:20).