FICC Focus

Bloomberg Intelligence's Ira Jersey and Huw Worthington discuss the impact of global elections on bond markets. They delve into US congressional partisanship, French and UK elections' volatility, and the implications of the US Presidential election on trade and geopolitics.

Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg's chief G-10 FX strategist, and Nathan Dean discuss US politics' impact on the dollar before the Nov. 5 elections. They explore effects of a second Trump term on fiscal and monetary policies. The podcast dives into potential impacts of the upcoming election on the dollar, Fed independence, and market assets.

US Supreme Court Justice Brett M Kavanaugh would have a “great career as a restructuring professional,” according to University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill law professor Melissa B. Jacoby, as his Purdue Pharma 54-page dissent mirrored many bankruptcy lawyers’ skepticism regarding the US trustee’s arguments. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s State of Distressed Debt podcast, part of the FICC Focus series, BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku interviews Jacoby, author of the new book Unjust Debts, on the impact of the Supreme Court’s Purdue decision on mass tort bankruptcies, including lingering questions about the future significance of consensual third-party releases (6:45). Earlier in the podcast, BI’s Phil Brendel and Noel Hebert discuss how the corporate credit market appears immune to geopolitical risks that don’t alter rate expectations. This episode concludes with all three discussing the latest developments in bankruptcy courts and distressed situations, including Incora, Gol Airlines, Mallinckrodt and Diamond Sports (50:15).

A lot has changed in the world of munis over the past 40 years, but don’t take our word for it. Joining hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamiranoon the June edition of Masters of the Muniverse is Joe Mysak of Bloomberg News, retiring this month after 40-plus years of covering public finance. In this month’s episode, we discuss Joe’s storied career at Bloomberg, how the muni marke thas changed and what to expect for the second half of the year. To help us bid him farewell, we’re also joined by a few special guests.

Watching the household survey portion of the Employment Situation report may be a better indicator of the economy, Stuart Paul of Bloomberg Economics says on this edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus Podcast. Paul joins host Ira Jersey, BI chief US interest rate strategist, to discuss recent economic data trends, the disconnect between surveys and hard data, upcoming data and the BE outlook for monetary policy. Paul says he believes US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may be somewhat dovish at the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, and could use the Jackson Hole symposium to signal a September interest rate cut.

Penny Foley, MD of EM at TCW, and Damian Sassower discuss EM carry, election risks, foreign positioning, growth dynamics, and central-bank policies in the changing EM landscape. They explore EM sovereign stories, idiosyncratic carry strategies in Asia, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, EM corporates, and recent election outcomes in South Africa and Mexico.

Diversification, lower default rates and elevated yields are just a few of the features of today’s collateralized loan obligation (CLO) landscape, says Senior Managing Director and Head of Structured Credit at Pretium Jerry Ouderkirk. He joins Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to discuss the asset class’ current state and its evolution over nearly two decades. The dialog touches on what backdrops drive primary vs. secondary market allocations, default expectations, loan and CLO dynamics, among other topics.

Matt Doheny, founder of North Country Capital and expert in turnaround strategies, shares insights on high-profile bankruptcies like Yellow Corp and FTX. He discusses the complexities of restructuring, detailing the fierce competition between lenders and the unique auction process at Yellow. Cohost Nagisa Balluku adds her expertise on the latest bankruptcy developments, including issues surrounding Red Lobster and WeWork. Their engaging conversation uncovers the intricacies of distressed debt and the evolving landscape of crisis management.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the Fed are conflicted on economic data, says Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Marco Strategy Matt Hornbach in this edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus Podcast. Hornbach joins host and BI Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss the G3+ central bank, currency and interest-rate outlook. Though the totality of recent US economic data has been very confusing, Hornbach thinks a clear trend will soon emerge. The Morgan Stanley base case is for the Fed to start cutting rates in September and do so at each meeting until mid-2025 before stopping. Such an outcome would cause the 10-year Treasury to rally to 3.75%, he said.

Credit markets had a strong nine months of rally, particularly in spreads, although there were yield blips. As the environment changes with rate cuts, led by the ECB, are credit spreads too tight, despite low defaults? Is the rally justified on expected rate cuts for the rest of 2024? In this episode of our Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Chief European Credit Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Axel Potthof, Head of High Yield at Fisch Asset Management, discuss the state of credit after the first ECB cut and the long rally.They discuss relative value across junk, high grade and loans, fund flows, defaults, rate cuts and yield-curve views in detail. They also address CLOs and their support for loans, while on private credit, they ask if it is taking anything away from public markets.