Midrats

What do the numbers tell us about the USN's expected fleet during the rest of what we call the Terrible 20s?We are going to spend an hour digging in to that with returning guest Matthew Hipple, active duty Surface Warfare Officer & former president of the Center for International Maritime Security.As a starting point for our conversation we will reference his May 9th article over at CIMSEC, "20 Years of Naval Trends Guarantee a FY23 Shipbuilding Plan Failure.""The FY23 Shipbuilding Plan proposes a 10-year drop in fleet numbers that deviates in spirit from every shipbuilding plan since 2012. During this dangerous decade, the FY23 Shipbuilding Plan returns the fleet to a size that precipitated the period of panic that inspired Congress to enshrine the 355-ship goal into law (Figure 2). The FY23 Long Range Shipbuilding Plan will miss the defunct, minimum goal of 300 ships by another decade, and is less likely to meet the Navy’s legal and operational 355-ship requirement."

Since the March 1996 humiliation in the waters around Taiwan handed to the People’s Republic of China by the US Navy’s world-dominating Carrier Battle Groups – as they were then known – China and her armed forces started a long-term, disciplined effort to ensure that a point in the not so distant future, their part of The Pacific west of Wake would no longer be considered and American lake.With a little over a quarter century passed, has China successfully closed the gap?Come join us for the full hour this Sunday for a deep dive in to the subject with our guests Gerry Doyle and Blake Herzinger as we discuss their recent book, Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century (Asia@War).

For over 11-years, once a year or so today’s guest has joined us on Midrats to discuss the latest military and national security developments with Russia.With the war waging in Ukraine and in the process of transitioning to a new phase, there couldn’t be a better time to hear from Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg who will be with us for the full hour in a wide ranging discussion about the buildup to war, and the important takeaways so far.Dmitry is an expert on security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. His recent research topics include decision-making processes in the senior Russian leadership, Russian naval strategy in the Pacific and the Black Sea, and Russian maritime defense doctrine.He is author of "Nationalism for the Masses: Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation" (Cambridge University Press, 2003), and has been published in journals such as World Politics and Post-Soviet Affairs. In addition to his role at CNA, he currently serves as editor of Problems of Post-Communism and is an Associate of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University. From 2009 to 2016, he edited the journal Russian Politics and Law.He previously served as Executive Director of the Association for Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies (ASEEES). He received a B.A. in international relations from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University. He blogs on issues related to the Russian military at Russian Military Reform. He is a native Russian speaker.

If it's April, it's time for a return visit by Ross Kennedy to Midrats!A little under a year ago, we had Ross on to discuss the impact of COVID and related structural issues to the global supply chain. A year later, we find conditions have not just remained, but with war in Ukraine and a new COVID variant working its way through coastal China, in many ways the global trade in essential items has turned for the worst.If you are worried about the cost and availability of fuel, food, and everyday items you've spent the last decade assuming were always going to be there at a price you're happy with, then you need to join us from 2-3pm Eastern this Sunday.Ross is a U.S.-based logistics and supply chain expert with more than fifteen years in international transportation, procurement, and analysis. His unique blend of operations, sales, and strategic planning allows him to provide creative, agile solutions for his public- and private-sector clientele.

With the Russo-Ukrainian War in its 3rd week, everyone is starting to see a new normal emerging in Europe, our alliances, and global posture. What are the assumptions time has left behind, what concepts are playing out well, and what surprises at sea and ashore have been a surprise?What will the next phase look like?This Sunday from 5-6pm Eastern EagleOne and Sal are bringing back the melee format with an eye on Ukraine. Open topic, open phones, green range ... bearings free.

While the world's eyes are focused on Russia and Ukraine - and probably will for the foreseeable future - the People's Republic of China is not standing still. How can China use this moment to her advantage? What possible lessons can China take away from the Ukraine conflict so far, and perhaps more importantly, how should it impact how we and our allies look at China?Returning to Midrats to discuss these and related questions this Sunday will be our guest Dean Cheng.Dean is the Senior Research Fellow for Chinese political and security affairs at the Asia Studies Center of The Heritage Foundation. He specializes in Chinese military and foreign policy, and has written extensively on Chinese military doctrine, technological implications of its space program, and “dual use” issues associated with China’s industrial and scientific infrastructure. He is the author of “Cyber Dragon: Inside China's Information Warfare and Cyber Operations.”Before joining The Heritage Foundation, he was a senior analyst with the Center for Naval Analyses, a federally funded research and development center, and a senior analyst with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC, now Leidos), the Fortune 500 specialist in defense and homeland security. He has testified before Congress, spoken at the (American) National Defense University, US Air Force Academy, and the National Space Symposium, and been published in the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post.

From the Sea of Azov to the Danube Delta, the maritime component of the Russian invasion of Ukraine's is bringing to the front universal constants; treaties, neutral shipping, amphibious operations, blockades, choke points, sea lines of communication, and an expanded environment where conflict can expand in unexpected ways.While much of the focus has been ashore, significant developments - and lessons - can be found in the developments in the Black Sea. That will be the focus on today's Midrats with a panel discussion with Claude Berube, Chris Cavas, and Sal Mercogliano.Dr Claude Berube has taught at the US Naval Academy since 2005 and has worked for two US Senators. He is a Commander in the Navy Reserve. His latest book is “On Wide Seas: The US Navy in the Jacksonian Era” and his third novel, “The Philippine Pact” will be released this fall.Chris Cavas is a long-time naval journalist who has reported on navies and maritime issues in the United States and around the world. He’s also the co-host of the weekly CavasShips podcast focusing on naval matters.Dr. Sal Mercogliano is a Maritime Historian at Campbell University. A former merchant mariner and Host of the What's Going On With Shipping YouTube Channel.

As described on Amazon, "Eight CIA officers are dropped into the mountains of northern Afghanistan on October 17, 2001. They are Team Alpha, an eclectic band of linguists, tribal experts, and elite warriors: the first Americans to operate inside Taliban territory. Their covert mission is to track down Al- Qaeda and stop the terrorists from infiltrating the United States again."Most may be familiar with one member of that team, Mike Spann. This Sunday we will spend the hour talking about that Team, the first few months of the Afghanistan conflict, and what the war and its future looked like early on as described in the recent book, First Casualty: The Untold Story of the CIA Mission to Avenge 9/11.The author Toby Harnden will be with us for the full hour to discuss the book and the story it tells.Toby is an author, journalist, and a winner of the Orwell Prize for Books. A former foreign correspondent for the Sunday Times of London and the Daily Telegraph who reported from thirty-three countries, he specializes in terrorism and war. Born in Portsmouth, England, Harnden was imprisoned in Zimbabwe, prosecuted in Britain for protecting confidential sources, and vindicated by a $23 million public inquiry in Ireland. A dual British and US citizen, he spent a decade as a Royal Navy officer before becoming a journalist. He holds a First Class degree in modern history from Oxford and is the author of Bandit Country: The IRA & South Armagh and Dead Men Risen: An Epic Story of War and Heroism in Afghanistan. Previously based in London, Belfast, Jerusalem, Baghdad, and Washington, DC, he lives in Virginia.

Decades of peace and relative stability in Europe is suddenly shattered as armies start to mobilize on a scale not seen since WWII.No, not 2022...but 1987. What is there to learn for today from what could have happened at the end of the Cold War?In addition to the above teaser questions, this Sunday from 5-6pm Eastern with our guest Michael Cee we will dive in to the research, tools, wargaming, and art of creating alternative historical fiction about what may have happened with the wrong people in the wrong positions of power at the wrong time in the late 1980s.Michael is the creator and author of World War III 1987, a blog that takes a detailed look at a hypothetical Third World War set in 1987, as well as several topics related to the NATO-Warsaw Pact military balance in the later years of the Cold War. He is also the author of a second blog, Today’s Defense and International Relations Topics that’s centered on contemporary geopolitical and defense issues and news. He is a 44-year-old former Air Force officer who has also spent time in government service and as a senior member of a research institute. He has earned an MSFS from the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, as well as an MPA and PhD in Politics from Princeton University. Over the summer of 2019, Michael signed a two-book deal with a New York City publishing house. At present he is making final edits on his first novel, which is also based on a hypothetical global conflict set in 1987.

We live in an era where in the blink of an eye we've gone from flip-phones to smart phones with the capabilities of both supercomputers a generation ago and entire movie studios in your back pocket. In that same time frame, what happened to the promised integration and operational utilization of aircraft carrier based drones - or Unmanned Aircraft Systems, or whatever we are calling them this week?This Sunday we are going to dive deep in to the topic and problem with our guests Trevor Phillips-Levine, Noah Spataro, and Andrew Tenbusch.We will use as the starting point for our conversation their recent article in War on the Rocks, "Winged Luddites: Aviators are the Biggest Threat to Carrier Aviation."