Midrats

Having trouble keeping up with the world around you? Head swirling with too much?You’re not alone. Good news…we’ll get you all caught up and set right.Returning to the Midrats Podcast is Blake Herzinger.Blake Herzinger is Microsoft’s Defense and National Security Policy Lead for Asia. Previously, he led policy strategy and advocacy at Citi across North and South Asia and Australia, advised senior leaders on geopolitical and regulatory trends at Indo-Pacific Advisors, and held roles at Twitter and Booz Allen Hamilton focused on defense policy, risk, and market strategy. He has been affiliated with think tanks including the American Enterprise Institute and the US Studies Centre in Sydney. From 2008 to 2017, Blake served as an active-duty officer in the U.S. Navy as an intelligence officer; he continues to serve in the U.S. Navy Reserve. He holds an M.A. in Strategic Studies from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore) and a B.A. in Political Science from Brigham Young University. He speaks English and Bulgarian. In this episode:The significance of Japan increasing its defense expenditure to 2% of GDP and regional implicationsJapan’s soft power growth through development aid and maritime security contributionsThe increasing security cooperation between Japan, Australia, South Korea, and regional partnersHow regional maritime choke points affect security and trade resilienceThe digital revolution in shipbuilding and defense modernization effortsThe strategic importance of AUKUS and integrated supply chains for alliance strengthInsights into Singapore’s strategic posture and its partnerships in Southeast AsiaChallenges in defense procurement, cyber security, and digital infrastructure resilienceThe shifting dynamics of global energy supply and regional economic interestsTimestamps:00:00 - Welcome and introduction to the regional security context02:05 - Blake Herzinger’s role and current focus in Asia02:33 - Japan’s defense spending increase and regional security implications03:56 - Japan’s relationships with neighbors and regional development efforts04:50 - Japan’s soft power in Southeast Asia and maritime security contributions05:43 - Japan’s defense export initiatives and security cooperation07:43 - Personal experiences with Japan-U.S. naval exercises and alliance benefits08:13 - Japan’s assertiveness regarding Taiwan and regional security alignments08:46 - Building security networks among U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific09:36 - The evolution of regional defense partnerships and trilateral arrangements10:01 - Historical context of Pacific conflicts and current opportunities for cooperation11:20 - The non-expansionist nature of current regional disputes and interests overlap12:15 - The growing economic and security ties around Southeast Asia13:26 - Japan’s defense uplift post-Shangri-La Dialogue and its regional impact14:01 - Ukraine’s influence on Japan and regional resilience initiatives15:04 - Cyber warfare, critical infrastructure, and future regional security challenges16:17 - Maritime choke points’ strategic importance and regional defense planning17:41 - U.S. and regional shipbuilding efforts, technological modernization18:48 - Evolving international relationships beyond traditional hubs20:01 - The growing defense collaborations across Asia and beyond21:35 - The importance of digital infrastructure and cyber security in defense22:53 - The challenge of modernizing shipbuilding through data and digital supply chains24:07 - Regional energy security, oil dependencies, and diversifying supplies26:21 - Australia’s energy policies and regional resilience strategies29:33 - The potential of nuclear energy and green energy initiatives in Asia31:18 - The strategic significance of AUKUS and regional perceptions36:54 - Modernizing defense logistics, munition production, and industrial cooperation38:21 - Overcoming bureaucratic hurdles in defense modernization and tech sharing40:30 - The ongoing efforts to evolve U.S. defense capabilities and partnership standards43:18 - Australian and Japanese shipbuilding cooperation and regional interoperability46:49 - Singapore’s strategic posture, partnerships, and regional stability efforts51:24 - Final thoughts: emerging issues and the importance of optimism in security54:12 - Blake’s recent publications, ongoing initiatives, and staying connectedResources & Links:Managing the Unbreakable Alliance: Agreements, Core Instruments, and Related Documents, by Blake HerzingerJapan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)As the US Navy just demonstrated, war at sea is global, John Andrews at ASPIMobilize: How to Reboot the American Industrial Base and Stop World War III, Shyam Sankar and Madeline Hart

After a series of great guests, the Midrats Podcast returns this week with the ever popular, “Free-for-All” format!It’s just Mark and me for the full hour as we discuss the latest developments from the Iranian conflict and elsewhere.Summary Sal and Mark discuss the meticulous planning behind military operations, the nuances of Iran’s strategic posture, and the broader implications for global security. Whether you’re a defense enthusiast or a security professional, this discussion sheds light on the complexity and professionalism inherent in modern military planning.In this episode:The myth of spontaneous military actions and the importance of detailed operational planningDecades of strategic intelligence and military preparation on IranThe layered process of deliberate planning, from high-level directives to tactical executionThe significance of coalition operations, particularly with Israel, and target division strategiesHow the U.S. and allies use phased operations to achieve specific objectives and measure successThe potential long-term impacts of current operations on Iran’s regime and regional stabilityThe role of misinformation and the importance of diversified information sources in understanding geopolitical eventsInsights on missile defense systems, threats in the Strait of Hormuz, and implications for Europe and AsiaReflections on Iranian capabilities, internal resistance, and future regional conflictsTimestamps:00:00 - Introduction and episode overview00:42 - The importance of deliberate military planning02:24 - Iran’s decades-long strategic preparation03:46 - Hierarchical planning from national directives to tactical execution05:05 - Goals of the recent operations and response to higher command06:57 - The reality of complex war plans, including branch and serial strategies08:15 - Collaboration with Israel and target sharing09:29 - Long-term planning and crisis adaptation10:55 - Asset management and tactical operational adjustments12:30 - The process of assessing mission success and defining end states15:39 - Comparative military experience of the U.S. and Israel17:02 - Duration and exit strategies for military operations18:17 - How success is measured and operational end points19:38 - Risks of mission creep and regime stability post-operation21:11 - Insights from military leadership on regime resilience22:58 - Impacts of leadership losses and succession in Iran24:44 - Potential for regime radicalization and future conflicts27:40 - Clarification on key geographic targets in the Strait of Hormuz30:01 - Ballistic missile threats to Europe and the U.S.33:07 - Iranian missile development and regional motivations36:15 - Defense systems in Europe and political considerations43:03 - China’s position regarding tanker escort and regional interests50:38 - Focus on geographic hotspots and missile threats near Iran52:29 - Israeli agility and sensor capabilities in targeting57:41 - Internal resistance within Iran and revolution prospects59:34 - Strategic patience and operational objectives60:10 - Teaser for next week’s guest: Blake HerzingerShow Links:Jim Mattis and Ryan Holiday | Full Episode 3.20.26 | Firing Line with Margaret Hoover | PBSThe Rise of the Punitive Expedition & the Repudiation of the Era of Errors, 02 March 2026Iran Strategy and Planning Resources

Here we find ourselves approaching the fifth spring of the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022.As the rest of the world’s geopolitical landscape changes dramatically, Russia’s “friend group” shrinks, and Ukraine’s friends grow weary and distracted, where is the war moving and where could we expect Russia to adjust for another year of conflict?Returning to Midrats again to discuss this and related issues is Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg, a Senior Research Scientist in the Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs division of CNA, where he has worked since 2000.Dr. Gorenburg is an associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and previously served as Executive Director of the American Association of the Advancement of Slavic Studies (AAASS). His research interests include security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. Dr. Gorenburg is author of Nationalism for the Masses: Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation (Cambridge University Press, 2003), and has been published in journals such as World Politics and Post-Soviet Affairs. He currently serves as editor of Problems of Post-Communism and was also editor of Russian Politics and Law from 2009 to 2016. Dr. Gorenburg received a B.A. in international relations from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University.SummaryIn this episode, we explore the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, marking its fifth spring, and analyze Russia’s current military strategy, technological dependencies, economic adjustments, and geopolitical efforts. Our expert guest, Dr. Dmitry Gorenberg, a senior research scientist at CNA, provides insights into Russia’s military tactics, technological challenges, and international alliances, painting a comprehensive picture of a pivotal moment in the conflict.Key Topics:The significance of the fifth spring of the Russia-Ukraine war and its implicationsThe role and impact of Starlink and Russian anti-satellite capabilitiesRussian military tactics: steady grinding, troop mobilization, and drone warfareThe Russian psyche regarding prolonged conflict and public sentimentThe influence of repression and government control on information disseminationEconomic resilience: sanctions, oil prices, and support from BRICS nationsRussia’s strategic partnerships: Venezuela, Iran, China, and othersThe role of sabotaging NATO and Western countries to weaken collective defenseInformation warfare: Russian propaganda, disinformation, and influence operationsTechnological dependencies: reliance on US-based satellite systems and Chinese componentsRussian military leadership: promotions, strategic updates, and future outlooksThe geopolitics of energy, with focus on shadow fleets and the Straits of HormuzTimestamps:00:00 - Introduction and overview of Russia’s fifth spring in the Ukraine conflict02:09 - The impact of cutting off Starlink and communication disruptions on the front lines04:20 - Russian troop mobilization strategies and tactics05:39 - External foreign fighters: North Koreans, North Africans, and recruitment trends08:33 - Russian public perception and cultural narrative about the war’s longevity09:29 - The influence of repression, propaganda, and societal attitudes in Russia12:46 - Government control of communications, internet censorship, and surveillance16:15 - Russia’s dependence on US satellite systems and Chinese technology17:36 - Russia’s technological gap: Satellites, GPS, and domestically developed systems19:10 - Economic impacts: sanctions, oil prices, and Russia’s financial resilience 21:25 - Russia’s efforts with BRICS and global network of allies to bypass sanctions23:24 - The role of Venezuela, Iran, and other countries in Russia’s geopolitical web27:06 - Russia’s sabotage operations against NATO and Western nations30:13 - Political influence campaigns, disinformation, and influence operations32:09 - Reflection on Cold War-era propaganda and current information strategies33:38 - The use of media, social platforms, and online influence in shaping narratives37:40 - Historical perspective on propaganda, public manipulation, and media control39:51 - Modern military technology, including missile attacks and Ukraine’s defense42:11 - The evolving missile landscape, targeting energy infrastructure and battlefield logistics44:46 - Russia’s advanced satellite capabilities: intercepting and maneuvering satellites46:47 - External support for Russia: North Korean, Iranian weapons, and China’s role48:00 - Chinese technology and components aiding Russia’s military industry50:17 - Russia’s long-term concerns about China’s rising dominance52:24 - Russia’s diplomatic and military support networks in Latin America and beyond54:00 - Shadow tanker ships, oil sanctions, and economic strategies related to energy55:47 - The geopolitical implications of oil sales, shadow fleets, and global markets57:06 - Russia’s support to Iran: targeting capabilities and strategic assistance58:21 - Ukraine’s recent military developments and regional connections60:59 - Ukraine’s defense industrial capacity and regional alliances62:24 - Russia’s outreach and support to Middle Eastern countries; strategic intentions64:39 - Future outlook: military promotions, strategic planning, and the war’s trajectoryResources & Links:CNA Russia StudiesStarlink by SpaceXRT (Russia Today)RAND Report on Russian SatellitesUS Sanctions and Oil Market DataRussia’s Shadow Fleet

The first quarter of 2026 still has three weeks to go, but the assumptions and friend group of the People’s Republic of China has changed dramatically.Recent changes in the assumptions concerning Venezuela, Iran, Japan, and other nations will impact the national security concerns of the West’s greatest challenger on the world stage.Returning to the Midrats Podcast today from 5-6 PM Eastern to discuss will be Dean Cheng.Dean is a Non-resident Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies and Non-resident Fellow, George Washington University Space Policy Institute.He recently retired after 14 years with the Heritage Foundation, where he was a senior research fellow on Chinese political and security affairs, and wrote on various aspects of Chinese foreign and defense policy.Prior to joining the Heritage Foundation, he was a senior analyst with the China Studies Division (previously, Project Asia) at CNA from 2001-2009. Before joining CNA, he was a senior analyst with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) from 1996-2001. From 1993-1995, he was an analyst with the US Congress’ Office of Technology Assessment in the International Security and Space Division, where he studied the Chinese defense industrial complex.He is the author of the book Cyber Dragon: Inside China’s Information Warfare and Cyber Operations (NY: Praeger Publishing, 2016), as well as a number of papers and book chapters examining various aspects of Chinese security affairs.Show LinksDean Cheng’s article on Chinese military purgesAn Army at Dawn, by Rick AtkinsonChina’s HQ‑9B Defense System Under ScrutinySummaryIn this episode, Dean Cheng discusses China’s strategic posture, military reforms, cyber capabilities, and the implications of recent global events on China’s long-term plans. We explore China’s economic outlook, military modernization, regional influence, and the impact of purges within the PLA.Chapters00:00: Introduction and Context of Global Tensions03:01: China’s Strategic Position and Five-Year Plan07:07: Defense Spending and Global Security Concerns10:05: China’s Vulnerabilities and Energy Security11:44: Military Purges and Leadership Control18:22: Military Readiness and Combat Experience23:27: Testing Chinese Military Equipment in Conflicts28:45: Global Arms Market and Strategic Alliances30:24: Military Culture and Learning from Underperformance32:57: Training and Realistic Combat Experience35:40: Cyber Warfare and Electronic Warfare Concerns38:05: Regional Conflicts and China’s Diplomatic Stance40:46: China’s Image and Political Warfare44:48: Shifts in Global Alliances and Economic Influence47:34: The Importance of Economic Engagement50:25: China’s Diplomatic Approach to Neighbors54:16: Cyber Threats and Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

A rapid-fire review of Operation Epic Fury and the U.S. assets used in the strike. They dissect targets like C2 nodes, air defenses, and naval forces. The conversation moves to political aims in Iran, risks of escalation, and logistics shortfalls. They also cover allied reactions, homeland threat concerns, misinformation risks, and a light-hearted tech anecdote about an Israeli bomb-shelter dating app.

Dr. Robert Farley, security and diplomacy scholar and author of The Battleship Book, breaks down the modern battleship debate. He explores doctrine and survivability questions, compares concentrated firepower to distributed lethality, and weighs nuclear, railgun, and propulsion tradeoffs. The conversation also covers political risks, shipbuilding impacts, and how large hulls reshape force structure.

Need a moment to recover from Valentine’s Day? Of course you do!ShowlinksTruxtun-Supply CollisionSecretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security ConferenceMaritime Action PlanSummaryIn this episode of Midrats, Sal and Mark discuss various topics related to national security, starting off with the Truxton-Supply collision. They also delve into Secretary Rubio’s speech regarding NATO relations, the decline of the international order, and the challenges posed by China’s global influence. Additionally, they explore the Maritime Action Plan and its significance for the future of shipbuilding and economic policy in the U.S.Chapters00:00: Introduction02:10: The Truxtun-Supply Collision11:55: Operational Tempo and Navy Readiness17:24: Secretary Rubio’s Speech and NATO Relations27:18: The Decline of the International Order37:03: China’s Global Influence and Fishing Practices45:51: Maritime Action Plan and Economic Policy57:59: Strategic Capabilities and Future of Shipbuilding

Show LinksThe Congress, the Golden Fleet, and the Shipbuilding Industrial Base in 2026SummaryIn this episode of Midrats, Sal and Mark engage with Eric Labs, a senior analyst at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), to discuss the complexities of shipbuilding costs, the role of the CBO in providing independent estimates, and the challenges faced by the U.S. Navy in maintaining and expanding its fleet. Eric shares insights on the differences between CBO and Navy cost estimates, the impact of maintenance on overall ship costs, and the importance of a skilled labor force in shipbuilding. The conversation also touches on the historical context of shipbuilding budgets, congressional appropriations, and the future of naval forces in the face of evolving defense needs.Dr. Eric Labs is Senior Analyst for Naval Forces and Weapons at the Congressional Budget Office in Washington, D.C. He specializes in issues related to the procurement, budgeting, and sizing of the forces for the Department of the Navy. He received his doctorate in political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and graduated from Tufts University, summa cum laude, in 1988. He has worked for the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis in Cambridge, Massachusetts and, from 1994 to 1995, as a Visiting Scholar at the Center for International Security Studies at the University of Maryland. Dr. Labs has been with the Congressional Budget Office since 1995. Chapters00:00: Introduction to the CBO and Eric Labs03:01: Understanding the Role of the CBO06:01: Cost Estimation Approaches in Shipbuilding08:54: Historical Context of CBO Estimates vs Navy Estimates12:04: Challenges in Shipbuilding Cost Estimates15:09: The Impact of Maintenance on Ship Costs18:00: Congressional Budgeting and Shipbuilding Appropriations20:48: Labor Force Challenges in Shipbuilding23:58: Future of the U.S. Navy Fleet and Shipbuilding27:05: Conclusion and Future Considerations

They dig into the newly released National Defense Strategy and what its China focus means for U.S. military policy. European burden sharing, NATO readiness, and Canada’s political ties to China get sharp attention. Logistics, industrial mobilization, and naval force design debates drive much of the conversation.

Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan, Arctic geopolitics expert and former Royal Australian Navy Head of Research. She unpacks why Greenland keeps grabbing attention. They cover historic US bids for Greenland, treaty and NATO implications, Greenlandic independence paths, and how geography links Arctic security to Indo‑Pacific politics. Practical outcomes and financing options for sovereignty are also debated.