Competent Man Podcast

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Don Durrett, author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss the current state of the metals and mining markets, with a particular focus on gold and silver. Don emphasizes his strategy of buying during market dips, which he has applied successfully in recent months. He notes that gold experienced a significant correction, dropping from $5,600 to around $4,100, and has since rebounded to nearly $4,600. Durrett attributed this volatility to the geopolitical tensions and the U.S. economy’s struggles, including high debt levels and inflation. Durrett expresses his belief that the U.S. economy is on a declining trajectory, heavily reliant on foreign investment, and heading towards a recession. He predicts that gold and silver prices will rise significantly due to the U.S. government’s potential inability to service its debt and the fragility of the bond market. He set a target of $7,000 for gold and $200 for silver within the next 24 to 36 months, citing the unsustainable debt levels and economic management practices as key drivers. Don also touches on the potential impacts of an energy crisis, noting that while higher oil prices pose risks to gold mining operations, the industry has margins that can withstand increases up to a certain point. He also discusses the potential for a digital currency reset, which could devalue the U.S. dollar and lead to a quasi-default on U.S. debt. Durrett highlights the importance of monitoring the geopolitical situation, particularly the tensions in the Middle East, which could impact oil prices and global economies. He expressed pessimism about the likelihood of a swift resolution to the conflicts and the potential for Iran to gain leverage over oil prices. Despite these challenges, Durrett remains bullish on gold and silver, expecting new all-time highs by the end of June and viewing any corrections as buying opportunities. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:32 – Buying the Dip Strategy00:02:32 – Analyzing Recent Gold Dip00:05:52 – Gold and Silver Targets00:09:11 – US Economy Oil Resilience00:15:50 – Energy Crisis Ripples00:18:59 – Debt Bubble and Default00:23:15 – Fed’s Policy Dilemma00:27:56 – Miners and Energy Risks00:32:47 – Iran’s Belligerence Scenarios00:40:20 – Gold’s Bullish Outlook00:43:25 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:X: https://x.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.comSubstack: https://dondurrett.substack.comAmazon Books: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articlesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23 Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back ‘The Market Sniper’ otherwise known as Francis Hunt. Francis a renowned trader and analyst, delves into the current economic landscape, focusing on the intersection of energy, inflation, and debt. Hunt emphasizes that the ongoing conflicts and disruptions in energy infrastructure, particularly in the Middle East and Russia, are driving a broader inflation story. He argues that the world is experiencing an extreme version of stagflation, characterized by economic stagnation and high inflation, which erodes household purchasing power. This scenario is exacerbated by excessive debt and the need for central banks to manage the debasement of fiat currencies. Hunt discusses the historical context of stagflation, comparing the current situation to the 1970s when OPEC’s actions pushed up oil prices, leading to a similar economic environment. He highlights the recent explosions and disruptions in energy infrastructure are not isolated incidents but part of a larger strategy to engineer inflation and manage debt. This strategy involves manipulating commodity prices, particularly oil, to control the cost of goods and services, ultimately affecting global economies. The conversation also touches on the role of digital price tags in supermarkets, which allow for real-time price adjustments, reflecting the immediate impact of inflation on consumer goods. Hunt warns that this technology could lead to sudden and significant price increases, further straining household budgets. He also mentions the potential for shortages in food and other essential commodities due to disruptions in global supply chains, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility. Hunt criticizes the mainstream media and financial institutions for misrepresenting economic data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment rates, to paint a rosier picture of the economy. He argues that these misleading narratives are part of a broader effort to control the narrative and maintain public trust in financial systems. He also highlights the potential for social unrest and economic instability as a result of the current economic policies, warning that the world is on the brink of a global depression. The conversation also covers the implications of the current economic environment for different countries, with a focus on Japan and the United States. Hunt argues that Japan, despite its high debt levels, is in a better position than the United States due to its lower energy dependence and more stable economic policies. Francis also discusses the potential for a reset of the global financial system, which could involve a shift away from fiat currencies towards more stable assets like gold. In conclusion, Hunt emphasized the importance of preserving wealth and maintaining a high standard of living in the face of economic uncertainty. He advises listeners to focus on self-reliance, community building, and personal freedom, while also being prepared for potential social unrest and economic instability. He ends the conversation on a positive note, encouraging listeners to live fulfilling lives and pursue their passions, regardless of the economic challenges they may face. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:02:55 – Hyperstagflation Overview00:07:36 – Oil as Financial Weapon00:10:30 – Digital Pricing Inflation00:13:40 – Debt, Scarcity, & Yields00:18:08 – Debt Debasement Mechanisms00:23:00 – Yield Curve Analysis00:28:48 – U.S. Debt & Japan00:35:33 – Gold as Capital Preservation00:44:04 – Financial Magazine Covers00:45:45 – Silver Outlook00:48:40 – XTI Crude Oil Chart00:51:18 – Gold & Social Unrest01:00:00 – Positive Outlook Guest Links:X: https://x.com/themarketsniperX: https://x.com/thecryptosniperWebsite: https://themarketsniper.comYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheMarketSniper Francis is a trader, first and foremost. Unlike most educators in the trading space, Francis walks the walk and talks the talk, with 30 years of experience trading his personal capital on various markets and instruments. Through this passion for trading and his relentless study of markets and economic theory, he uses the Hunt Volatility Funnel trading methodology, a systemized approach, to answer the critical question: What is the next most profitable trade? He believes the actual price of an asset is the most accurate reflection of all the factors that influence it. Practical technical analysis, the study of price action over time, is needed to formulate profitable trade ideas. Indeed, with all the market manipulation and high-frequency trading operations currently in play, technical analysis is all that can be relied upon when it comes to formulating future price trends. A trained eye can often spot such manipulative practices, as is the case with HVF traders. Therefore, the HVF methodology is based purely on technical analysis. Francis is passionate about sharing his knowledge and understanding of markets by utilizing his HVF trading methodology. With entertaining anecdotes and the careful guidance of his students, he has already trained a large community of hundreds of traders and helped them transform from complete newbies to seasoned trading professionals. He genuinely loves sharing his knowledge and strategies with others who are committed to finding freedom through trading. Plus, teaching strengthens his trading abilities while helping to build a vibrant community of successful traders.

Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management and Manager of EuroPacific Gold Fund, shares his insights on the mining industry and gold market during this episode with your host Tom Bodrovics. Day recently attended the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) conference, noting an initial positive sentiment among investors, particularly junior companies, although this declined as gold did not respond as expected to geopolitical events like the bombing in Iran. Day explains that gold tends to move ahead of such events but then drops in the immediate aftermath due to various factors, including the strength of the U.S. dollar and interest rates. Day expresses a bullish outlook on gold for the next six to twelve months, citing persistent inflation, fiscal deficits, and central bank policies as driving factors. He also highlights the significant buying of gold by central banks and Tether, a stablecoin organization, which is price-agnostic and buys gold to back its stablecoin. Day notes that individual investors in the U.S. are largely absent from the gold market, and institutional capital has not yet significantly driven the market. Adrian discusses the U.S. stock market’s complacency and the role of 401(k) plans in maintaining a steady flow of money into the market. He also touches on the disconnect between global and regional gold and oil prices, attributing this to liquidity crunches and regional supply issues. Regarding the broader commodity market, Day sees value in other commodities like copper, oil, and agricultural products, which have lagged behind gold and silver. He also notes that foreign markets are likely to outperform the U.S. market in the coming years, with good valuations in the UK, Hong Kong, and Brazil. Day predicts a stagnationary environment for commodities, with gold and oil potentially being top performers. He also discusses the Fed’s likely response to current economic conditions, expecting rate cuts but not as dramatic as some anticipate, and a continuation of quantitative easing. Looking ahead, Day believes the gold market will remain strong and that the U.S. will lose its dominant reserve currency status within the next decade, transitioning into a bipolar world with different spheres of influence. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:19 – PDAC Conference Sentiment00:02:07 – Gold Geopolitical Reactions00:07:36 – Market Complacency?00:11:36 – Price Dislocations Insights00:13:27 – Bullish Gold Drivers00:19:53 – US Policy Skepticism00:23:13 – Mining M&A Trends00:28:32 – Expanding Profit Margins00:34:14 – Silver Market Outlook00:38:00 – Value in Commodities00:43:05 – Stagflationary Environment00:48:13 – Fed Policy Expectations00:56:22 – Future Global Shifts00:59:50 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Website: https://adrianday.com/ Adrian Day is considered a pioneer in promoting the benefits of global investing in the United Kingdom. A native of London, after graduating with honors from the London School of Economics, Mr. Day spent many years as a financial investment writer, where he gained a large following for his expertise in searching out unusual investment opportunities around the world. He has also authored two books on the subject of global investing: International Investment Opportunities: How and Where to Invest Overseas Successfully and Investing Without Borders. His latest book, widely praised by readers, is Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks (Wiley, 2010). Mr. Day is a recognized authority in both global and resource investing. He is frequently interviewed by the press, domestically and abroad. He is a popular speaker and is frequently invited to lecture at financial conferences and seminars around the world. His pleasures include fine dining, reading (especially history), and the opera.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Lawrence Lepard, Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates to the show. The discussion centers on the increasingly complex economic and geopolitical landscape, the impact of the recent war and its potential consequences. Lepard highlighted several key indicators to monitor, including the U.S. 10-year yield, gold, Bitcoin, and the price of oil, which he believes are crucial for understanding market dynamics. Lepard expressed surprise that financial markets have held up relatively well despite significant risks, suggesting potential market manipulation by the federal government to maintain stability. He predicts the war could lead to a recession and a rollover in the stock market, although he believes the market might be artificially supported. Larry also discusses the potential for increased inflation due to higher energy costs and supply chain disruptions, particularly from the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact various commodities and goods. Lepard emphasized the importance of holding assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin, which he views as safe havens in an environment of potential currency debasement. He argues that the current monetary system is unsustainable and that a return to a sound money standard is necessary to prevent further economic and social issues. Lepard also touches on the private credit bubble, comparing it to the housing crisis of 2008, and warned that the unwinding of this bubble could have significant repercussions for the financial system. Throughout the discussion, Larry stresses the need for investors to stay informed and adaptable, as the economic environment is likely to remain volatile. He predicts the next leg of the gold and silver bull market is imminent, with silver potentially offering more asymmetric upside due to its industrial uses and lower stock levels. Lepard also highlights the potential of Bitcoin, particularly in geopolitically unstable regions, as a portable and secure store of value. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:32 – Key Market Indicators00:02:30 – Geopolitical War Risks00:04:26 – Bond Yield Signals00:05:20 – Market Manipulation Theories00:06:25 – Energy Cost Impacts00:08:03 – Strait of Hormuz Effects00:15:07 – Fed Liquidity Inflation00:25:03 – Private Credit Bubble00:31:48 – Silver Market Upside00:40:04 – Mining Stocks Potential00:49:25 – Positioning & Risks00:53:15 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:X: https://x.com/LawrenceLepardWebsite: http://www.ema2.comNewsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dTAmazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/llepard Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities. Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II. Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Lyn Alden, the founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, to discuss the economic implications of recent geopolitical events, particularly the Iran war, and its impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets. Alden emphasizes that fiscal dominance and sovereign debt crises often coincide with periods of war, complicating the investment landscape. She maintains that her base case scenario for the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet growth remains a “gradual print,” where the Fed will end quantitative tightening and transition to a gradually rising balance sheet in line with normal GDP or bank deposit growth. Alden highlights that the war in Iran, while expensive, is not a game-changer for the U.S. economy in the short term. However, it adds variance and uncertainty to the gradual print scenario, pulling forward the risk of a more significant print if the conflict escalates. She notes that the Fed’s primary concerns are disruptions in the interbank lending market and the Treasury market, both of which have shown minor stress but remain stable. The discussion also touches on the impact of higher energy prices on the economy and the housing market. Alden believes that a prolonged energy price spike could affect housing affordability and market sentiment but does not expect a housing market collapse in the near term. She also discusses the role of liquidity in financial markets and how assets like Bitcoin and gold can serve as proxies for global liquidity. Alden concludes by advising investors to expect elevated shocks and headlines due to the current geopolitical and economic environment. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:28 – Fiscal Dominance and War00:01:42 – Gradual Print Base Case00:03:14 – War Costs and Oil00:04:49 – Fed Printing Triggers00:08:36 – Market Stress Indicators00:10:17 – Tax Season Liquidity00:13:05 – Short End Curve Focus00:16:01 – Fed Chair Personalities00:23:53 – Housing Market Risks00:27:58 – Bitcoin Liquidity Proxy00:34:38 – Precious Metals Valuation00:39:03 – Multipolar World Assets00:44:00 – Japanese Debt Markets00:49:25 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:X: https://x.com/LynAldenContactWebsite: https://lynalden.com New Novel: https://www.lynalden.com/the-stolguard-incident/Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/lynaldenc Lyn Alden is editor and publisher of LynAlden.com, where she has both a subscription and a free financial newsletter. She says, “Her background lies at the intersection of engineering and finance.” Her site provides investment research and strategy, covering stocks, precious metals, international equities, and alternative investments, with a specialization in asset allocation. Whether you’re new to investing or experienced, there’s a lot there for you. Lyn has a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering and a master’s degree in engineering management, focusing on engineering economics and financial modeling. She oversees the finances and day-to-day operations of an engineering facility. She has been performing investment research for over fifteen years in various public and private capacities. Her work has been editorially featured or cited on Business Insider, Marketwatch, Time’s Money Magazine, The Daily Telegraph, The Philadelphia Inquirer, The Street, CNBC, US News and World Report, Kiplinger, and The Huffington Post. She has also appeared on Real Vision, The Investor’s Podcast Network, The Rebel Capitalist Show, The Market Huddle, and many other podcasts. She is also a regular contributor to Seeking Alpha, FEDweek, and Elliot Wave Trader.

Bob Coleman, Founder and President of Idaho Armored Vault, discusses the evolution of the gold and silver industry with your host Tom Bodrovics. Over the past five to six years, the industry has shifted from a focus on mining and monetary metals to a more casino-like atmosphere, driven by high-frequency trading and hedge funds. This shift has led to increased volatility and the dominance of paper markets over physical metals. Coleman highlights the role of ETFs like SLV and GLD, which are used for investment, hedging, and speculation, and how options and futures markets influence price movements. He notes that the physical metal remains the bedrock of the industry, but the price action is often driven by derivative strategies rather than physical demand. Bob also discusses the impact of high-frequency trading and algorithmic strategies on price movements, citing examples from October 2023 and January 2024. He explains how the dislocation of metal between exchanges and the tightening of borrowing rates can create volatility and affect the ability of market makers to create shares. Coleman raises concerns about the reliability of exchanges like the CME and LME, citing outages and the cancellation of trades, which can create uncertainty and reputational risk. He also discusses the role of margins in stabilizing or destabilizing markets and the potential for illiquidity to drive prices higher. Coleman advises investors to understand the fundamentals of the market, the market structure, and the risks associated with storing metals. He cautions against relying too heavily on AI and encourages critical thinking and diversification of knowledge sources. Coleman also touches on the potential impact of longer-dated calls on gold and the importance of understanding the strategies behind such trades. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:47 – Industry Changes Overview00:02:28 – Derivatives Driving Prices00:03:30 – ETFs and Hedging Strategies00:05:06 – October vs January Moves00:06:18 – Physical Market Tightness00:11:00 – Exchange Inventories Decline00:14:08 – West vs East Exchanges00:23:27 – Volatility Impacts Operators00:29:48 – Future Market Outlook00:35:50 – Regulatory Crypto Changes00:40:55 – Government Oil Intervention00:44:26 – Managing Investor Risks00:47:10 – Long-term Silver Prospects00:54:46 – Wrap Up Guest Links:X: https://x.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/ Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security.

Edward Dowd, founding partner of Phinance Technologies and co-host of the Signal Vs. Noise Podcast, discusses several significant economic themes with Tom Bodrovics, including a potential housing crisis in the US, the bursting of the AI bubble, and China’s real estate and demographic challenges. Dowd highlights that a sustained oil price above $80 due to conflict with Iran could exacerbate the current economic situation, leading to deflationary pressures as consumers are already strained. The impending housing crisis, termed a “white swan” event, is driven by factors such as the post-COVID housing boom, increased property taxes, and rising interest rates. Dowd notes that the market is frozen due to unrealistic price expectations and affordability issues, with new home pending sales at an all-time low. This crisis could significantly impact the consumer economy, as housing constitutes about 20% of it. Dowd also addresses the AI bubble, suggesting that cracks are already appearing as credit markets question the growth rates and revenues of AI startups. He predicts that the AI bubble could burst this year, with credit markets playing a crucial role in this process. The discussion also touches on the differences between private credit and public credit cycles. Private credit, which has grown significantly post-2008, is more opaque and could lead to higher bid-ask spreads as the cycle unwinds. Dowd warns that this could create feedback loops, tightening credit and potentially freezing the market. Regarding the stock market, Dowd believes it has been stagnant since October 2022 and predicts a 30-50% drawdown. He advises having cash on hand to take advantage of opportunities during this deflationary scare. Dowd also discusses the potential for a new monetary system, suggesting that gold and silver will play a significant role and could reach much higher prices by 2030. Dowd sees the US dollar as a strong currency in the next 6-12 months and expects bonds to perform well due to declining growth expectations and deflationary pressures. He also highlights the potential contagion effects from China’s real estate and demographic crisis, which could impact its trading partners and, consequently, the global economy. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:40 – War with Iran Risks00:02:25 – Housing Crisis Unfolding00:07:05 – Media and Job Data00:11:03 – AI Bubble Cracking00:13:12 – Private Credit Challenges00:17:49 – Disinflationary Environment Ahead00:19:40 – Gold Silver Outlook00:22:06 – US Dollar Strength00:23:45 – Tokenization Privacy Concerns00:25:45 – Bonds in War Context00:27:32 – China Real Estate Crisis00:30:20 – Market Indicators & Sources00:31:47 – Wrap Up Guest Links:X: https://x.com/DowdEdwardGETTR: @EdwardDowdLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-dowd-87902158/Website: https://eddowd.com Edward Dowd is a founding partner with Phinance Technologies. Edward worked on Wall Street the majority of his career most notably at Blackrock as a portfolio manager where he managed a $14 billion Growth equity portfolio for ten years. His book ‘Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Death in 2021 & 2022’ propelled him as an alternative voice during the pandemic and the economic implications that continue to plague us today. Their unique alternative macroeconomic analysis of the global debt crisis and what may unfold has given many a deeper understanding of the global nature of our problems today.

Craig Tindale, a private investor and writer of the CTindale Substack, joined your host Tom Bodrovics for an in-depth discussion on geopolitical dynamics, economic shifts, and the implications of artificial intelligence (AI). The conversation began with an analysis of the geopolitical situation in Iran, particularly focusing on the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. Tindale emphasized that the strait is a critical choke point for global energy and trade, comparing it to the jugular vein of global commerce. He noted that while oil prices spiked during recent conflicts, the market’s initial lack of reaction to the 12-day war signaled a belief that oil shipping through the strait would not be significantly disrupted. Tindale delved into the concept of “titanium bolts”—small but crucial components that, if missing, can halt entire systems. He applied this analogy to the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that even if oil flow is maintained, the disruption of other critical supplies could have profound economic consequences. He highlighted the interdependence of global economies, using China as an example, noting that while China has significant oil reserves, it imports vast amounts of other essential goods, making it vulnerable to disruptions. The discussion then shifted to the role of AI in the global economy. Tindale argued that while AI is often portrayed as a job-killing technology, its impact is more nuanced. He pointed out that many jobs, particularly in white-collar sectors, have already been automated or outsourced. Tindale suggested that AI could fill gaps left by an aging workforce, particularly in sectors like aged care, where demand is expected to rise significantly. He also criticized the current marketing and implementation of AI, suggesting that companies are not effectively communicating the benefits and capabilities of the technology. Tindale and Bodrovics also explored the idea of decoupling between the U.S. and China, suggesting that while there is a political push for decoupling, the economic interdependence is too deep to be easily severed. They discussed the potential for a new geopolitical balance, where the U.S. and China might find a way to cooperate despite their differences. The conversation concluded with a reflection on the evolution of technology and society. Tindale emphasized the importance of understanding the physical and metabolic systems that underpin the economy, suggesting that the future will involve a rebalancing of global trade and a focus on sustainability and resilience. He advised listeners not to over-rely on predictions and to maintain a balanced perspective on the future. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:00:39 – Iran Conflict and Oil Risks00:07:30 – Strait of Hormuz Impacts00:10:49 – China’s Energy Dependence00:14:30 – US-China Strategic Balance00:20:50 – Limits of Economic Decoupling00:23:20 – State Capitalism and Industry00:26:30 – Unrestricted Warfare Concepts00:35:00 – AI Job Replacement Myths00:45:00 – Demographics and AI Opportunities00:56:10 – AI Marketing and Adoption00:58:34 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Substack: https://ctindale.substack.com/X: https://x.com/ctindaleLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/craigtindale Craig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in east-to-west supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies. He’s now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Peter Goodburn, founding partner of WaveTrack International to the show. They discuss the impact of recent geopolitical events in the Middle East on financial markets, with a focus on commodities and metals. Goodburn, an advocate of Elliott Wave analysis, emphasized that this method discounts fundamental news, with price action preceding exogenous events. He cited the recent decline in precious metals, despite expectations of a safe-haven rally, as an example of this phenomenon. Goodburn also discussed the “shock pop drop” cycle, a concept he introduced in 2010 to explain the behavior of stock and commodity markets since the Great Depression. According to this framework, the financial crisis of 2008 was the “shock,” followed by a “pop” phase of commodity inflation, which is still ongoing and expected to last until the end of the decade. The subsequent “drop” phase will be characterized by a collapse in asset prices. Goodburn expects interest rates to rise significantly in the coming years, with the Fed funds rate potentially reaching 10%. He also discussed the implications of the US dollar’s bearish long-term outlook for commodities and the potential for a significant increase in oil prices in the future. Goodburn provided specific price targets for various commodities, including gold, silver, platinum, and uranium, based on Elliott Wave analysis. He also highlighted the importance of questioning mainstream narratives and conducting independent research in financial markets. Goodburn encouraged listeners to explore WaveTrack International’s reports and services for further insights. Timestamps:00:00:00 – Introduction00:01:05 – Geopolitical Events Market Impact00:06:20 – Shock Pop Drop Cycle00:12:26 – Inflation & Rates Path00:13:41 – Dollar Bearish Outlook00:14:52 – Copper Price Manipulation00:16:09 – Pandemic Inflation Impulse00:20:43 – Copper Crude Ratio Analysis00:33:34 – Gold Silver Reaction00:36:18 – Precious Metals Technicals00:43:35 – Silver Targets Strategies00:47:47 – Platinum Outperformance Forecast00:53:12 – Uranium Market Roadmap00:57:33 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:X: https://x.com/ElliottWave_WTIWebsite: https://wavetrack.com Peter Goodburn is the founding partner of WaveTrack International. His trading experience spans back to the late 1970s working then in the commodities business for exchange members and their clients. In those earlier years of his career, he created the first OTC (over-the-counter) copper option product based upon the Comex (New York) contract around the mid-eighties, and in the same period, devised Opval, an option-evaluation software program that is currently used in many of the major market-making institutions of today. His fascination with price activity and how that related to the news flow within the markets captured his imagination early on. Peter’s first annual diary of 1978 records his notes and remarks on how the interaction and relationship of fundamental news and price movement often contradicted themselves. Some years later, this was to ignite his interest in causal theory and naturally, the Elliott Wave Principle. He was first introduced to the Elliott Wave Principle in the mid-eighties listening to daily updates of financial commentary by Bob Beckman on LBC radio (London Broadcasting Company). This led him to the work of Frost/Prechter and their first re-publication of R.N.Elliott’s (1871-1948) original treatise of 1938 (The Wave Principle) and 1946 (Nature’s Law – The Secret of the Universe), entitled “the Elliott Wave Principle” (1978). Peter’s a self-proclaimed purist of the Wave Principle but has developed a unique approach of geometric Ratio & Proportion that is instrumental in maintaining a dispassionate and objective view of the market. He has applied this analysis to every major asset class over the years, stocks, bonds, currencies & commodities, and promotes the importance of interdependency of the combined group. Peter has been a member of the U.K.’s Society of Technical Analysts (STA) for over twenty-five years and is a Certified Financial Technician recognized by the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). He has taught the Elliott Wave Principle to students at the London School of Economics as part of the STA’s diploma program and is a member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and the Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology and Life Sciences. He has published many of his forecasts in various journals over the last twenty years including Currency Confidential, Managed Derivatives, Investment Management, The Ringsider, Market Technician, and quoted by many others, including Metal Bulletin, The Speculator, Focus, Fund Investment, International Herald Tribune, and Reuters. It has brought him in contact with the many diverse fields of finance, delivering presentations for major industry governing bodies and many corporate clients.

Craig Tindale, private investor and Substack writer focused on supply chains and critical materials. He explores the shift from a financialized to a material economy. Short segments examine China’s refining dominance, critical-metal shortages like gallium and tantalum, vulnerabilities in defense and tech supply chains, and why rebuilding domestic manufacturing and refining capacity matters.