Environment China

In this episode, we're going to take a deep dive on modeling China's long-term, carbon-neutral energy future with Yu Sha and Ryna Cui of the University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability. Dr. Yu and Dr. Cui co-lead the China Program at CGS. Dr. Ryna Cui is an expert in global coal transition and climate and energy policies in China. Her research focuses on climate change mitigation, and sustainable energy transition, and she is experienced in global and national integrated assessment modeling of China, India and the United States. She is currently serving as a contributing author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report on the topic of global coal transition. Dr. Sha Yu is an expert in clean energy, finance, and economic modeling. She leads the development of GCAM-China and engagement on China's long-term strategies and transition pathways. She has over 10 years of experience working on policy development and implementation in China at the national, provincial, and local levels. Dr. Yu is also a leading expert on China integrated assessment modeling and analysis. She also leads projects in other developing countries, such as India and Vietnam. This is a pretty data-intensive episode. Here are some time stamps and quick notes: 2:30 About the GCAM model, it's main advantages and uses. 3:50 Using the GCAM model to identify and prioritize which coal plants should be closed early. 6:10 Which regions would see the most early retirements under the model. 6:46 The history and flaws in China's Risk Alert system (traffic light system) for provinces approving new coal plants. 10:25 The Five Strategies, which are: (1) Promoting sustainable demand while restructuring the economy. (2) Decarbonizing electricity generation and shifting electricity system to a more diverse system, based mainly on renewables but supplemented by nuclear and CCS (carbon capture and storage). (3) Electrification of major energy consuming sectors such as transport and buildings. (4) For hard-to-electrify sectors or technologies, switch to low-carbon biofuels or other low-carbon fuels. (5) Negative emissions including carbon capture and land use changes to cover emissions from hard-to-decarbonize fields. 12:25 The key graph (page 2 of this PDF: https://cgs.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2020-09/5%20Strategies_China%202060_english.pdf). Renewables accounts for 70% of primary energy in 2050, remainder comes from nuclear and CCS. Similarly, over 70% of electricity comes from RE. 14:00 Estimated installed solar in 2050 of 2500-3500 GW and for wind 1500-2500 GW, so around 10x present installation figures. Wide range depends on economics of alternatives as well as demand growth, which in turn depends on efficiency measures and other changes. 16:10 Carbon storage - which regions have potential storage sites (oil and gas reservoirs, aquifers, offshore) and what variables determine storage economics? Which sectors best for capture? The importance of transportation distance as a variable in CCS economics. 18:05 Transport: Harder to decarbonize because it is heterogeneous. Light-duty vehicles can be electrified fairly quickly. Other transport subsectors may peak emissions later. 19:04 Buildings sector - not hard to decarbonize based on technology, but faces implementation challenges, especially for retrofit. Needs more policy incentives. 20:10 Nuclear: Model assumes nuclear restricted to coastal locations, but still finds quite significant growth of nuclear. 20:40 How are various models used by policy makers? Models provide evidence to base policy decisions on, but it should be a two-way conversation. Models can also help financial players evaluate risks given trends and policies. 22:37 Top recommendations: (1) No new coal. (2) Power market reform / economic dispatch. (3) Cross-sectoral planning instead of just looking within sectors, like just planning EVs. (4) Including non-CO2 in carbon neutrality target, since otherwise difficult to control emissions in methane and agriculture. (5) New growth model for coal-dependent regions. (6) Integrate fiscal policies at provincial and national level, and within financial sector, with low-carbon transition. 25:48 How you got started in energy modeling. For further reading: https://chinadialogue.net/en/climate/chinas-2060-carbon-neutrality-target-opportunities-and-challenges/ https://cgs.umd.edu/research-impact/publications/implications-continued-coal-builds-14th-five-year-plan-china-eng https://cgs.umd.edu/research-impact/publications/five-strategies-achieve-chinas-2060-carbon-neutrality-goal-en https://cgs.umd.edu/research-impact/publications/high-ambition-coal-phaseout-china-feasible-strategies-through

Today, we're talking about a new book, China Goes Green, by Judith Shapiro and Yifei Li. The book explores the promise and drawbacks of Chinese environmental governance in light of the urgency of climate change and other issues. It examines Chinese environmental governance through examination of specific cases of environmental programs such as the war on air pollution, waste sorting, tree planting campaigns, dam building, the best and road, and overall energy and environmental planning. Judith Shapiro is Director of the Masters in Natural Resources and Sustainable Development for the School of International Service at American University and Chair of the Global Environmental Politics program. She was one of the first Americans to live in China after U.S.-China relations were normalized in 1979, and taught English at the Hunan Teachers' College in Changsha, China. Professor Shapiro's research and teaching focus on global environmental politics and policy, the environmental politics of Asia, and Chinese politics under Mao. She is the author, co-author or editor of nine books including including China's Environmental Challenges (Polity 2016), Mao's War against Nature (Cambridge University Press 2001). Dr. Shapiro earned her Ph.D. from American University's School of International Service. She holds an M.A. in Asian Studies from the University of California, Berkeley and another M.A. in Comparative Literature from the University of Illinois, Urbana. Her B.A. from Princeton University is in Anthropology and East Asian Studies. Our second guest is Yifei Li. Yifei Li is Assistant Professor of Environmental Studies at NYU Shanghai and Global Network Assistant Professor at NYU. In the 2020-2021 academic year, he is also Residential Fellow at the Rachel Carson Center for Environment and Society in Munich. His recent work appears in Current Sociology, International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Environmental Sociology, and the Journal of Environmental Management. He received his Master's and Ph.D. degrees in Sociology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and Bachelor's from Fudan University. Further reading: https://www.amazon.com/China-Goes-Green-Coercive-Environmentalism/dp/1509543120/ https://chinadialogue.net/en/cities/as-china-goes-green-should-the-world-celebrate-its-model/

In today's podcast, we're talking about why it's been so difficult to get financing for renewable energy in the Belt and Road, also known as the Belt-Road-Initiative or BRI. (Note the podcast was recorded prior to the announcement that China would pursue carbon neutrality by 2060.) Our first guest is Ma Tianjie, Tianjie is managing editor of China Dialogue and several times past guest of Environment China. Before joining China Dialogue, he was Greenpeace's Program Director for Mainland China. He holds a master's degree in environmental policy from American University, Washington D.C. Our second guest is Bai Yunwen. Yunwen is the director of Greenovation Hub. Founded in 2012, Greenovation Hub is, an independent Chinese NGO advancing sound climate and environment governance. Over the years, Yunwen has worked on climate diplomacy, energy policy, and international financial flows. Recently, she and her colleagues have worked with financial regulators to strengthen environmental and social practices on belt-and-road investments. The Belt-and-Road Initiative, aka One Belt One Road, was launched in 2013, and though membership is unofficial it is said to include between 70 countries (Wikipedia) to over 130 countries (according to the BRI website). It's stated goal is to "promote the connectivity of Asian, European and African continents and their adjacent seas, establish and strengthen partnerships among the countries … and realize diversified, independent, balanced and sustainable development in these countries." An analysis by MERICS showed that of US$ 75 billion in completed investments, two-thirds was energy related, most of which was in coal, oil, and gas projects. https://merics.org/en/analysis/powering-belt-and-road The vast majority of coal plants outside of China are funded by investment from China. https://qz.com/1760615/china-quits-coal-at-home-but-promotes-the-fossil-fuel-in-developing-countries/ According to a Greenpeace analysis in 2019, China's BRI investments have supported 67 GW of coal plants and just 12 GW of wind and solar plants. https://www.power-technology.com/news/china-belt-and-road-wind-solar/ The genesis of today's podcast is a report by Greenovation Hub, which discussed some of the reasons why it is difficult for Chinese wind and solar companies to invest and do business abroad. https://chinadialogue.net/en/energy/11952-chinese-firms-struggle-to-fund-renewables-projects-overseas/

We don't do this often, but in today's podcast we address some breaking news: President Xi Jinping's announcement that China will peak carbon emissions before 2030 and set a new goal of net-neutral carbon emissions by 2060. The speech, delivered remotely to the United Nations during Climate Week, caught energy and climate watchers by surprise. In this mini-podcast, recorded less than 24 hours after the announcement, host Anders Hove gathered three top energy and climate experts (and long-time Beijing Energy Network speakers) for a short and rapid-fire panel discussion: Li Shuo is senior global policy analyst at Greenpeace East Asia. Lauri Myllyvirta is lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Kaare Sandholt is chief expert at the China National Renewable Energy Centre, at the NDRC Energy Research Institute. To keep the show notes brief, here are the items mentioned or referenced by the guests: The China National Renewable Energy Centre's China Renewable Energy Outlook (full version, may not work in certain browsers: http://boostre.cnrec.org.cn/index.php/2020/03/30/china-renewable-energy-outlook-2019-2/?lang=en; executive summary: https://www.dena.de/fileadmin/dena/Publikationen/PDFs/2019/CREO2019_-_Executive_Summary_2019.pdf) CREO's 2050 Below 2 Degree scenario anticipates non-fossil energy reaching 65% of primary energy (26% wind, 18% solar, 8% nuclear, 6% hydro, 8% other RE). Under this scenario, China would ramp up from installing around 40 GW of solar and 35 GW wind in recent years to 60 GW of solar and 55 GW wind in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), eventually peaking annual installations at 150 GW each wind and solar in 2031-2035), and finally reaching around 2,000 GW of wind and solar in the late 2030s. (China currently has over 200 GW each of wind and solar installed.) See also various publications using the China-SWITCH model, such as Enabling a Rapid and Just Transition Away from Coal," One Earth, 2020 at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7442150/ and "Rapid cost decrease of renewables and storage accelerates the decarbonization of China's power system," Nature, 2020, at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16184-x. Lauri mentions his recent article on China's covid recovery investments and how they break down by high-carbon versus low-carbon: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-covid-stimulus-plans-for-fossil-fuels-three-times-larger-than-low-carbon Kaare mentions Document #9 on Deepening Reform of the Power Sector. You can read more about that 2015 policy here: https://www.raponline.org/blog/a-new-framework-for-chinas-power-sector/ This episode was produced by Anders Hove and edited by Veronica Spurna.

Renewable energy is the key to reducing China's carbon emissions, and for many years experts have seen electricity markets as essential to the promotion of clean energy. In this episode, we check in with a leading U.S. expert on China's power sector, Michael Davidson, to discuss two recent papers he has published on the topic of power markets and renewable energy in China. Michael Davidson is an Assistant Professor in the School of Global Policy and Strategy and the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at the University of California San Diego. His research and teaching center on the engineering implications and institutional conflicts inherent in deploying low-carbon energy at scale, with a particular focus on China, India, and the U.S. He holds a PhD in engineering systems from MIT and was previously a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. For further reading: http://mdavidson.org/ Hongye Guo Michael R. Davidson, Qixin Chen. Da Zhang, Nan Jiang, Qing Xia, Chongqing Kang, Xiliang Zhang, Power market reform in China: Motivations, progress, and recommendations, Energy Policy, October 2020, at https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421520304444. Pre-publication version: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jya_iJmW-YqKZqqNg9552LNc-3EYGNY7/view Davidson, M. R. and Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga, Avoiding Pitfalls in China's Electricity Sector Reforms, The Energy Journal, 2020, at http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=3504. Pre-publication version: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5cx330qg Some useful definitions: Electricity spot market: For most commodities, a spot market refers to buying and selling of a commodity for immediate delivery. For electricity, the spot market usually consists of two markets with different lead times: the day-ahead and intraday markets. Market players on the day-ahead market trade in electricity for the following day. For intraday markets, the hour-ahead market is most common. Dispatch: Since electricity cannot be stored in power lines, the entity operating the power grid must continuously adjust the output of its power plants (or energy storage units) to meet fluctuations in electricity demand. This process is called the dispatch of power plants. Economic dispatch: Economic dispatch is the short-term determination of the optimal output of a number of electricity generation facilities, to meet the system load, at the lowest possible cost, subject to transmission and operational constraints. The main idea is that, in order to satisfy the load at a minimum total cost, the set of generators with the lowest marginal costs must be used first, with the marginal cost of the final generator needed to meet load setting the system marginal cost. Curtailment: Curtailment is the percentage reduction (usually by the grid operator) of output of a renewable power plant below what it could have otherwise produced. It is calculated by subtracting the electricity that was actually produced from the amount of electricity the plant could have produced given available wind or solar resources. Capacity factor: Also known as the capacity utilization factor, this is the ratio of the actual output from a power plant over the year (kWh) to the maximum possible output from it for a year (kWh) under ideal conditions. If a power plant has a maximum output (capacity) of 1,000,000 kW, and it operates at a capacity factor of 100% of the year, it would produce 1,000,000 kWh x 24 days x 365 hours = 8,760 GWh. In China, capacity factor is usually mentioned in terms of the number of operating hours per year, but the concept is the same (just divide operating hours by the number of hours in one year and the resulting percentage is the capacity factor). A higher capacity factor generally translates to a lower cost of electricity, since capital costs will be spread across more operating hours. Wholesale vs retail power markets: A wholesale market allows trading between generators, retailers and other financial intermediaries both for short-term delivery of electricity (see spot market) and for future delivery periods. A retail electricity market exists when end-use customers can choose their supplier from competing electricity retailers. In China, this retail market would typically exist mainly for large industrial consumers. Acronyms: SERC: State Electricity Regulatory Commission (defunct) NDRC: National Development and Reform Commission (responsible for all aspects of economic planning and regulation) NEA: National Energy Administration Background on the California 2000 electricity crisis: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/107th-congress-2001-2002/reports/californiaenergy.pdf In 2001, the Congressional Budget Office analysis stated that: "Long-term solutions to California's electricity problems will most likely require three changes: removing barriers to the addition of generating capacity, eliminating bottlenecks in the electricity transmission system, and removing regulatory restrictions on the sale of power throughout the broad western market... On the demand side, the prospects for successful restructuring would also improve if consumers faced the full costs of electricity and were better able to adjust their use of power in response to changing prices." The report went on to recommend real-time metering (mostly implemented), devices in homes to monitor power use and automatically schedule or interrupt consumption when prices are high. Here's a blog from leading California expert and California Independent System Operator board of governors member Severin Borenstein, of the University of California Berkeley, that offers specific criticisms of the present state of the California market with respect to consumer participation and utility/ISO communication with consumers: "Why don't we do it with demand?" https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2020/08/24/why-dont-we-do-it-with-demand/ Lastly, here is a fascinating summary from David Roberts of Vox discussing the need for more solar (not less), microgrids, and islanding capability to deal with blackouts and fires in California: https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/10/28/20926446/california-grid-distributed-energy

In today's podcast, we talk to two private sector experts working on the topic of corporate ESG - which refers to corporate policies and performance on the environment, sustainability, and governance. In the first part of the episode, we focus on the policies that have driven companies in China towards greater emphasis of ESG, and which companies are working most seriously on the topic of ESG. We discuss the process of certifying the first project in China under a new international ESG standard for infrastructure. And we close by examining what's next for ESG in China. Our first guest is Dang Anqi. Anqi is an ESG and sustainable investment analyst at Allianz France. She is leading the climate-related financial disclosure and the Sciences Based Targets Initiative at Allianz Investment Management. Her report on sustainable investment won the International Climate Reporting Awards in 2019. (Link: https://www.allianz.fr/content/dam/onemarketing/azfr/common/marque/pdf/BROCH_AZ_AIM_REPORT-2020-EXE_1507.pdf.) Our second guest is Tracy Li, senior manager at SGS Certification and Business Enhancement. SGS is a multinational company headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland which provides inspection, verification, testing and certification services. SGS China was established in 1991 with its head office in Beijing, and now has 78 branches in China, and over 15,000 employees. This episode could almost serve as a reference document to the topic of ESG in China, and at points there are a lot of laws and acronyms mentioned in the episode. Here are a few of the key resources you may want to have in front of you to keep up. 2019 Climate Bonds Initiative report on China's green bond market: https://www.climatebonds.net/resources/reports/china-green-bond-market-2019-research-report Major regulator milestones mentioned: In 2016, the People's Bank of China and other ministries issued the Guidelines on Establishing a Green Financial System: https://greenfinanceplatform.org/financial-measures-database/chinas-guidelines-establishing-green-financial-system In 2018, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued a directive concerning ESG disclosure: https://www.globalelr.com/2018/02/china-mandates-esg-disclosures-for-listed-companies-and-bond-issuers/ In 2018, the Asset Management Association of China issued the Green Investment Guidelines: https://greenfinanceplatform.org/financial-measures-database/chinas-green-investment-guidelines International ESG standards mentioned: Aluminum Stewardship Initiative (ASI): https://aluminium-stewardship.org/ Alliance for Water Stewardship (AWS): https://a4ws.org/ The Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure (SuRe) standard: https://www.sure-standard.org/ GIB stands for Global Infrastructure Basel (https://gib-foundation.org/), which manages the SuRe standard. (Disclosure: In his day-job with GIZ, Anders Hove has worked with SGS China in completing the first SuRe project certification, under the Sustainable Infrastructure Alliance.)

You have probably heard China's carbon market described as the largest carbon market in the world. That's only proper, since China is the largest carbon emitting country and the carbon market will cover the coal power sector, which accounts for around half of the country's emissions. 2020 was originally billed as a major year for climate policy, both globally and in China. Where does China's carbon market policy stand and how is it likely to evolve during the 14th Five-Year Plan period? What announcements should we expect this year? Our first guest is Stian Reklev, co-founder and reporter with Carbon Pulse, which provides news and intelligence on global carbon markets. He is based in Beijing, where he has covered emissions trading markets and climate policy across the Asia-Pacific region since 2009, first for Point Carbon and then for Reuters, before setting up Carbon Pulse in 2015. Our second guest is Yan Qin of Refinitiv, who is based in Oslo. Yan Qin is a power and carbon analyst with extensive experience in energy market analysis and quantitative modelling. Her work focus on the short-term outlook for power and carbon trading, supply-demand forecasting, and energy policy insights, mainly for clients at utilities and energy companies. She was power market consultant before joining the Point Carbon team in 2011. Yan holds a Masters in Economics from the University of Oslo. For further reading: IEA report on China's carbon ETS: https://www.iea.org/reports/chinas-emissions-trading-scheme Carbon Pulse: https://carbon-pulse.com/category/china-national-ets/ Refinitiv's annual global carbon market report and survey: https://www.refinitiv.com/en/resources/special-report/global-carbon-market-report#form

It's been a busy year for energy policy in China, and we're only in the beginning of July. This summer and fall are crucial periods in the design of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and many listeners are already aware that there are big issues at stake for climate and the environment. In today's podcast, we're releasing the audio of a Beijing Energy Network webinar held in mid-June. Recent Environment China podcast host Anders Hove and China Dialogue's Wu Yixiu delivered a joint presentation covering a lot of important details of this process. Topics touched on include: Recent renewable energy trends in China. Why China is seeing a wave of new coal plant approvals. Whether wind and solar are likely to grow in 2020, and how much. Whether China will enhance its climate ambition or adopt a carbon cap. What the new energy law and clean energy consumption mechanism drafts are all about. Some reading: The 14th Five-Year Plan: What Ideas are on the Table? https://chinadialogue.net/climate/11434-the-14th-five-year-plan-what-ideas-are-on-the-table/ Current Direction for Renewable Energy in China: https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/current-direction-for-renewable-energy-in-china/

In this week's podcast, we sit down with Chloe Dempsey to talk about meat, alternative protein, and the environment in China. Chloe is a research fellow at the Cellular Agriculture Society and Yenching scholar at Peking University, where she is completing a Master's of Economics. Chloe's thesis focuses on the market for cultured meat in China, with a focus on consumers. Chloe also has an interest in alternative protein, sustainable food solutions and agriculture across Asia, Oceania and Latin America. Chloe comes from both Australia and Ireland, both countries whose key exports to China are agricultural and food related. Chloe has previously lived in Brazil and has supplementary qualifications in philanthropy and social impact design. Chloe's undergraduate studies were in Law and International relations, and over the last four years she has studied, worked and volunteered across Greater China and the Asia Pacific in commercial law and for environmental and social causes. Since 2016, Chloe has been predominantly resident in Beijing and in her spare time enjoys long distance running and tracking down Beijing's best jianbing.

Asia is the world's top region for infrastructure investment, and these investments need to be sustainable in order to meet the Paris Climate Agreement goals and the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A fair number of standards now exist to help investors assess the sustainability of infrastructure, and one of those specific to the debt market is green bonds. In today's episode, we sit down with Xie Wenhong, China Program Manager at the Climate Bonds Initiative. Wenhong has experience working on development and energy in Southeast Asia, and previously worked under Dr. Ma Jun at the Center for Finance and Development of Tsinghua University. He holds an MA in International Policy Studies from Stanford University. Show notes: Greening China's Bond Market, by Sean Kidney: https://www.iisd.org/sites/default/files/publications/greening-chinas-financial-system-chapter-10.pdf Introduction to China's green bond market in China Dialogue (2018): https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/10387-International-investors-eye-China-s-green-bonds 2019 Green Bond Market Summary https://www.climatebonds.net/files/reports/2019_annual_highlights-final.pdf Growing green bond markets: The development of taxonomies to identify green assets https://www.climatebonds.net/files/reports/policy_taxonomy_briefing_conference.pdf Comparing China's Green Definitions with the EU Sustainable Finance Taxonomy https://www.climatebonds.net/resources/reports/comparing-china%E2%80%99s-green-definitions-eu-sustainable-finance-taxonomy-part-1