Polar Geopolitics - Arctic and Antarctic analysis

Reports of Russia’s discovery of huge oil reserves in Antarctic waters has caused concern in some quarters over (frozen) territorial claims and the future of the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, which permanently bans mining in and around the continent. Prof. Klaus Dodds, whose recent testimony for a UK parliamentary inquiry sparked a media firestorm over Russia’s activities and intentions in Antarctica, joins the podcast to discuss what he sees as classic grey zone tactics where, in this case, scientific research could possibly serve as a pretense for the pursuit of economic and geopolitical interests. Prof. Dodds also clarifies some common misconceptions over the significance of 2048 for the Antarctic Treaty, analyzes Antarctic geopolitics in the context of great power competition between China, Russia and the US, and shares ideas on how countries such as the UK—which is scheduled to release its first Antarctic strategy this autumn—can raise awareness and engage the public on increasingly important issues surrounding the polar regions.

“Greenland is the most dynamic piece in the new Arctic security jigsaw puzzle”, according to a new book that applies the international relations theory of securitization to analyze the security and geopolitics of Greenland and the Arctic. Marc Jacobsen, Ole Wæver and Ulrik Pram Gad, co-editors and authors of Greenland in Arctic Security: (De)securitization Dynamics under Climatic Thaw and Geopolitical Freeze, join the podcast to discuss the configuration of Arctic security and explain how relations between Nuuk, Copenhagen and Washington, as well as issues such as Greenlandic national identity, independence and sovereignty, are strongly influencing the future of the region. Marc Jacobsen is an Assistant Professor at the Royal Danish Defence College; Ole Wæver is a Professor at the University of Copenhagen; and Ulrik Pram Gad is a Senior Researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies. Greenland in Arctic Security is available from the University of Michigan Press: https://press.umich.edu/Books/G/Greenland-in-Arctic-Security2   Polar Geopolitics on Twitter / X: @polargeopol Polar Geopolitics YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@PolarGeopolitics   Polar Geopolitics on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/polargeopolitics Polar Geopolitics on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/polargeopolitics/ Polar Geopolitics website: http://www.polargeopolitics.com Polar Geopolitics on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/polargeopolitics Polar Geopolitics on PayPal: https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=KXUVZKGALMFXU

In this episode of the Polar Geopolitics podcast, recorded live at the 2024 Arctic Frontiers conference in Tromsø, Norway, host Eric Paglia interviews Andreas Østhagen of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute and Kelsey Frazier from the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies. The discussion ranges from global trends affecting the geopolitical position of the Arctic and local security issues specific to Alaska and the Barents Sea region, to the real and anticipated effects of climate change, the challenge of changing sea ice conditions and other maritime issues such as domain awareness, seabed claims and seabed mining, and the pressing need for investments in assets like port infrastructure and polar security cutters.

To analyze the transformed security environment in Northern Europe since the NATO accession of Sweden and Finland, this episode features an interview with Minna Ålander, research fellow at the Finish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki. The in-depth discussion, at time when the Nordic countries have been engaged with their NATO partners in the major Nordic Response 2024 military exercise, covers the interconnections between the Arctic and Baltic regions from a security standpoint, Nordic and US defense cooperation, the integration of Finland and Sweden into the NATO command structure, Finnish relations with China, and the hybrid warfare tactics that have been employed in the Baltic Sea and Finland’s border with Russia.  

Dr. Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, joins the podcast to discuss Antarctica and the short- and long-term impacts of climate change and the emerging green transition on the geopolitics of the polar regions. Dr. Bremmer, who recently returned from a trip to Antarctica, also explains how the six-decade success story of the Antarctic Treaty System could provide a precedent for the global governance of outer space in the years ahead.  

Anu Fredrikson, Executive Director of Arctic Frontiers and former director of the Arctic Economic Council, joins the podcast to discuss sustainable development, economic opportunities and the Green Transition that is taking place in the Arctic alongside structural changes in the regional security environment. With the annual Arctic Frontiers conference coming up in the end of January, Anu Fredrikson also takes up some of the Big Picture themes that will animate discussions in Tromsø, such as Global Actions/Arctic Reactions, Arctic Security-Local Resilience, Navigating Arctic Realities, and Rethinking Arctic Development.

The deployment of subsea data cables across different marine areas of the circumpolar North has become a significant development in discussions of Arctic geopolitics. Meanwhile security concerns over subsea infrastructure have become heightened by recent incidents involving the disruption and destruction of energy pipelines and telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea. Nima Khorrami, a research associate at the Arctic Institute, joins the podcast to explain why data cables are crucial for the economic development of the Arctic, and how the expansion of subsea infrastructure entails the need for an enhanced security presence in the region, perhaps on the part of NATO. The episode also includes a discussion on the recent announcement that Dubai-based DP World will partner with Russia in developing the Northern Sea Route, and whether this signals a new interest in the Arctic among middle eastern countries such as the United Arab Emirates.

The podcast discusses Russia's military buildup in the Arctic, including motivations behind their actions and the geopolitical situation in the region. It explores potential hotspots, the legal status of Svalbard and the Northern Sea Route, and the role of technology in shaping the Arctic security environment.

The recently destroyed Kakhovka Dam and the nearby Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station are inextricably linked legacies of Soviet energy infrastructure that have become major concerns in the midst of the war in Ukraine. Achim Klüppelberg from the Nuclear Waters project at KTH Royal Institute of Technology is an expert on nuclear energy in Ukraine and Russia, and he joins the podcast to provide an in-depth analysis of the dire situation in the lower-Dnieper region. He also explains the enduring risks and complexities surrounding nuclear energy and infrastructure in the post-Soviet space, including Chernobyl, and discusses an array of nuclear issues related to the Russian Arctic.

The United States is an Arctic country on account of Alaska, which has for almost 50 years been a major domestic source of oil and natural gas, facilitated by the extensive Trans-Alaska Pipeline System. Alaska has thus been critical for US energy security, as well as national defense due to its close proximity to Russia. However, despite popular perceptions and controversial projects such as Willow, the dominance of the oil industry in Alaska has declined in recent years. Dr. Philip Wight, assistant professor at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks and an expert on Alaska’s energy infrastructure, joins the podcast to discuss an array of issues related to Alaska and the Arctic, including the changing role of oil in the state’s political economy, environmental concerns connected to the extraction of energy and mineral resources, the importance of the massive military presence in the state, and the enduring tensions between Alaska and the US federal government. He also provides a comparison between Alaska and other sub-regions in the circumpolar North.