Curve Your Enthusiasm

Ian and Royce take stock of the divergence between strong inflationary signals and a bond market that just won’t stop rallying. And keeping with the theme of divergence, Royce discusses why the compositional differences of the Fed and Bank of Canada’s policy framework is contributing to perceived BoC hawkishness, noting too that AIT is creating too much uncertainty. The co-hosts also dissect the contents of the BoC meeting this week, and the Economic Update speech from Deputy Governor Tim Lane. As well, Royce and Ian decide to roll over their Canadian CPI bet. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Royce and Ian are back together after a few weeks off to dissect all of the conflicting economic data releases in the US. Royce talks about how some of the growing pains south of the border might be a precursor to future developments in Canada. Ian gives a rundown of how investors are digesting all of this new information, and flags some potential catalysts for market volatility in the coming months. The episode closes with Royce discussing new research on the neutral rate in Canada, which suggests that the economy might need rates to eventually rise higher than the Bank of Canada thinks and at a faster pace than the market is now pricing in. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ian and Royce discuss what calls they got right and what surprised them in this week’s Federal Budget and Bank of Canada announcement. They give their views on which central bank’s outlook is more likely to be realized between the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve. Ian discusses how the expected supply in the Government of Canada bond market this year will interact with the central bank’s tapering plans. Royce talks about why market pricing for the terminal rate in Canada might not actually be that aggressive. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Royce and Ian discuss whether something is ‘off’ in the recent jobs data, questioning whether the seasonal adjustment process has broken-down. Royce provides his view on what to expect in Budget ’21 next week, while Ian looks ahead to the BoC rate-decision and the likelihood that a taper is announced. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Royce and Ian discuss the latest Fed announcement and how some of the accompanying projections seemed inconsistent with others. They talk about why the new forecasts could be subject to more change than usual, and how that fits in with the Fed’s new reaction function. They conclude that this leaves more room for markets to ‘fight the Fed’ dot-plot than in the previous cycle. The conversation then moves on to an analysis of the relative timing and magnitude of Bank of Canada and Fed rate hikes priced into markets. Royce asks Ian whether he expects any hints about BoC tapering from Deputy Governor Gravelle in next week’s speech. Ian closes the show with a final question about Canada’s housing market, seemingly unrelated to the rest of the episode. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ian and Royce discuss the recent bond market selloff from their own perspectives, and conclude that a ‘high pressure’ economic outcome isn’t the driving force. Royce surprises us with his love of farms, while Ian talks about his expectations for the BoC meeting next week and when we can expect a taper. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ian and Royce discuss the recent bond market selloff and the ongoing debate regarding the US fiscal package. With volatility increasing in both fixed income and equity markets, the arguments have moved from the ivory towers to the real world. They also touch on the implications of all this for the expected QE taper by the Bank of Canada. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Royce and Ian discuss the latest developments in the US regarding the Federal Reserve. Royce talks about how a range of employment indicators will be in focus as central bankers figure out what constitutes maximum employment, and how that will affect the timing of rate increases. Ian discusses how tapering US QE could affect Canadian rates. Ian and Royce then chat about how all of this affects the Canadian dollar. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Royce and Ian interpret the Governor of the Bank of Canada’s remarks on a host of vital issues, including a micro-cut, the effective lower bound for rates, the future of quantitative easing and the central bank’s inflation mandate. Royce also discusses the upgrades to the economic outlook in the latest Monetary Policy Report, and Ian breaks down some of the divergences seen in short-term Canadian rates. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ian and Royce are back in the studio, talking about the potential merits of a Bank of Canada microcut. Ian discusses the interesting way in which yields have been rising, while Royce does a deep-dive on the forecasts we can expect to see coming out of the MPR next week. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.