ICIS - chemical podcasts

LONDON (ICIS)--Sluggish demand, a complex tariff landscape and geopolitical instability are key talking points in the Europe and US epoxy markets.In this podcast, Heidi Finch who covers the Europe epoxy market and fellow senior editor Tarun Raizada who covers the US epoxy market share insights on tariff uncertainty, ongoing demand and margin concerns in a troubled climate. Tariff and trade haze continue to cast shadows over the epoxy markets in both Europe and the US.* Demand remains fragile and cautious across regions, with limited restocking activity in Q1, no meaningful recovery expected in the first half of the year, some uplift hopes for H2. Pricing tension persists, amid margin concerns vs soft market conditions Europe bears the brunt of competition from South Korea,  due to EU anti‑dumping exemptions Possible EU review of anti‑dumping duties/SK ADD exemption could potentially level out the playing field *Since the podcast recording, Trump has called off his 10% tariff threat from 1 February on some EU countries over the Greenland dispute  following a productive meeting with  NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.Podcast editing: Zubair Adam

The whip shaw over tariffs relating to the Greenland dispute highlights the need for chemical companies to plan for a world of rising geopolitical instability. ·         Trump’s tariff swings deepen uncertainty for global chemical trade·         EU–US deal stalls, exposing fragile trade negotiation structures·         Davos leaders warn of weakening global institutions and alliances·         China presents itself as stabilising force amid shifting geopolitics·         Trade deals no longer guarantee protection from sudden policy shocks·         Tariff uncertainty threatens investment, planning and market confidence·         Chemicals growth areas include defence, recycling and water technologies·         Chemicals may need to develop strong regional championsIn this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. 

Despite widespread geopolitical instability around the world, the most severe period of crude oil oversupply ever will depress prices, latest ICIS forecasts show.   -          For 2026 global oil markets are in the largest period of oversupply we have ever seen-          Oversupply forecast by ICIS at 3 million barrels/day out of a roughly 100 million barrels/day market-          China oil demand growth has slowed drastically thanks to slowing economy and transition to electric vehicles-          OPEC is increasing supply, unwinding previous cuts-          Around 20% of global oil supplies pass through Strait of Hormuz so closing it could push prices above $100/barrel. -          End Q1/early Q2 Brent crude oil prices could decline under $60/barrel as fundamentals of oversupply take over from geopolitical concerns-          Overall prices could be 15% lower than in 2025, ICIS forecasts-          China-driven chemicals oversupply will persist in 2026-          Developing world outside China may become a driver of chemicals demand-          SABIC’s petrochemical sale ushers in new era of ownership by turnaround investors In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS market development director John Richardson, ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Ajay Parmar, head of oil markets for ICIS.  

Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting, gives macroeconomic perspective on Europe's chemical decline. Gerard McElwee, EU chemicals law expert, explains REACH revision and One Substance One Assessment. Peter Sellar, regulatory partner, discusses CLP, classification debates and recycling rules. They focus on regulatory reform, reporting changes, chemical recycling and timelines for 2026.

December sees a quiet spell in the European oxo-alcohols and derivatives markets, marked by ample supply and a noticeable lack of demand. Insights reveal stable propylene costs and a softening butyl acetate market as major producers adjust supplies. Skepticism looms over a potential demand recovery by 2026, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and infrastructure uncertainties. Factors like low inventories and changing buyer behavior are reshaping market dynamics, while margin pressures and import competition pose challenges for European producers.

In the second of a two-part Sustainably Speaking podcast special, Helen McGeough, ICIS Global Analyst Team Lead for Plastics Recycling talks to long-standing veterans of the European recycling industry about the current state of the market and steps for the future.In Part 2, Helen is joined by Bernard Merkx who has an extensive background in the recycling industry and is the former President of Plastics Recyclers Europe, to take a look at the challenges still facing the recycling markets today, including: Risk of bankruptcies, high energy costs and price volatility to persist to 2027 New recycling capacities focused on packaging at the expense of the automotive and construction sector despite upcoming recycled content targets How imports into the EU remain essential in the short-term  Plus some calls to action for Europe’s recycling industry

With the prospect of global overcapacity easing from around 2030, Middle East petrochemical players are debating how to monetise their plentiful natural gas supplies.  Middle East producers plan a major new capacity wave after 2030,  Long‑term strategy centres on monetising hydrocarbons beyond 2030 China’s overcapacity cycle may ease by around 2030,  Debate about staying focused on simple, large‑volume commodity grades or moves into higher‑value or specialty polymers Climate‑driven demographic and economic pressures in the Global South could reshape demand Chinese competition in high‑value chemicals is intensifying Maintaining strong ties with China remains important today Massive crude oil‑to‑chemicals (COTC) ambitions are being moderated Partnerships and M&A are key tools for Middle East companies to secure technology, expand globally, and balance portfolios   In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS senior consultant John Richardson. Download a special issue of ICIS Chemical Business with full coverage of the recent Gulf Petrochemical Association (GPCA) event. 

In the first of a two-part Sustainably Speaking podcast special, Helen McGeough, ICIS Global Analyst Team Lead for Plastics Recycling talks to long-standing veterans of the European recycling industry about the current state of the market and steps for the future.In Part 1, Helen speaks to Dr Michael Scriba about the current downturn in Europe's recycling sector and discusses topics such as: What factors contribute towards the current prolonged industry downturn Industry barries such as lack of approval for polyolefins for use in food contact applications Large-scale adoption unlikely until 2030 Lack of a robust European collection and sorting system for many recycled polymers Key actions needed such as interim targets from 2026 to bridge the gap to 2030 goals

In this episode, James Wilson, an ICIS analyst focused on global chemical market forecasts, Tom Brown, Insight Editor and European chemicals commentator, and Paul Hodges, Chairman of New Normal Consulting, explore the increasing protectionism in Europe as the chemical industry anticipates a significant downturn by 2028. They discuss the urgent need for capacity closures to balance oversupply, particularly in ethylene and propylene, and the implications of China's rapid production growth on global markets. The geopolitical landscape and potential trade barriers emerge as critical factors in shaping the future of the industry.

Asian spot prices for butadiene (BD) are rebounding, after a prolonged period of declines, as supply tightens on various unplanned grounds, but the supply losses may be minimised if China exports rise.  Join ICIS Asian BD editors Elaine Zhang and Ai Teng Lim, as well as Senior Analyst Ann Sun, as they discuss current Asian BD market developments and a near term outlook.