Volatility Views

The Options Insider Radio Network
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May 1, 2017 • 1h 1min

Volatility Views 252: Did VIX Drop Too Much?

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash - 10.36 VVIX - 76.66, back in the toilet. CBOE Skew Index - 142.55, still rich. Russell's Weekly Rundown: VIX Options: Mon - 975k, Tues - 801k, Weds - 475k, Thurs - 571k, ADV - 734k VIX Call/Put - 2.7/1; Total 8.81m (6.55m Calls, 2.27m Puts) Earnings Volatility: Alphabet, Amazon, Intel, Starbucks, Alcoa, Chipotle Volatility Voicemail/OptionsQuestion of theWeek: Earnings Season is upon us. Big names are reporting soon. Which is your pick for the largest % move post-earnings? $AMZN - 36% $GOOGL - 26% $CMG - 30% $MSFT - 8% Listener questions and comments: Question from FContangotrader -What is your 2 cents on this article? Thanks. Comment from Lolzi - Could we all just get along and agree that VXX erodes relatively predictably? Who really cares if its roll yield or flying pigs as long as you can count on it with some degree of certainty? Question from JJonQuin - You say VIX call to put of 2-3 is normal. What is not normal? When should we get alarmed? 5? 6? Higher? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication. Last week: Mark L. - 12.75 Mark S. - 16 Russell - 13.25 This week: Mark L. - 11.5 Mark S. - 11 Russell - 11.95
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Apr 24, 2017 • 1h 5min

Volatility Views 251: VIX Feedback Loops and the Great Erosion Debate

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash: 14.15 VVIX: 94.53 CBOE Skew Index: 146.85 +6.65 (+4.74%), getting rich again. Russell's Weekly Rundown: VIX Options: Mon - 616k, Tues - 1.4M, Weds - 1.6M, Thurs - 752k, ADV - 712k VIX Call/Put: 3/1: Total 7.27m (5.45m Calls, 1.82m Puts) OIV/OVX - 28.26 Volatility Voicemail: Options #QuestionoftheWeek Earnings are back with some juicy straddles reporting this week. Which is your pick for the most overpriced? $NFLX: ATM Straddle 8% $BAC: ATM Straddle 3% $EBAY: ATM Straddle 7% $ETFC: ATM Straddle 4% Listener Questions: Question from Nizy - So I am confused. Per your VIX Myth-busting episode - what is the deal with with the VXX erosion? It is not due to the roll or it is? If so then how does it erode when VIX futures are backward? Question from Avil3 - UGetting my dad to the dark side. He is thinking about dipping his toes in the Vol waters. What product do you recommend for a Vol newcomer making his first trade? Thx and I will try to get him to listen. Crystal Ball: Wild prognosticating This week: Mark L. - 12.75 Mark S. - 16 Russell - 13.25
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Apr 17, 2017 • 20min

Best of Volatility Views: Election Special Part Two: Volatility After Dark

This Best of Volatility Views was recorded on November 8, 2016. The resurgence of Donald Trump in the U.S. election is weighing heavily on markets around the globe. We break down the historic action in VIX, Dow, SPX and more live on this special late-night episode of Volatility Views.
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Apr 17, 2017 • 19min

Best of Volatility Views: Election Special, Part 1

This episode of Volatility Views was recorded and posted on November 8, 2016. You want a Volatility Views looking at election volatility in real time? Well, Mark, Russell and the greasy meatball got together and did just that.
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Apr 10, 2017 • 1h 1min

Volatility Views 250: Busting VIX Myths

Volatility Review: Today we are joined by guest co-host Bill Valentine, Commodore Fund VIX Cash - 12.39, VVIX - 84 CBOE Skew Index - 131, back down to normal levels VIX Options: Mon - 597k, Tues - 368k, Weds - 720k, Thurs - 564k, ADV - 659k, (Total: 9.8M - 7M Calls, 2.8M Puts) VIX Call/Put - 2.4/ 1 OIV/OVX - 26 - in the toilet GVZ - 12.85 TYVIX - 5.12 Volatility Voicemail: Comment from LVT. Re: your discussion from last week. I think moving averages are worthwhile when analyzing VIX. Other than that, not so much. Crystal Ball: Your VIX prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. - 12.50 Andrew - 12 Russell - 12.80 This week: Mark L. - 12.65 Mark S. - 12 Russell - 9.87 Bill - 13
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Apr 3, 2017 • 1h 4min

Volatility Views 249: The Final Word on Skew

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash - 11.54 VVIX - 7.5 CBOE Skew Index - 139 Russell's Weekly Rundown: How is the April 26 fly looking? VIX Options: Mon - 635k, Tues - 740k, Wed - 601k, Thurs - 498k, ADV - 648k VIX Call/Put: 2.4/ 1. Total 8.91m (6.30m Calls, 2.62m Puts) OIV/OVX - 28 GVZ - 12.06 TYVIX - 4.68 Volatility Voicemail: Options #BrokerMadness tournament going on now. Finals matchup! We have @Lightspeed v. @OptionsHouse Question from CheckersKing - I see a lot of folks talking about about moving averages and support and resistance levels in $VIX. Is this kind of TA useful with $VIX or is it apples to oranges? Question from MoustacheGod - I think I am too late but I pick axe/sword for the zombie apocalypse. What do I win. Jk. But if I am looking at an end times indicator is there one that is better than the rest or is it all about context and grouping multiple indicators together. Crystal Ball: Wild prognostication Last Week: Mark L - 12.50 Mark S. - 12 Russell - 12.80 Ricardo - 13.5 This Week: Mark L. - 12.50 Mark S. - 12 Russell - 12.80
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Mar 27, 2017 • 1h 7min

Volatility Views 248: International Volatility Explosion

Volatility Review: Today we have special guest co-host: Ricardo Manrique, Executive Director/Index Business Management, Derivatives at MSCI. VIX Cash - 13.12 VVIX - 89, VIX has closed below 13 for 54 consecutive sessions now, the longest streak since Feb. 2007. CBOE Skew Index - 132, dramatically lower than earlier this week, hit a high of 154.34 on March 17. VIX Futures - Front month: .9, Two Month: 1.4 VIX Options: Mon - 785k, Tues - 1.6M, Weds - 917k, Thurs - 512k, ADV - 637k. Total 8.09m (5.77m Calls, 2.32m Puts) VIX Call/Put: 2.5 / 1 OIV/OVX - 29.85 GVZ - 12.58 TYVIX - 4.37 Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from FKSTHLM: Hey you guys discussed put selling on SVXY last week on Volatility Views, without mentioning the risk that this ETP could actually go to zero overnight. Is a doubling of VIX futures overnight impossible to happen in the future? What would happen to open options positions if so? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last Week: Mark L. - 10.65 Mark S. - 10.90 Russell - 11.11 This Week: Mark L. - 12.50 Mark S. - 12.00 Russell - 12.80 Ricardo - 13.50
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Mar 20, 2017 • 1h 5min

Volatility Views 247: 25 Is the New 30 in VIX

Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash: 11.16 VVIX: 75 CBOE Skew Index: 153.66, highest since 6/27/16. VIX Futures, Front month premium to cash - 0.5, Two month - 2 Russell's Weekly Rundown: VIX Options: Mon - 317k, Tues - 578k, Weds - 1.26M, Thurs - 546k, ADV - 605k VIX Call/Put: 2.5 / 1 Total 11.6M We have officially killed the 30 strike! OIV/OVX - 28.22, spiked to nearly 35 last week on WTI sell-off GVZ - 11.07 TYVIX - 4.37 Volatility Voicemail: Options #QuestionoftheWeek $VIX = 11.50, $SNAP IV30 =56, $AAPL IV30 = 14, $OIV= 33. If you had to buy #Volatility-which is the best value? $SNAP - aka Tween Vol $AAPL - aka #iPhone Vol $VIX - aka $VIX $OIV -aka #Crude $VIX Listener questions: Question from MerchantAdventurers - Non jargon...lots are betting VIX goes lower, yes? Question from Grow Your Business - There will be a day in the next 60 days that it will spike big. Should have a pool to see who guesses the correct date. April 13th! Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Mark L. - 10.65 Mark S. - 10.90 Russell - 11.11
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Mar 13, 2017 • 50min

Volatility Views 246: On the Bleeding Edge of Volatility at CBOE RMC

Volatility Review: Vol Views is live from the 2017 RMC Conference in Dana Point, CA! Mark and Russell are joined by: Bill Luby, VIX and More Ilya Feygin, Managing Director, Wallachbeth Themes from the event include: Kelly criterion How low VIX is Buying options Social media sentiment Steepness of vol term structure Sector movement Weekend risk and the dampening of volatility And more
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Mar 6, 2017 • 1h 2min

Volatility Views 245: Volatility Disconnect

Volatility Viewpoint: This episode features a special guest: David Hait, Founder of OptionMetrics. He discusses: A overview of Option Metrics and the Feb. 21 release on skew What is the flavor of choice for skew at Option Metrics? Why does he think we are seeing such a bid in VIX futures right now? How does this term structure compare to historical levels? What his your outlook for volatility under Trump? Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash - 11.71, unchanged from last week. VVIX - 83.61, also unchanged from last week. CBOE Skew Index - 133.6. Front month premium to cash: 1.4, less than last week. Two month premium to cash: 3.25, slightly less than last week. Russell's Weekly Rundown: VIX Options: A mild volume week. ADV - 575k. Mon - 437k, Tues - 455k, Weds - 492k, Thurs - 275k. Total 9.70m (7.04m Calls, 2.66m Puts) SNAP: The first big IPO of the year is off to the races. It was supposed to list at $17, opened at $24 and traded up to nearly $26. Options Pop Quiz: If $SNAP opens at $17 what price would you give the ATM straddle expiring 3/10? AKA how much movement do you expect? (Our listeners totally called this one) 13% - Between $1 - $2 13% - Between $2 - $3 19% - Between $3 - $4 55% - Over $4 - aka over 23% Volatility Voice Mail: Options #QuestionOfTheWeek $VIX has already hit single digits under @realDonaldTrump. How low will it get during the rest of his term? 29% - It won't break 10 again 22% - Between 9-10 22% - Between 8 - 9 27% - Below 8 Question Number 2: $SNAP closed at $24.50. If #Options were available tomorrow would you rather: 45% - Buy 1 month $24 put 11% - Buy 1 month $25 call 19% - Stay the heck away 25% - I would rather sell premium Listener questions and comments: Comment from Hawkeye - Mark, I call MAJOR umbrage for you taking credit for MY idea of calling Russell "Dr. VIX"! As you can see in the forwarded email below, I have it IN WRITING that I proposed that moniker for the good Dr. back on November 17, 2015. You should feel ASHAMED of yourself in your weak attempt to take credit for my idea, ESPECIALLY since I sat right next to you and Uncle Mike at the Lobster and Meatball fest in Chicago a couple years ago, eating tasty steaks on Sebastian dime. Have you no shame, sir? Is your memory that short? Umbrage! I hereby give you permission to send the residual checks to my PayPal account. On another note, here is another idea that you CAN keep: The business show should use as its motto The Business Show! It is an audio train wreck -- you cannot stop listening no matter how much you know you shouldn't. While I am at it, I really like Nick and the new revitalized Futures shows. Even though I do not trade futures options, I still use the concepts to trade some of the ETFs/ETNs. Get the Typhon guys back on and see if you can get the Viceroy and Don S. back on for a mega-reunion show sometime. Keep up the great work! Hawkeye Question from Kmar65 - Have you all covered the situation with Catalyst and the HFXAX fund recently? I try to get to all the webcasts but must have missed it if you had. Expected max drawdown was 5% and they blew through that. Gives one cause for pause re options strategies. would be great to understand how it happened and how it could/should have been avoided. Thanks in advance! Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. - 11.25 Mark S. - 11.50 Russell - 12.34 Guest - 12.65 This week: Mark L. - 11.55 Mark S. - 11.00 Russell - 12.00

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