Volatility Views

Today, we feature special guest co-host, Don Dale, Managing Member at Equity Risk Control Group. Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash: Hit nearly 15.50 this week Yet another crazy week Russell's Weekly Rundown VIX Options: ADV - 777k, VIX call/put - 3.9, Total 13.7m (10.9m Calls, 2.78m Puts) Earnings Volatility: This season's theme is underperforming. FB, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL & AMZN Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from ILM78 - It seems like the volatility space is dominated by Canadian pension funds. Why is that the case? How's the volatility landscape for U.S. pension and hedge funds out there? Do U.S. pension funds trade a lot of VIX options or OTC? Crystal Ball: Where will the VIX close on Friday? Last week: Mark L. - 9.55 Andrew - 13.25 Kevin - 10.50 Matt - 10.15 Mike - 9.99 Next week: Mark L. - 13.50 Mark S. - 14.00 Russell - 15.67 Don - 17.50 Volatility Views 292: Earnings Volatility, plus VIX Whale Returns Today, we feature special guest co-host, Don Dale, Managing Member at Equity Risk Control Group. Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective. VIX Cash: Hit nearly 15.50 this week Yet another crazy week Russell's Weekly Rundown VIX Options: ADV - 777k, VIX call/put - 3.9, Total 13.7m (10.9m Calls, 2.78m Puts) Earnings Volatility: This season's theme is underperforming. FB, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL & AMZN Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from ILM78 - It seems like the volatility space is dominated by Canadian pension funds. Why is that the case? How's the volatility landscape for U.S. pension and hedge funds out there? Do U.S. pension funds trade a lot of VIX options or OTC? Crystal Ball: Where will the VIX close on Friday? Last week: Mark L. - 9.55 Andrew - 13.25 Kevin - 10.50 Matt - 10.15 Mike - 9.99 Next week: Mark L. - 13.50 Mark S. - 14.00 Russell - 15.67 Don - 17.50

On today's show, a rowdy cohort of crazies, including: Mark Sebastian, Option Pit Matt Thompson, Typhon Capital Mike Thompson, Typhon Capital Kevin Davitt, CBOE Volatility Review: A look back at the week from a volatility perspective VIX Cash is firmly back in the double digits. Kevin's Weekly Rundown VIX Options: ADV - 744k, VIX call/put - 4.1, Total 12.0m (9.65m Calls, 2.34m Puts) Earnings Volatility: Netflix, Intel and Starbucks. Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week Since we're down at #InsideETFs this week we thought we'd make our #Options #QOTW about #ETFOPTIONS. Quite simply - what is your favorite ETF/ETP #option to trade? $SPY $GLD $VXX Other (reply w/answer) Listener Questions and Comments: Question from Cat65 - Are there other vol futures out there aside from VIX? Question from Charlie C - Quick Q for the show - What's the weirdest thing you've seen in the options market? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Russell: 11.99 Matt: 11.5 Mark S.: 10 Mark L. 10.55 This week: Mike: 9.99 Matt : 10.15 Mark S.: 13.25 Mark L.: 9.55 Kevin: 10.5

Volatility Review: Government shutdown moves the market going into the weekend. VIX cash is firmly back in the double digits. Russell's Weekly Rundown: ADV - 746k, VIX call/put - 4.6, Total 10.1m (8.29m Calls, 1.82m Puts Looking back on the VIX whale from last Wednesday. Earnings volatility this week. January has been a rough month for Bitcoin. Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week. Bitcoin futures are currently trading around $11,500. If options existed, how would you trade them? Assuming one-month to expiration would you...? Buy 5% OTM Call Buy 5% OTM Put Sell 5% OTM Covered Call Just Short the Future Listener questions and comments: Comment by TradingProverbs - "More money has been lost trying to anticipate and protect from corrections than actually in them." - Peter Lynch Crystal Ball: Government shutdown related prognostication Last week: Mark L. - 9.55 Andrew - 9.95 Kevin - 9.75 This week: Mark L. - 10.55 Mark S. - 10.00 Russell - 11.99 Matt - 11.50

Volatility Review: It's been a good year for VIX at CBOE - No Vol = No problem. Return of the VIX Whale - 2.87M on Wednesday. We finally have the COT Reports for Bitcoin. Kevin's Weekly Rundown: VIX Options: ADV - 668k VIX call/put - 4, Total 12.9m (10.3m Calls, 2.52m Puts) Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week. Another ";easy"; one to help kick off the New Year. Quite simply - which name are you looking forward to trading Options on during the upcoming earnings season? Your fav not here? Choose ";Other"; and send it in. Best will be shared on the Option Block. Apple (AAPL) Tesla (TSLA) Amazon (AMZN) Other Listener questions and comments: Question from RDuffGordon - My wife reads all of the ";intel"; letters, and told me tonight that CEO's are resigning in droves. The best way to see if this is valid or probable would be a sudden burst of buying of insider puts. Is there such a reporting requirement for, Insiders or recent EX - higher ups which i would expect the sec to require - but all we hear is insider stock ratios etc., but the long put, after 23 years of on floor trading is the ";no brainer"; thing to buy - if one is fairly certain the stock chosen was going to go down, because the 98% winners who risk the entire economy when they sell short puts with abandon need to buy them back one day at a volatility no one could believe ahead of time, as in right now. The insider who quits AAPL may buy puts on Amazon so as to go under the radar. Major sells perhaps on other stocks where the insider who quit quickly knows of another big player(s) who HAS to quit. Finally, what about insiders in or recently of a company buys calls in the VIX? Does that get reported? How long after resigning from a company have to report? I suppose as long as he is above 5 percent of the company he resigned from? THX much- I should know all of this- and that it is perhaps conspiratorial. Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. - 9.25 Mark S. - 9.57 Russell - 9.79 This week: Mark L. - 9.55 Andrew - 9.95 Kevin - 9.75

Volatility Review: Looking back on the top five Volatility Views episodes of 2017. VIX Cash is back in the single digits again. Russell's Weekly Rundown VIX Options: ADV - 668k, VIX call/put - 3.9, Total 10.8m (8.52m Calls, 2.26m Puts) Commodities: Volatility is low but ambiguity is sky high. CBOE files to list 6 bitcoin ETFs after being first major exchange to trade cryptocurrency futures. Happy 9th Birthday to Bitcoin Volatility Voicemail: Listeners have their say 2017 was the "Year that Volatility Died". So our 1st #QOTW for 2018 is a puzzler. Quite simply - where do you think $VIX will close at the end of the year? 14% - Between 7.5-9.99 35% - Between 10- 12.49 14% - Between 12.50 -14.99 37% - Above 15 Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication. Last year's 2017 VIX predictions: Mark L. - Avg 15.50, low 10, high 34.5 Russell - Avg 17.50, low 12.50, high 37 Mark S. - Avg 15, low 10.50, high 24 Next year VIX close at end of 2018: Mark L. - 17.25 Mark S. - 11.01 Kevin - 14.04 Next week: Mark L. - 9.25 Mark S. - 9.57 Russell - 9.79

Volatility Review: A look back at 2017 from a volatility perspective. VIX cash was back in double digits, briefly. Kevin's Weekly Rundown: VIX Options: ADV - 672k, VIX call/put - 4, Total 9.78m (7.83m Calls, 1.94m Puts) Looking back on the 2017: The year without volatility. Which trades stood out to you in 2017? CBOE files to list 6 bitcoin ETFs after being first major exchange to trade cryptocurrency futures. Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. - 9.65 Andrew - 8.99 Russell - 9.25 Where will VIX close at the end of 2018? Mark L. - 17.25 Mark S. - 11.01 Kevin - 14.04

Volatility Review: Looking back on 2017, the year without volatility. VIX has been under 10 for about 45 days this year, and under 12 for a little over 200 days. The numbers: VIX Cash - 9.56 VVIX - 92 CBOE Skew Index - 132.5 Russell's Weekly Rundown: VIX Options: ADV - 721k VIX call/put: - 4, Total 9.38m (7.51m Calls, 1.88m Puts) Commodities: Volatility is low but ambiguity is sky high. Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week. Now it's a party! Bitcoin futures are live on both CME Group & CBOE. But everyone's asking us the $1M question - "When will we get Bitcoin Options?" So we thought we'd ask you: When will we be able to trade options on these futures? Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Listener questions and comments: Comment from FContangotrader - You should call #optionblockchain... forget Bitcoin, if you short $vxx since 2011 now you own an island at the Bahamas, if you own gamma and hedge with vol products, now you own 2 islands. Question from Javier - Is there a Bitcoin VIX from the CBOE? Question from JediGuy - What were your favorite volatility events and trades from 2017? Question from Taj Penaso - Hi, will there be options for bitcoin once the futures are traded?? Or just the futures until there are tradeable ETFs available? Thanks Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark S. - 10 Russell - 9.74 Bill - 8.99 This week: Mark L. - 9.65 Andrew - 8.99 Russell - 9.25

Volatility Review: Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss discuss Bitcoin and Bitcoin Futures at FIA Asia. CBOE Benchmark Index discussion. CBOE Bitcoin futures surge 8% Friday, head for winning first week The numbers: VIX Cash - 9.79 VVIX - 92.77 CBOE Skew Index – 131 Russell's Weekly Rundown VIX Options: ADV - 737k, VIX call/put - 3.6, Total 13.6m (10.7m Calls, 2.99m Puts) Volatility Voicemail: Listener questions and comments Question from Alvanot - Can you trade the VIX index itself? Not the futures. Question from The Financial Grynch‏ - Do you REALLY reckon long options is profitable? Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication Last week: Mark L. - 9.75 Mark S. - 9.15 Ghost of Russell - 35 Bill - 10 This week: Mark S. - 10 Russell - 9.74 Bill - 8.99

Volatility Review: This week we are featuring guest co-host Bill Valentine of Valentine Ventures. The numbers: VIX Cash, VVIX - 96, CBOE Skew Index – 131 VIX Options: ADV - 758k, VIX call/put: 3.6, Total 12.7m (9.95m Calls, 2.79m Puts) Bitcoin launching on 12/10. Question from Tortega - Not a vol question, but what's the deal with the Bitcoin futures and the Gemini index they are based on? Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week The war for #Bitcoin #Derivatives is heating up again. CME Group is launching futures on 12/18. CBOE just announced a 12/10 launch date. Not enough? Nasdaq also announced futures w/ for a planned Q2 2018 launch. With so many choices-How will you trade #Bitcoin in 2018? 52% - CBOE Futures 12/10 27% - CME Futures 12/18 3% - Nasdaq Futures Q2 2018 18% - "Old School" Bitcoin Listener questions and comments: Comment from Mark Clyde Brant - Who is listing options first? Probably CBOE! But Chicago is taking control of BTC exactly as Al Capone took control of booze distribution. He taught the city well! Question from NomNom - I was excited about #bitcoin but this is giving me pause. Crystal Ball: Wild and reckless prognostication. Last week: Mark L. - 10.25 Mark S. - 11.25 Russell - 42.5 This week: Mark L.- 9.75 Mark S. - 9.15 Bill - 10.0 Ghost of Russell - 35

Volatility Review: A look at the week from a volatility perspective. The numbers: VIX Cash - back above 12, briefly VVIX - 90 CBOE Skew Index - 131 VIX Options: ADV - 725K, VIX call/put: 3.7, Total 11.2m (8.68m Calls, 2.56m Puts) VXX - 32 XIV - 109.58 Volatility Voicemail: Options question of the week SPY always dominates the Options volume charts. But what do you think people are actually trading in SPY? Take a guess at the Top OI position in SPY right now. No cheating (or checking with your broker) - use your grey matter & your "gut" to pick the right one. Jan 262 Call Dec 2019 150 Put Dec 280 Call Jan 240 Put Listener questions and comments Question from FContangotrader - I think we have a winner today in TA of $VIX world. Question from CConden - Looks like the winning trade for past few years has been rolling short VIX front month future with a protective call kicker should the worst come to pass. I'm stuck on the call kicker strike. What is the ideal strike/month combo for max gain with protection against apocalypse? Don't want to pay too much for call but also don't want to get run over by the VIX train. Question from Mantauk - What is the actual implied volatility of bitcoin? Question from VonBaron - Seems like Whaley doesn't think people get his creation like they should. Whaley: I don't think people understand it as well as they should. The VIX doesn't trade. It's just a number produced from these 250 S&P 500 option prices. But what does trade are the VIX futures and the VIX options, which are related to VIX but in a strange way. Where VIX is the volatility over the next 30 days, VIX futures is the expectation of the volatility 30 days from now. Those two series don't behave like one another, in fact quite differently. VXX is incredibly actively traded. Would I have thought it would be this actively traded? No, but it is. I think the VIX futures index is particularly staggering. It probably trades more shares in a day than Microsoft. If you look at the turnover ratio, you'll find that it's a huge number. If people were just buying and holding, that number would be much lower. Crystal Ball: Your prognostication headquarters Last week: Mark L. - 9.75 Mark S. - 9.99 Russell - 10.59 This week: Mark L. - 10.25 Mark S. - 11.25