Kevin DiCiurcio
Head of Vanguard's Capital Market Model Development and a research team lead in Vanguard's investment strategy group, responsible for developing and operating the Vanguard Capital Markets Model and informing long-term asset return outlooks and portfolio implications.
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Jan 28, 2026 • 39min
Vanguard's Return Forecasts Explained: What the Percentiles Really Mean with Kevin DiCiurcio (EP.241)
Kevin DiCiurcio, head of Vanguard's Capital Markets Model development and research lead, explains how Vanguard builds and governs its long‑term return forecasts. He breaks down what percentiles mean, contrasts 10‑year versus 30‑year outlooks, and discusses implications for asset allocation, megatrends like AI, and the signals that would change Vanguard's views.
