Joel Becker
Researcher leading METR, a group focused on model evaluation and threat research, known for the Time Horizon evaluations and studies on developer productivity and AI risk.
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Feb 27, 2026 • 56min
METR’s Joel Becker on exponential Time Horizon Evals, Threat Models, and the Limits of AI Productivity
Joel Becker, researcher leading METR (model evaluation and threat research), explains the origin and limits of the Time Horizon chart. He walks through how tasks were chosen and biases in benchmarks. The conversation covers developer productivity studies, milestone-like model jumps, threat modeling for discontinuous takeoff, and trade-offs in building evaluation scaffolds versus real-world deployment.
