Jeffrey Friedman

Dr. Jeffrey Friedman, an associate professor at Dartmouth College, dives into the surprising overconfidence of national security officials. He discusses how these experts often misinterpret uncertainty, with findings showing 90% confidence translates to only 57% accuracy. Key topics include the need for structured feedback, the impact of rapid decision-making on intuition, and effective calibration training that can boost accuracy. Friedman also offers practical steps for individuals and institutions to improve their decision-making processes in a complex world.