Gustavo Medeiros
Head of emerging markets research at Ashmore Group, providing expert analysis on EM fiscal and monetary dynamics, terms of trade, and the impact of commodity and geopolitical shocks on EM economies.
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Mar 13, 2026 • 29min
EM Lens: War-Induced Oil Shocks Aren’t Kind to EM Economies
Gustavo Medeiros, head of emerging markets research at Ashmore Group, provides concise EM analysis. He explores historical oil shocks and why this one could differ. He breaks down winners and losers by terms of trade. He discusses fiscal strain, monetary policy responses, investor flows, frontier vulnerabilities, and how prolonged Gulf supply disruption could reshape capital allocation.
