Clayton Seigle
Policy analyst and author of the CSIS commentary presented in this episode, providing strategic analysis of how military action against Iran could disrupt oil exports and global energy markets.
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Feb 18, 2026 • 14min
If Trump Strikes Iran: Mapping the Oil Disruption Scenarios
Clayton Seigle, a policy analyst and CSIS author, offers strategic analysis of how military action against Iran could roil oil exports and energy markets. He breaks down recent price moves, escalation risks tied to Trump’s threats, vulnerabilities of Gulf oil, four disruption scenarios with escalating impacts, LNG and electricity implications, and limits of bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
