Carlos Algarra
Political scientist at Claremont Graduate University who researches congressional elections and partisan dynamics, author of the article 'Dynamics of Partisan Competition for Legislative Majorities in the U.S.'
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Mar 4, 2026 • 56min
What Predicts Midterm Election Results?
Carlos Algarra, political scientist at Claremont Graduate University who studies congressional elections, explains what drives midterm outcomes. He discusses long-run generic ballot trends, how presidential approval and shifts in policy mood predict congressional vote swings. He also covers why the generic ballot maps to House seats more cleanly than the Senate and how redistricting and candidate quality can alter the math.
