Andrew Courtney
Former Susquehanna International Group senior trader and market maker who now runs Kalshinomics and writes about prediction markets and trading strategies, focusing on probabilistic decision-making and market microstructure.
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Feb 12, 2026 • 57min
“I think of everything as a bet” - Ex-SIG Quant Trader Andrew Courtney
Andrew Courtney, former SIG senior trader turned Kalshinomics founder and Substack writer. He recounts staring at banks of screens, SIG’s poker-forging of probabilistic thinking, and the shift from pit to electronic trading. He explores finding edge in prediction markets, using AI for obscure forecasts, sizing bets with Kelly thinking, and why some markets misprice thanks to hype and liquidity quirks.
