Transistor Radio Episode 1: TSMC's Q4 2021 Earnings
Jan 28, 2022
Dylan and Doug dive into TSMC's impressive Q4 results, revealing a surprising $40–44B capex plan and a bullish revenue forecast. They explore the rising importance of lagging-edge nodes amid shifts in demand from sectors like automotive and IoT. The discussion touches on AMD and NVIDIA's strategies amid supply constraints, as well as the implications of Intel's aggressive roadmap. The podcast also highlights the fragile supply chains and commoditized suppliers shaping the semiconductor landscape, while connecting it all to the growing demand for advanced computing solutions.
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Ramp Type Determines WFE Winners
- Different fab strategies change equipment demand: TSMC ramps known nodes while Intel must spend more on metrology for many new nodes.
- That shifts wafer fab equipment winners toward inspection and process-control players during large-risk ramps.
Secure Capacity With Prepayments Or Commitments
- Demand-strong customers must pay TSMC upfront or commit non-cancellable orders to secure capacity.
- If you need growth, prepare to negotiate prepayments and long-term commitments now.
EUV's Rapid Growth Has A Natural Limit
- EUV layer insertion growth will slow; other technologies (3D, new materials, ALD) become the next spending drivers.
- ASML growth should track WFE, while applied materials and ALD-related vendors gain incremental share.