Radio National Breakfast What Trump's 48 hour deadline could mean for fuel supply chains
Mar 22, 2026
David Leaney, lecturer in international supply chain management at ANU, explains how the Strait of Hormuz crisis threatens fuel flows. He outlines likely near-term price rises and patchy distribution. He quantifies cancelled tanker impacts and suggests practical steps for businesses and individuals. He also highlights broader vulnerabilities to gas, fertilizer and plastics supply chains.
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Small Near-Term Shortfall From Cancelled Tankers
- Australia's immediate fuel shortage is modest, roughly a 5% net drop after refineries redirected exports and boosted output.
- Six cancelled tankers were ~7% of supply but domestic refinery adjustments cut the impact to about 5% over coming weeks.
1973–74 Oil Shock Warns Of Severe Price Risk
- Historical perspective shows severe price spikes are possible, though not inevitable; 1973–74 oil shock caused ~400% price increases.
- Leaney expects rising prices and availability problems but thinks a 1970s-scale shock unlikely.
Cut Fuel Use With Practical Local Actions
- Reduce fuel use through local, practical actions like carpooling, public transport, working from home and walking to nearby shops.
- Prioritise diesel allocation for farmers and regional transport because rural users lack easy alternatives.