Trumponomics How Trump’s Tariffs Are Everywhere and Nowhere
Nov 19, 2025
Join Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations specializing in global trade, and Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics' Chief U.S. Economist, as they dissect the enigma of Trump's tariffs. They explore who really bears the burden of these levies and the surprising resilience of larger firms. The discussion reveals how tariffs may not be yielding the expected outcomes on the trade deficit and inflation. Discover the hidden impacts on smaller businesses and the broader macroeconomic landscape, all while pondering the quirks of trade policy.
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Distribution: Firms Absorb Most Tariff Costs
- Bloomberg's work decomposes who paid the tariffs: about 4% by foreign exporters, ~70% by U.S. intermediate firms, and ~26% by consumers.
- That pass-through has added roughly 0.3 percentage points to core CPI/core PCE inflation, mainly in core goods.
Exemptions Hid Tariff Pain In Big Firms
- Big profitable sectors (tech, pharma) were largely exempted from tariffs, muting headline corporate pain.
- That helps explain why S&P profits and stock prices look strong despite tariff costs hitting other firms.
Q2 Profit Revisions Reveal Margin Squeeze
- National accounts revisions show corporate profits plunged in Q2, revised from about $65bn to $7bn.
- The profit decline concentrated in manufacturing, wholesale trade, and transport-related sectors.